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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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4 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

At least the last couple weekends its been cold up in the mountains

Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all.

I realize this is blasphemy but...

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2 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all.

I realize this is blasphemy but...

Thats why the trends have been terrible. 18Z wasnt even close on any of the potential hits. Its rain all the way to Canada! We have been enjoying the weekends of cold and snow. It appears feb might be a bust even up there. Maybe root for March? 

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2 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

We have been enjoying the weekends of cold and snow. It appears feb might be a bust even up there. Maybe root for March? 

I mean, I am on pace to burn 2 full cords of firewood and most days nobody is even there.  Biggest problem is keeping it dry.

Last 12" snowfall for Deep Creek?  last weekend of March 2022.  Warm winters end cold and no reason to think '23 is ending any differently.

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According to the gefs we are down to about a 4 day window the first week in February? That will get the job done. default_laugh.png

There was no scenario where we had a sustained window of cold and snow chances coming. February was always progged to be a rollercoaster month 2/1-2/9ish, then we warm up. Should be more chances mid to late month, with warmth sandwiched in between. The nature of the beast in a progressive regime with no blocking. We have no pacific ridge and a +NAO. A -EPO alone was never bringing us a 2+ week period of cold and snow.

The second half of Feb into early march may actually be our best chance at snow with señorita Niña finally fading to a more neutral state and the NAO forecasted to go negative (it’s been positive virtually the entire time since 12/15) If we get some blocking in place, perhaps we score a late season coup. Not holding my breath til I see it happen though.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

^ ENSO synopsis: Feb - April niña fades to neutral

8900427ee601725e0aafddee7cb6cc5b.jpg
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9 minutes ago, jayyy said:


I’m just curious what the point of having a banter thread is when 90+% of it happens on our mid to long range analysis thread.


.

Good point. And if there was something showing up in the short term I think it would be different. For the most part, there is an earnest effort to see our way through the winter. But seeing some positive trends, only to reverse, gets frustrating . Kudos to @CAPEfor holding the tiller steady  

 

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Color me surprised… not. 

I knew this would happen. 

Not trying to be a deb, and you all know I want snow as much as the next weenie. If we do get a good snow, I would go full Jebman on you guys. 

But tis not our year. 

Hard to believe we get absolutely shut out. I mean...even our lowest year at 0.7" managed 0.5" of those in January, lol

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