LP08 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Look very nice. Only 8-9 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This may be one of the better <240 hour runs weve had so far this digital winter coming up! Loving the position of the high at 200 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Something to prognosticate about inside of 10 days. Baby steps… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: This may be one of the better <240 hour runs weve had so far this digital winter coming up! Loving the position of the high at 200 hours Needs to start moving up the coast a bit if we want anything out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Needs to start moving up the coast a bit if we want anything out of it Still at range, we don’t want it on top of us past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Needs to start moving up the coast a bit if we want anything out of it yeah its squashed for quite a while but i think we still get blued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Still at range, we don’t want it on top of us past day 7. Was just pointing that out for people who wanted digital snow out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Still at range, we don’t want it on top of us past day 7. Seeing possibilities are good enough for now...still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Still at range, we don’t want it on top of us past day 7. Love seeing digital blue in the Tennessee Valley for next week That's where we need to keep that boundary for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: yeah its squashed Eh, prefer squashed at this range over “it’s cutting, congrats Chicago” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Was just pointing that out for people who wanted digital snow out of this run. I want to see Tennessee Kentucky and Southern VA crushed the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 GFS helpfully waits until the arctic air has nearly left before bringing up that slug of moisture. Meanwhile, NC and southern VA are turned into a ZR glacier. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Eh, prefer squashed at this range over “it’s cutting, congrats Chicago” its not really squashed and it still sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 but you couldn't have more different runs than 6z and 12z. Op run noise. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 High temps in Chicago next Monday and Tuesday: 18 and 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: its not really squashed and it still sucks... True. But if we aren’t hopeful at D7+, we should just go ahead and pack it in for the winter. Not ready to do that, so blind hope it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: but you couldn't have more different runs than 6z and 12z. Op run noise. Toss it. Its still 9 days out. My take away is there's cold air close by and plenty of moisture south of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: True. But if we aren’t hopeful at D7+, we should just go ahead and pack it in for the winter. Not ready to do that, so blind hope it is! at this point there looks to be cold and moisture kinda near each other...which is different than other set ups..so we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Its still 9 days out. My take away is there's cold air close by and plenty of moisture south of us. nice. we literally posted that at same time. you are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 but you couldn't have more different runs than 6z and 12z. Op run noise. Toss it.Agreed. Ensembles are way more important at this juncture anyway, which mostly show a workable setup. Glad that there will FINALLY be a snowpack in place in the mountains and points N/NW between now and next week, which we haven’t had most of the winter. Every bit helps. Let’s get some cold air nearby with a storm track to our south and the stars will align on one of these threats in due time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS helpfully waits until the arctic air has nearly left before bringing up that slug of moisture. Meanwhile, NC and southern VA are turned into a ZR glacier. It didn’t have to wait long. Here mid day Feb 1 the front hasn’t even cleared yet. That night early morning Feb 2 the cold has just arrived behind the wave And 48 hours later it’s been totally obliterated without there even being a cutter simply from very ordinary return southerly flow So what’s the window here? I keep seeing this sane general theme, if the cold gets routed that easily were left praying for a perfect timing thread the needle solution. Don’t get me wrong it could happen and it’s a better threat than we’ve had, but I hope ppl aren’t confusing that with a legit good high probability threat. This setup still seems more likely to fail than succeed imo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Man! We are really sucking on getting good patterns to pay off or be cold. WOW! GFS was a shit the blinds run. Every positive turned to negative. Call me captain obvious, but this is not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 ...they're OP runs. what's the issue here? there is going to be a lot of variance. as long as the signal remains on the ensembles, it's not a big deal 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ...they're OP runs. what's the issue here? there is going to be a lot of variance. as long as the signal remains on the ensembles, it's not a big deal We just have not come up good in the end.. no matter what the ops vs ensembles have shown. Just want to see some good runs stay good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 We’re losing the window on the ensembles, too. Just look at the trends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We just have not come up good in the end.. no matter what the ops vs ensembles have shown. Just want to see some good runs stay good! that is an unrealistic expectation at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 ...they're OP runs. what's the issue here? there is going to be a lot of variance. as long as the signal remains on the ensembles, it's not a big dealPSU’s concerns are valid though. It’s been the same song and dance all winter. Ensembles look good around D15 while OP runs are all over the place. Things begin to cave around D7-10, ensembles included. Having no blocking in place to counteract a SER that refuses to go more than 3-5 days without flexing its muscles is troublesome. It’s hard not to be skeptical when models (ensembles included) don’t show a mechanism to counteract what’s been our Achilles heel all winter; a progressive flow and a flexing SER. We all hope you’re right. As pessimistic as PSU has been, he’s clearly rooting for a good outcome. But he’s been right about all of these threats that continue to fall apart - almost all for the same reason. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: We’re losing the window on the ensembles, too. Just look at the trends. I posted the 24 hour trend showing the degrading look on the gefs earlier. Cognitive dissonance. They really want snow. I get it. If this was 20 years ago I would be guilty of it too. But now I’d rather face reality head on then do what’s necessary for my sanity. For example I called off work so my daughter could play in the snow I got Monday. I wouldn’t have done that for 1.7” that melted by afternoon if I felt we were likely to have way more opportunities. I’m planning a trip in 9 days and already looking at where will probably have snow that weekend. I’m not simply kidding myself into the belief the snow will come to me. If it does great. Bonus. But I’m acting on the assumption it won’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I posted the 24 hour trend showing the degrading look on the gefs earlier. Cognitive dissonance. They really want snow. I get it. If this was 20 years ago I would be guilty of it too. But now I’d rather face reality head on then do what’s necessary for my sanity. For example I called off work so my daughter could play in the snow I got Monday. I wouldn’t have done that for 1.7” that melted by afternoon if I felt we were likely to have way more opportunities. I’m planning a trip in 9 days and already looking at where will probably have snow that weekend. I’m not simply kidding myself into the belief the snow will come to me. If it does great. Bonus. But I’m acting on the assumption it won’t. For sure, I would have done the same. Early on in the season, I was like “I have low expectations because its a nina, but it can’t be that bad” Now? “Ok, it is THAT bad” After we head up to deep creek this weekend and at minimum, see some snow on the ground and take in the winter wonderland, I’m moving on. I’m out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Some snow mainly for places just to our SE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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