January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on random interplay and timing between waves.

What a dumb fucking hobby.

If we strike out next week I’m probably ready for gusty shower season 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One would have to be some kinda fast walker though damn

I’m glad you took the right information out of that post!  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we strike out next week I’m probably ready for gusty shower season 

But then you’ll miss tracking when we get a March 2001 and March 2013 redux back to back !!!

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How can we miss there, I mean how does that 10 mile wide area of snow miss us???? 

OMG look at that whole county that gets a dusting there!  How can we miss  

Oh Oh Oh….That’s the one!!!!  Look At that!!!!  That’s like 7 whole miles of sleet on the fringe there.  I mean it would take you like a whole hour to walk across that frozen precip zone!  Impressive  

Guys we got this!  

 

The GL low wrecks our chances at 18z. As for the general set up- being just underneath a TPV sliding eastward with relatively weak elongated vorticity ribbons ejecting eastward underneath in fast moving flow, the area of 'enhanced' precip is going to be skinny N to S and stretched W to E. And only part of that is going to be frozen.

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m glad you took the right information out of that post!  

That and that mix zone, besides sleet you could get grapple, freezing rain, snizzle, dipndots all kinds of winter fun!

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The GL low wrecks our chances at 18z. As for the general set up- being just underneath a TPV sliding eastward with relatively weak elongated vorticity ribbons ejecting eastward underneath in fast moving flow, the area of 'enhanced' precip is going to be skinny N to S and stretched W to E. And only part of that is going to be frozen.

On some of the waves sure. There is no GL low on others. The TPV is long gone by that last example. Even the way way out there that cuts to kingdom come has no frozen until it way north.  I’m talking about a larger scale issue not the details of one wave.  This has been going on for years now. I started talking about this a lot in 2021.  I’ve pointed it various times this year. Mid latitude waves aren’t producing the same area of frozen precip to the north of their track at or south of our latitude lately. I’ll go back and find one of my posts from 2021. This same thing. No tpv then. 

[Lowershoresadness]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

Mirtazapine?  Trazadone?  Quetiapine for the cheap seats in the back?  

Don't worry Tron you'll get snow by next tax season

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Explosive diaharrea time

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

On some of the waves sure. There is no GL low on others. The TPV is long gone by that last example. Even the way way out there that cuts to kingdom come has no frozen until it way north.  I’m talking about a larger scale issue not the details of one wave.  This has been going on for years now. I started talking about this a lot in 2021.  I’ve pointed it various times this year. Mid latitude waves aren’t producing the same area of frozen precip to the north of their track at or south of our latitude lately. I’ll go back and find one of my posts from 2021. This same thing. No tpv then. 

I remember. I think that was the winter where we had a really good set up in one particular event with a -NAO, lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes and it snowed in the NW burbs with marginal temps and rained on the coastal plain. That would have historically been a mostly snow event for the entire region.

[CAPE]

Nice discussion from Mount Holly AFD on the prospects for next week-

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Summary...Active weather pattern with the storm track much closer to our region. Much colder air will be lurking to the north/west and some of this is forecast to settle south, however the extent of it will depend on storm tracks. Synoptic Overview...As more energy is shifted into western Canada from the Pacific, more of a trough is across central to eastern Canada with this dipping into the U.S. This setup tends to favor the baroclinic zone shifting farther south and east and therefore between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. The ensemble guidance continues to show this overall pattern setting up, however there remains differences in the handling of the Canadian trough and also the southern energy. The northern trough however may provide a more notable piece of energy along the front and that may track near our area Tuesday and Wednesday. One of the questions that remains is how much cold air can press southward and meet up with moisture as this system slides on by. Given the trough that is forecast, the surface low reflections should be quick moving. The timing also varies among the guidance. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in this time frame, however the pattern looks favorable for energy sliding near or especially just to our south with moisture potentially teaming up with colder air arriving from the northwest.

For Tuesday through Thursday...The evolving pattern in the model guidance, including ensembles, continues to point toward a farther south and east storm track from what we have been dealing with. This is courtesy of the storm track off the Pacific more into western Canada, which drives more of a trough from central/eastern Canada down into the eastern U.S. This tends to favor the baroclinic zone setting up between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. This shifting pattern, while evident in the guidance, carries differences regarding the timing and also magnitude of southern energy sliding along a baroclinic zone. There looks to be at least two waves that traverse the thermal gradient corridor during this time frame, although the details are much more less certain. What may occur is a series of weak and strung out surface features tracking along the boundary, however decent lift can accompany these especially along the front and into the colder air to its north. Some guidance has trended drier for Wednesday, and also quicker bringing in some precipitation later Tuesday. With time however, the baroclinic zone may be shoved farther south and east as the upper-level trough shifts east and potentially strong/cold high pressure builds in from the west.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, better through Day 10.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, better through Day 10.

P17 or bust 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, better through Day 10.

Perspective- the favorable period was to begin around the 2nd of Feb and last through maybe the 10th. At this juncture a 2-3 inch mean across the region through the 6th looks pretty good to me.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Perspective- the favorable period was to begin around the 2nd of Feb and last through maybe the 10th. At this juncture a 2-3 inch mean across the region through the 6th looks pretty good to me.

It does…but what’s 2-3 inches going to come from?  Wave one looks like it’s dying on the vine.  Wave 2 seems to be trending toward rain.  Nothing after it appears.  2-3 inch mean seems skewed by some overamped members.  Is that wrong?  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It does…but what’s 2-3 inches going to come from?  Wave one looks like it’s dying on the vine.  Wave 2 seems to be trending toward rain.  Nothing after it appears.  2-3 inch mean seems skewed by some overamped members.  Is that wrong?  

