stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Ji said: at this point, i would take a 6-10 inch front end dump before it turns into a historic ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 @mattie g Thats a beast 1008 L heading north there.... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, LP08 said: @mattie g Thats a beast 1008 L heading north there.... you probably want a 1008 low as opposed to a 997 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: just off the top of my head PD2 was north for a few runs around day 5. Then it went south then back north but not as far. I remember about a week out worrying about rain at Penn State. Late Feb 2007 there was a wave supposed to go through PA and ended up a DC area bullseye with 3-6”. March 2014 there were 2 storms that ended up south from where they were 4-5 days out The Feb 2015 4-8” to ice storm trended south A wave in Feb 2018 trended south from 4 days out Dec 2018 ugh even ended up missing most of us south after looking great 5 days out Even the storm last weekend trended southeast after looking like a cutter into a perfect track coastal it just didn’t matter, gave me 1.7” so celebration lol But your point is valid in that it’s more common the other way. I’d guess 75/25 But it can happen. I think the reason we don’t think about those as much is more often a south trend ends up a hit here so we don’t care about the bust. That’s simple geography. There is only so far south any mid lat amplified wave of significant can end up. We’re way closer to the southern envelope of possible tracks than the north. So a north trend is way more likely to screw us than a south one. If anyone could remember I knew you could lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Nice storm, just too close to warmth it appears to me right now. Hopefully I'm wrong. N and W of upper Mont county is all snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 54 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Go back to 2013 - 2014 for trends that moved south! It was a very odd year and we just seemed to be in the right place balancing cold and the SE Ridge. Rare and unlike anything I had ever seen! Your right about 2014. Odd year in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yeah at 222, we all rain, except western MD and extreme Northern VA and western VA mtns. Sigh 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah at 222, we all rain, except western MD and extreme Northern VA. Sigh the high isnt in the greatest place of all time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 storm cancel jk I would actually be worried about suppression rather than a cutter with the TPV in that spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Paleocene said: Hey... Stop stealing my meme. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 s/w behind this is coming...just not sure if it's good or bad yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 slight timing difference and its a different solution. Not worrying about 222 hours.....we havent even had anything legit to track from 132-144...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: s/w behind this is coming...just not sure if it's good or bad yet It is always the next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 This run shows how small the margin for error is. The high is 12 hours faster and so we change to rain this run even though the wave is actually weaker initially. That high has to be timed exactly perfect or it won’t work. There is nothing in the flow that will stop a cutter once the high starts to exit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah at 222, we all rain, except western MD and extreme Northern VA and western VA mtns. Sigh What happened to this massive cold push finally in place?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What happened to this massive cold push finally in place?? You tell me? All I know is it sucks that it's not there now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 euro also has some backend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 h5 at 240 is intriguing. Mets and pro amateurs can probably extrapolate. I for damn sure ain't 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You tell me? All I know is it sucks that it's not there now On to the eps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: euro also has some backend Backend stuff? @ravensrule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: You tell me? All I know is it sucks that it's not there now We are too far south to just rely on cold. We need a mechanism for the cold to resist a southerly flow and the boundary trying to press back north where it actually belongs. Any wave will try to lift the thermal boundary. In this case the fact it’s cold at the surface won’t overcome the fact we’re ridging out at the mid levels which drive the storm track unless we get either extremely lucky with a wave that’s too weak to push north but just strong enough to clip us with some precip…wave 1 scenario on the euro, or get that high to time up dead perfectly so the storm literally slams into it like the 0z. Even in this setup we need a lot of help. It’s not actually a great longwave setup got a big snow here. It’s not impossible. We could get lucky. But it’s flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 This is the one....Feb 12! Lock it in : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah at 222, we all rain, except western MD and extreme Northern VA and western VA mtns. Sigh It’s not 0z, but I’d take it in a hot minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s not 0z, but I’d take it in a hot minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: This is the one....Feb 12! Lock it in : Oh you think you got jokes now 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not 0z, but I’d take it in a hot minute So would I but… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Still going (light) at 144. So looks like the GFS event, just a bit later What did the snow map look like for just this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So would I but… lol...its super fun being on the edge of the rain snow line at 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ji said: this aint the 18 inch event the euro had at 00z right? It not. But I think if we are going to snow in this godforsaken Nina this is how it will happen though. A stalled front with waves riding the boundary. And it better happen over the next couple of weeks. Because after that winter is over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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