Jebman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 hours ago, stormtracker said: This is it. If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. You WILL. This Forum is already an outstanding SUCCESS and all of you are the finest human beings that ever lived! The Mid Atlantic stands a damn good chance of getting #FebuBuried! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, Heisy said: 00z GFS has the Cape storm . Which one.....he's had so many storms get delayed ive lost count haha I'm claiming all storms between Feb 1 and 8. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I'm claiming all storms between Feb 1 and 8. You can't claim the Roger Smith Storm tho for that period. The solar flares spoke to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You can't claim the Roger Smith Storm tho for that period. The solar flares spoke to him Guess I'll skip that one lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Still looks like colder air in place and active look on the GEFS beginning Feb 1-2 timeframe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still looks like colder air in place and active look on the GEFS beginning Feb 1-2 timeframe. 10 days away. Is this the closest at range we've been the entire winter? We can do this....the force is with us. LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 hours ago, stormtracker said: This is it. If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO ticked south with the Wed. storm….0Z compared to 18Z. we have a thread for Wednesday, please post these there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, mappy said: we have a thread for Wednesday, please post these there Oops… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS, one of the better long range runs of the season, will be disappointed if we all don’t see some snow cover in the next two weeks. Got to like the hits to the south as well at this range. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 days away. Is this the closest at range we've been the entire winter? We can do this....the force is with us. LFG! You'll have to see @yoda for that... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Biggest difference I see right now is cmc/euro bury/cutoff energy in west around day 6-7. So far GFS doesn’t do this. Probably why it speeds up everything.We’ll see…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 This winter reminds me so much of 96-97 when the cold would simply not come south and east. Look at the temp maps for the northern us and southern Canada at 120-144 hours. There is cold nearby. It just won’t move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think we will have a window around Feb 7-21 for wintery conditions. The year started off with a colder than normal Russia/Siberia. Flagstaff and that area has now seen 3 snowstorm hits, and Japan according to this is about to get record cold (such an extreme anomaly doesn't usually happen there). The theme continues to be 35-50N, with 45N more consistent for cold/shots. It hasn't hit the Mid Atlantic yet, but it has hit 3 other areas around the same latitude this year. (I made a note of this before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Not sure when I’ve ever seen a model show chance after chance like the gfs just did. There’s real potentially there. I’d even say potential for a remarkable run. Wave after wave rolling to our south with cold available 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This winter reminds me so much of 96-97 when the cold would simply not come south and east. Look at the temp maps for the northern us and southern Canada at 120-144 hours. There is cold nearby. It just won’t move. It's beyond frustrating. I've noticed it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure when I’ve ever seen a model show chance after chance like the gfs just did. There’s real potentially there. I’d even say potential for a remarkable run. Wave after wave rolling to our south with cold available Still have to shake this -PNA tendency. I say ~Feb7-8-> we start getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z Euro drops a legit lope of the TPV into the Great Lakes / Northeast the first weekend of February. Get 850 temps to almost -25 over the entire LWX CWA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro drops a legit lope of the TPV into the Great Lakes / Northeast the first weekend of February. Get 850 temps to almost -25 over the entire LWX CWA. That’s not good. Say hello to wind and partly cloudy. And miserable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s not good. Say hello to wind and partly cloudy. And miserable Not necessarily. I'd say it's more likely we get cold for a few days, then the next 1000mb Low that arrives will bully a 1058 High out of southeastern Quebec and we'll end up with cold rain. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 On 1/22/2023 at 12:59 PM, CAPE said: Ten+ days out and this is only a 6 hour panel. You get the general idea. Will Take P-4 or P13 !! Let’s Go!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 On 1/8/2023 at 3:38 PM, Cobalt said: Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. So it looks like delayed, not denied on this tanking of the EPO, which begins close to the 25th, but peaks near the 27th-28th (so entering the short range). Impressive poleward ridging too. In fact, the Euro is so extensive with this ridging that it ends up intruding the AO domain near the end of the run, which is in clown range but has some decent ensemble support. Now I guess the question would be whether this EPO tank does what the previous two did not, which is produce snow potential in our area. Both the November 13th-20th and December 20th-27th periods saw average temperatures ~9-14F below average for all of the Mid Atlantic region, but the few events that took place during those stretches put us into the warmer sector of those systems. Hopeful that prime climo and that stout PV lobe can help get us on the board. I also recall reading that extreme November -EPO events were correlated with high latitude blocking returning later in the winter, so maybe we will see a return of that some time in mid-late February. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yeah I’ll take it- I know it’s fantasy but I like it 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Not necessarily. I'd say it's more likely we get cold for a few days, then the next 1000mb Low that arrives will bully a 1058 High out of southeastern Quebec and we'll end up with cold rain. Truth but at least Ji can make another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 this thread sure is quiet for prime climo....... not much optimism for early February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Impressively cold look on the 12z EPS into the first week of Feb. No clear signal for precip at any given point yet, but overall suggestive of multiple chances with the boundary in a favorable spot. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: this thread sure is quiet for prime climo....... not much optimism for early February? GFS and Euro suggest a coastal forms for 2/3-2/4. Too far out to buy in but first time I've seen them both suggest it. I think I am most hopeful for this 2/1-2/5 time period but just waiting to see more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Impressively cold look on the 12z EPS into the first week of Feb. No clear signal for precip at any given point yet, but overall suggestive of multiple chances with the boundary in a favorable spot. Haven’t seen that look coast to coast in long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: Haven’t seen that look coast to coast in long time. If that is close to reality probably the only failure modes are congrats SVA/NC, or bone dry. The latter seems less likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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