There is clearly spread among the members, but wave one, which looks like the weaker one at this point, is still 4 days out.

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I remember. I think that was the winter where we had a really good set up in one particular event with a -NAO, lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes and it snowed in the NW burbs with marginal temps and rained on the coastal plain. That would have historically been a mostly snow event for the entire region.

Yea that’s the one. That was maybe the moment my thoughts really started to solidify on some things. It was an eye opener for me. 
But there were several waves that winter too that had anemic precip once into the cold sector. There was a wave in late Jan that some places got like a half inch from but that was it. Decently amplified wave slid by to the south and it has barely any precip into the cold. This has been a repetitive thing. Not every time obviously. Nothing happens 100%. But this is about margins. If we lose some here and some there sooner or later we find ourselves in the mess we’re in now. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s the one. That was maybe the moment my thoughts really started to solidify on some things. It was an eye opener for me. 
But there were several waves that winter too that had anemic precip once into the cold sector. There was a wave in late Jan that some places got like a half inch from but that was it. Decently amplified wave slid by to the south and it has barely any precip into the cold. This has been a repetitive thing. Not every time obviously. Nothing happens 100%. But this is about margins. If we lose some here and some there sooner or later we find ourselves in the mess we’re in now. 

I mean, I see it, but at some point we just have to ride with what we got. Maybe those -EPO  patterns with cross polar flow that are traditionally dry and cold/warm and mild, but do produce at times, become more prevalent and we have to roll the dice there. I am hoping we end up with a favorable CP mod Nino next winter with blocking to see where we are at this point. That has obv been the gold standard for MA winters. As of now Nino chances by next Fall are greater than 50%.

[WxUSAF]

Nope nope nope not going to talk about that

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nope nope nope not going to talk about that

We don't talk about Warmo no-no-no...

[IronTy]

4 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

Why?  Not joking or putting it down.  Just seriously want to know! Is there an ecological benefit?  Or do you just think they are cool and they are like pets?

But yeah, those look similar to the tomato plant eaters.  And the horn worms they try to sell us at the pet store for my son’s bearded dragon.

Strolling past with a bit of a side eye because I've been made fun of a thousand times over the years....but I'll assume you're legit...

Giant silkmoths are an indicator species.  They require uninterrupted forests in the case of some species like Lunas and regalis or imperialis..  There's a certain level of "wildness" you can hope to achieve when trying to hunt for cocoons or caterpillars of each species. If you have a healthy number of wild silkmoths then that means your local wild acreage is mature. 

There are few things in my life that give me such joy as thinking back to my childhood as I hunted for cocoons along the side of the expressway or local highways.  It taught me all about botany and conservation.   In the middle of winter, with snow on the ground, there's a really significant feeling of the wild as you hunt for cocoons under the sound of great horned owls and their mating calls.   You either get it or you don't.  

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

First wave is on life support.   WB 18Z EPS took a step backward.

[Interstate]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If we strike out next week I’m probably ready for gusty shower season 

Nope. As much as we have been thru. We will get a MECS or BECS by March 7th

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Strolling past with a bit of a side eye because I've been made fun of a thousand times over the years....but I'll assume you're legit...

Giant silkmoths are an indicator species.  They require uninterrupted forests in the case of some species like Lunas and regalis or imperialis..  There's a certain level of "wildness" you can hope to achieve when trying to hunt for cocoons or caterpillars of each species. If you have a healthy number of wild silkmoths then that means your local wild acreage is mature. 

There are few things in my life that give me such joy as thinking back to my childhood as I hunted for cocoons along the side of the expressway or local highways.  It taught me all about botany and conservation.   In the middle of winter, with snow on the ground, there's a really significant feeling of the wild as you hunt for cocoons under the sound of great horned owls and their mating calls.   You either get it or you don't.  

 

 

 

Respect, this post is nature woke AF. I usually think about wildness in terms of physically larger species, especially birds. But I personally need to learn more about our insect brethren. Is this post banter? Yes. Is this thread a disaster and clearly everyone is intoxicated? Yes. Do I take mirtazipine? Yes, agree with @mappy, it's a lifesaver and mental healthcare is healthcare. Go amwx mid atl

[Wonderdog]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

It does…but what’s 2-3 inches going to come from?  Wave one looks like it’s dying on the vine.  Wave 2 seems to be trending toward rain.  Nothing after it appears.  2-3 inch mean seems skewed by some overamped members.  Is that wrong?  

Brother,  I know it's not on anyone's radar but I've watched that storm in the SE precipitation very slowly inch it’s way north to where it's reached se VA on 1/30. Cold air is close to the north.. All we need is for a miracle to happen and for somehow have that juicy storm to make a left and move up the coast. Doable?

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

One would have to be some kinda fast walker though damn

Most likely it is not reaching the ground so you wouldn't have to walk too fast the result is the same. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

 

That looks like many truck stops on 95 through VA to Ga..  The best part is usually there is a sign that says either we take pride in clean bathrooms or please keep our facilities clean. 

[jayyy]

Oy vay


.

[toolsheds]

4 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

 

I am soooooooo sorry for posting this, but the song keeps playing in my head. 

 

 

[stormtracker]

While we wait for the next fail suite.  It's safe

 

 

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

While we wait for the next fail suite.  It's safe

 

 

Legendary, I am deceased