rjvanals Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Story of 2023 no snow on the northern periphery of the system as @psuhoffmankeeps harping on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: definitely less suppressive than 00z. TPV isn't as far SE and the 250mb jet is more poleward. S/W is a touch less amped, but I think those changes will lead to a net positive this run in terms of avoiding a squashed system ya it wont be squashed but that looks like a setup for rain imo. Again, the "win" scenario is very very very narrow here. The ridge axis at the mid and upper levels is right under us so the only way to suppress the boundary is with the TPV. But that leaves no room for a system. We need the perfect combo of a strong wave and perfectly timed TPV/High for it to work. Weak wave, squashed. Strong wave, TPV relaxes too much...rain. If you run all the scenarios the odds favor either squashed or rain. That's why we keep seeing MOST runs flip back and forth between those 2 extremes with very few actually showing that in between snowy solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Heh...rainstorm on the Euro. What a time to be alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: ya it wont be squashed but that looks like a setup for rain imo. Again, the "win" scenario is very very very narrow here. The ridge axis at the mid and upper levels is right under us so the only way to suppress the boundary is with the TPV. But that leaves no room for a system. We need the perfect combo of a strong wave and perfectly timed TPV/High for it to work. Weak wave, squashed. Strong wave, TPV relaxes too much...rain. If you run all the scenarios the odds favor either squashed or rain. That's why we keep seeing MOST runs flip back and forth between those 2 extremes with very few actually showing that in between snowy solution. We don’t do tiny windows well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 @brooklynwx99 so far today the trends are opposite what we want. I don't think seeing the confluence relax is a good thing...what we actually want is MORE confluence but also a more amplified wave. We want them to slam into each other and fight it out. That is the snow solution with upside. A weak wave has very little potential here. If the confluence remains strong it gets squashed. IF the confluence relaxes you get this euro result. Either way we lose with a weak wave. Today the confluence trended weaker and the wave trended weaker across guidance. A lot of time to turn those trends around but they are going the opposite way of what I want to see right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: We don’t do tiny windows well I cant really relate to tiny things 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Sorry guys...I really want this to go the other way here. I am honestly not trying to be a downer, if I liked what I saw today I would say so. But I honestly think today things trended away from what we wanted after the last 24 hours we did see some progress. I will update the numbers for a combined ensemble snow probabilities when the EPS rolls out soon but just warning you the GEPS and GEFS both took a step in the wrong direction so unless the EPS looks a lot better the numbers probably moved the wrong way from 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 It's over boys. Look at these petunias. They're gazing to the southern sun right now knowing their time will come in a matter of days. Maybe next year their foe will rise and slay them in the name of driveways covered and mulches caved. But not this day. Their progeny will live to know the glory days of the snowless Mid-Atlantic winters. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We don’t do tiny windows well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Betting that most areas east of the mountains currently being shown as snow will end up as rain. From about Lynchburg south. Bump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bricked up tiny windows are even more difficult. Perhaps our final new thread name for Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 I'm tired yall 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm tired yall Be sure to keep us informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Bricked up tiny windows are even more difficult. Perhaps are new thread name another brick in the wall? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Be sure to keep us informed. You should change your name to SalTy 1 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm tired yall 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: Perfectly encapsulates what I was trying to say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's actually been a wet Winter so far If we get cold, I think we can get some snow (PNA-NAO have been correlated and when the Pacific is good, I fear NAO could be positive). Also 2/13 -NAO in December have all time been wetter than average, like we have seen this year. If you use counter-analogs (+NAO/dry December) we get a large composite that has a stronger +NAO February signal than -NAO strength in December (which I picked and chose analogs from!) Pretty incredible correlation there. No one would probably guess that this has been a shutout (-AO/NAO) v (reminds me a lot of 97-98) November and December were wet for me. January has been very dry. Only 51% of normal first 27 days at 1.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 36 minutes ago, LP08 said: As @psuhoffmanstated earlier, the win zone is incredibly tiny. I'm not smart enough to know what we need out of this set up but that's a small stripe to aim for. I'm putting together a bulletin board of what we need to go right for visual support 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The next 6 weeks are going to deliver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You should change your name to SalTy See? You still got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The next 6 weeks are going to deliver deliver enough precipitation to make our lawns look really lush this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This looks right: the Brunswick snow hole is alive and well on WB 12Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I will hug the WB Canadian ensemble through Day 10…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: I will hug the WB Canadian ensemble through Day 10…. How have the ensemble forecasts been treatin' us the last 4 weeks? How has that worked out for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: How have the ensemble forecasts been treatin' us the last 4 weeks? How has that worked out for us? Uh, yeah. Also, has the Canadian ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This is gonna be a power play between two big forces, the ridge to the south and the TPV. The stripe of snow that will end up falling is gonna be narrow. No way the models pin that down from here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 But the probability maps y’all! Gotta get ‘em in 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How have the ensemble forecasts been treatin' us the last 4 weeks? How has that worked out for us? 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Uh, yeah. Also, has the Canadian ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How have the ensemble forecasts been treatin' us the last 4 weeks? How has that worked out for us? Trying to find something positive in the 12Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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