brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Today's guidance took a step back towards a problem that to me is the biggest limiting factor in this setup and has been a repetitive issue recently. Lack of interaction between moisture associated with the southern stream and the cold associated with the northern stream. I've been mentioning this for years...it was a HUGE problem in 2021 when we had blocking and storm after storm took a perfect track. I think it gets less attention when we are in periods with a bad storm track because so much else is wrong that we don't pay attention...but this has been a theme for a while now and its a big problem. Last night we saw some improvement with this but today the guidance seems back to not having any interaction between streams. That is what leads to this.. Wave 1 Where is the snow??? look at the pathetic "win" zone Wave 2 Again where is the win there? Wave 3 And its not just a here problem...the next wave isn't even close for us but it wouldn't matter what the track was because look... There is really very little to no snowfall with most of the waves, and this has been a theme a lot of the time recently. The GFS shows a bit more snow but if you look closer its probably a faulty artifact of its faulty cold bias in the thermals and a liberal precip type algorithm. Because look at the surface temps on the GFS when that 2-4" of snow is supposed to be falling to our south. It's 34-38 degrees and that is on a model with a cold bias. The CMC precip type output is likely closer to reality if that is the actual track and interaction between streams. Not enough attention is being pain, IMO, to this. It's a big part of our struggles in recent years. We should not see wave after wave in January and February with virtually no snow on the northern side of the track at the mid latitudes. When there is almost no snow until you get north of 40* with any wave...well...thats kinda a problem for us given our latitude! They actually corrected the cold bias with the last "upgrade". From what i've heard that since that upgrade it has somewhat of a warm bias; they overcorrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: They actually corrected the cold bias with the last "upgrade". From what i've heard that since that upgrade it has somewhat of a warm bias; they overcorrected. Hope so, the snow it shows falls at ~35*. But the larger issue remains. Even when there is snow with these waves it’s a relatively small geographic area with marginal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue My “hopium” take is that the models may not be showing this now, but as a wave (in actual reality, not modeled reality) approaches the east coast with all those record warm waters, it’ll get more amped and draw the cold air in on the backwside. Again, a dose of hopium. Maybe just because I’m in a good mood as we’re about to head to the mountains soon. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 We are at DEFCON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue I’m not necessarily saying this is related to anything else. Two things can be true. But it’s been a repetitive issue in recent years. I’ve pointed out over the last several years often there is very little frozen precip associated with mid latitude waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: My “hopium” take is that the models may not be showing this now, but as a wave (in actual reality, not modeled reality) approaches the east coast with all those record warm waters, it’ll get more amped and draw the cold air in on the backwside. Again, a dose of hopium. Maybe just because I’m in a good mood as we’re about to head to the mountains soon. Seemingly everything has trended amped closer in this season, so it would fit the trend, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope so, the snow it shows falls at ~35*. But the larger issue remains. Even when there is snow with these waves it’s a relatively small geographic area with marginal temps. Yeah, agree on those issues. This is pretty much the most disappointing Winter in my life and I'm an Antique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Seemingly everything has trended amped closer in this season, so it would fit the trend, imo Not too much though, or they’ll cut like all the others. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: My “hopium” take is that the models may not be showing this now, but as a wave (in actual reality, not modeled reality) approaches the east coast with all those record warm waters, it’ll get more amped and draw the cold air in on the backwside. Again, a dose of hopium. Maybe just because I’m in a good mood as we’re about to head to the mountains soon. Hope ur right. If not, and this keeps up the rest of the season, we'll need plenty Opium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not too much though, or they’ll cut like all the others. Indeed--As psu and others have alluded to, the upside scenario is gonna be a bit of a tight balance. Models probably aren't gonna figure out the exact timing of the confluence and such from Day 6/7. Interesting enough window nonetheless (low bar to meet, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 FWIW the GEPS disagrees with the CMC and actually looks decent with the second wave. let's see what the ECMWF / EPS think in a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We are at DEFCON 1 i think we've been there for a bit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not too much though, or they’ll cut like all the others. A cutter in this setup is fine as there would almost certainly be some solid CAD in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I think LR models have a La Nina bias, and are weighing this too heavily: result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 i would take a cutter that guarantees me a period of heavy snow than a slider that gets me a dusting to an inch. as i said--we need a cutter! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i would take a cutter that guarantees me a period of heavy snow than a slider that gets me a dusting to an inch. as i said--we need a cutter! Cmc showed a cutter yesterday that took us from single digits lows to 50s and rain in a matter of hours lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 In reviewing the comments of the last 3 hours I see quite a few comments about the winter Enso condition and snow. My general opinion about La Nina has been that my area is more likely to be dry winter or summer. I have liked El Nino in the winter because of an encouraged robust STJ and Virginia often being on the north cold side of systems. Looking back at snow drought years the past couple of days has surprised me. Two out of 4 significant snow drought years from the past 50 years have been El Nino's. A week ago I would have bet that all 4 snow droughts would have been Nina's or neutral. 1972-73 DJF +1.8 Nino 5 inches of snow, 1991 - 92 DJF +1.7 Nino 3.05 inches of snow Last winter was a DJF -1.0 Nina, yet I received above normal snowfall at 28.50 inches. These stats throw some cold water on the idea of always better with El Nino, at least for the Central Shenandoah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, stormy said: In reviewing the comments of the last 3 hours I see quite a few comments about the winter Enso condition and snow. My general opinion about La Nina has been that my area is more likely to be dry winter or summer. I have liked El Nino in the winter because of an encouraged robust STJ and Virginia often being on the north cold side of systems. Looking back at snow drought years the past couple of days has surprised me. Two out of 4 significant snow drought years from the past 50 years have been El Nino's. A week ago I would have bet that all 4 snow droughts would have been Nina's or neutral. 1972-73 DJF +1.8 Nino 5 inches of snow, 1991 - 92 DJF +1.7 Nino 3.05 inches of snow Last winter was a DJF -1.0 Nina, yet I received above normal snowfall at 28.50 inches. These stats throw some cold water on the idea of always better with El Nino, at least for the Central Shenandoah. It's actually been a wet Winter so far If we get cold, I think we can get some snow (PNA-NAO have been correlated and when the Pacific is good, I fear NAO could be positive). Also 2/13 -NAO in December have all time been wetter than average, like we have seen this year. If you use counter-analogs (+NAO/dry December) we get a large composite that has a stronger +NAO February signal than -NAO strength in December (which I picked and chose analogs from!) Pretty incredible correlation there. No one would probably guess that this has been a shutout (-AO/NAO) v (reminds me a lot of 97-98) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 ECMWF doesn't look like it'll be as suppressed as the GFS with the second wave more amplified wave and more downstream ridging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: lol Que? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 might not do it this run, but the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Some light mix moving into DCA at 135 it's mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 definitely less suppressive than 00z. TPV isn't as far SE and the 250mb jet is more poleward. S/W is a touch less amped, but I think those changes will lead to a net positive this run in terms of avoiding a squashed system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 850s are a torch at 144. 0c is in central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 the high is off the coast...once again...and once again rain is on the menu..best served cold I suppose...it a new version of the same problem...its too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Que? Just enjoying a couple of board residents going at it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 As @psuhoffmanstated earlier, the win zone is incredibly tiny. I'm not smart enough to know what we need out of this set up but that's a small stripe to aim for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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