Terpeast Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Hard to believe we get absolutely shut out. I mean...even our lowest year at 0.7" managed 0.5" of those in January, lol Well ya better start believing it because the sooner you accept such an outcome the easier it’ll get. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Well ya better start believing it because the sooner you accept such an outcome the easier it’ll get. Like I said earlier, I’ve enrolled in Snowblowers Anonymous 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Well ya better start believing it because the sooner you accept such an outcome the easier it’ll get. I have muted expectations...but just going off of history...even we aren't THAT mediocre. If we can't break through with something big, I'd bet we'll get something where we measure just enough not to break that futility record, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You guys are weard.. GFS will show snow or ice at 00z. Ya you’re right…. In Nebraska 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: You guys are funny. You know how it’s gonna go. Cold and blustery and damp in March. Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April. “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?” May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather. It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants. 100% chance this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: You guys are funny. You know how it’s gonna go. Cold and blustery and damp in March. Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April. “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?” May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather. It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants. How would that happen with SE ridge being what it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How would that happen with SE ridge being what it is? You should know the pattern will be epic in late March but alas it will be too late and we will ask where this pattern was in Feb…take that to the bank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 -PNA signal in March.. doubt we get any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You should know the pattern will be epic in late March but alas it will be too late and we will ask where this pattern was in Feb…take that to the bank Yeah but again though...given this year? I have my doubts...what, is the dang SER gonna just suddenly disappear at the start of March? Lol I mean I know the nina is on the way out, but even still...ehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 +9 at 850mb 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: +9 at 850mb Almost home….EVERYTHING IS THE SAME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: +9 at 850mb And the wind is blowing 332 mph!! Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Icon at end of run. still think gfs is out to lunch holding energy so far back. Think we’re closer to an event on the models then people think. Just gotta get lucky for once. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, Heisy said: Icon at end of run. still think gfs is out to lunch holding energy so far back. Think we’re closer to an event on the models then people think. Just gotta get lucky for once . The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMH 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: +9 at 850mb that's that January weather!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMH Absolutely agree with your point about the op runs and such. But I will say though...if you indeed maintain general optimism for the season even in the face of this...sir that is commendable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: +9 at 850mb Are you in the eye of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB Can seasonal….only 10 months to go…. See me in mid August. That is when I start becoming interested in the pattern for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 135 wtf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if next week does indeed fail it won't be from suppresion...I'd bet my next paycheck on that too if I were a gambler, lol Ain't no way with that ridge being what it is that the moisture gets suppresed! Now interestingly only the 18z gfs has shown a cutter...everybody else has shown moisture south. Something to watch, I suppose... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 This is a much better look, not sure if it will deliver but isn’t holding the energy all the way back towards California this run. Out ahead is more of like a post frontal event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Canadian tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good..no, GREAT run, haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 00z cmc was a little bit off from showing a big event. As is gets some light snow into the mid Atlantic This was setup leading into it, just a little slower with southern energy and this is a great setup. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Canadien tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good run, haha)Yep, timing was a bit off with NS energy so it got squashed, but it wasn’t far off from doing what we wanted. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Won’t make another post unless euro does something fun tonight, but huge steps in right direction tonight for this event. Pretty sure 00z icon was going to lead to a MECS. Both GFS and CMC were strength/timing changes from being a lot better Night all . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Alright I lied, one more post lol…. Here was cmc early on, if that southern energy is slower/NS energy faster then you have a lot more room for low to form. As is, with this winter I’d prefer things to look squashed at this range anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMHIt’s ridiculous man. It’s 1/25, models can’t get anything right outside of D7-10 and waffle back and forth every 6 hours, yet people are like “welp… February and early March are a lost cause!” Perhaps our bad luck continues and the rest of the winter is a shutout, but let’s analyze as we go along and not fill this thread up with the doom and gloom talk 24/7. We have a place for that on this subforum. I know it sucks not getting snow, and yeah, it’s been bad before but “never quite this bad”, but I don’t fully buy that. It hasn’t been “quite this bad” since we began keeping records, and the periods that were awful during record keeping years were pretty damn close to being THIS bad. 6, even 10” of snow in any given direction when analyzing annual mean historic snowfall isn’t cause to jump off a bridge and say it’ll never snow again or say that we’ll never see a great winter again. That’s often the difference between hitting or missing on one nor’easter. Last year was also rough holistically, but like cape said… we could have just as easily seen a 25-30” winter along the 95 corridor with some very minor tweaks to any given setup. We actually had a sustained period of cold and snow chances, but many of them hit NW, NE, or E of 90%+ of this sub. We had a ton of very near misses.YES, let’s use this thread to analyze patterns and be brutally honest about what they mean for our weather, which as of late has typically meant no snow, but the incessant need to always say “we’re fucked” is speaking out of pure emotion. Let’s keep that talk in banter and the will it ever snow again thread. The doom and gloom is exhausting. I’m not talking about seeing an ensemble run and stating why a person thinks it means it’ll be hard to snow. That’s what this thread is for. I’m talking about the constant “it’s over” banter and talk of CC/AGW or how shitty the MA is for snow that follows that analysis. This thread thrives when we analyze and have good discussions about teleconnections, 500mb patterns, etc. Otherwise we end up having to make another new thread after 1,000 posts because it’s another train wreck. Apologies for the rant, but it’s frustrating trying to parse through all of the bullshit when you’re just trying to find useful analysis from members / METS in a thread that’s meant to be for analysis, not our feelings about lack of snow. I’m just as frustrated as the next guy about our luck the past 2 winters, but it’s the weather, and snow does still exist if peoples souls truly need to go see it. I took a long weekend to visit some buddies in upstate NY and saw a nice 7” snowstorm. It was refreshing. Just hoping February into early march brings some snow so we this forum can get back on track. I appreciate folks like Cape, Heisy, PSU, brooklynwx, and others who attempt to analyze what they’re seeing on models and keep this thread on the tracks. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 And the wind is blowing 332 mph!! Lol.Lol that's the plane speed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: And the wind is blowing 332 mph!! Lol. So basically a Cat 5 under each wing? Sounds a bit turbulent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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