BristowWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Lol I’ve been trying so hard the last couple days not to poop in this thread but I’ve been getting a chuckle thinking how since Xmas it been “ by Jan 10” then Jan 15 and 20 and 25 then 28th then Feb 1 now Feb 6. The same look has been stuck at day 10-15 for a month now. We will run out of 10-15 day periods soon enough. Then we turn the hoses back on and wash the car. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol I’ve been trying so hard the last couple days not to poop in this thread but I’ve been getting a chuckle thinking how since Xmas it been “ by Jan 10” then Jan 15 and 20 and 25 then 28th then Feb 1 now Feb 6. The same look has been stuck at day 10-15 for a month now. The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: We will run out of 10-15 day periods soon enough. Then we turn the hoses back on and wash the car. It's funny. We never seem to kick the can when we enter shitty periods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's funny. We never seem to kick the can when we enter shitty periods 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: It's funny. We never seem to kick the can when we enter shitty periods That’s true. You never hear “well folks big model bust…looks like that June heat wave is on hold as we continue these pleasant 70s for the next week at least”. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's funny. We never seem to kick the can when we enter shitty periods Winter is just a shitty period now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop? Wait so THAT'S what the p in psu stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 You guys should know a +PNA Is coming for Feb 7-21. Saying it will likely be nuetral-to+NAO gives us these analogs for the time period: (since 1948) 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1980 1980, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2015, 2016, 2021 ^ analogs vs other analog match's suggest not such an easy +NAO.. maybe -NAO possibility for Feb7-21 (How did we do snow-wise? anyone that knows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: not a Barney fan? Here we go with the fucking avocado bs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Only question is can the SE ridge actually flatten out long enough...would love to see the flatter/weaker look of that NOT trend stronger as we get closer. If it don't then hey we in the game. Careful what u wish for. It's going to take some bowling avocados to 'squash' that SER, pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 First chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: First chance. Is this the +NAO Chuck was saying we would need to finally score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: First chance. Love a low in the GOA, or that spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Winter is just a shitty period now I was so excited to have a real Carroll County winter. Last year Annopoils got more snow. This year.. well. You know lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 12z EPS has a similar look with a wave and cold pressing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: First chance. It will go the other way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: First chance. Our first chance just like how December 10th was our chance or January 16th or 26th was our chance? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Our first chance just like how December 10th was our chance or January 16th or 26th was our chance? For this threat window. Go play video games if you don't want to properly participate in the discussion lol. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: For this threat window. Go play video games if you don't want to properly participate in the discussion lol. Just pointing out how we have done this song and dance before, if we get something inside 7 days I will be excited but currently it’s too far out to take seriously. Also I would go play video games but I got so much school stuff, it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop? This isn’t normal for a Nina. BWIs avg snow through Jan 31 in a Nina is 10.3”. Never been shutout. Manchesters avg is 18.4”. Least is 6.4”. Nina’s have less variance. They are rarely good but rarely really awful either. But I’ve been trying in this thread lately. Pointing out ways we “could” get something even if I don’t really buy it. But this gets old…look at Jan 28 4 days ago and now. now the cold comes Feb 2-3 ok. Let’s see what it says in 3 days…. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: It will go the other way this time. Keep that TPV (avocado) up in SE Canada and not plowing into the Midwest and we might actually do this. Balancing act....displace it South too far and run the risk of squashed cold and dry....not displaced enough and the SER flex wins out and we go warm/wet. There is a path to victory but it is narrow imo. Hopefully we can widen the goalposts moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Keep that TPV (avocado) up in SE Canada and not plowing into the Midwest and we might actually do this. Balancing act....displace it South too far and run the risk of squashed cold and dry....not displaced enough and the SER flex wins out and we go warm/wet. There is a path to victory but it is narrow imo. Hopefully we can widen the goalposts moving forward. Don’t worry. This miserable winter is just setting us up for an historical storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: Don’t worry. This miserable winter is just setting us up for an historical storm in March. This has been a long winter. Normally we have some tracking to distract us. Snow makes it fun and bright. Now it’s just dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I’m still learning here but seems the two pieces that have yet to line up this winter is a -NAO and +PNA at the same time. Plus the pacific jet has been relentless. Part of December, we had all indexes favorable except PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The upcoming period is different in that there are hits to the south and offshore unlike the previous windows of opportunity. Let’s see where we are by the weekend. No snow maps from me until the weekend…(yes, I promise!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Patiently waiting randy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just pointing out how we have done this song and dance before, if we get something inside 7 days I will be excited but currently it’s too far out to take seriously. Also I would go play video games but I got so much school stuff, it sucks. I get it. This 'song and dance' happens almost every winter though. At least the ensembles provide some degree of stability when tracking patterns in the LR. Lay off the op runs lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The upcoming period is different in that there are hits to the south and offshore unlike the previous windows of opportunity. Let’s see where we are by the weekend. No snow maps from me until the weekend…(yes, I promise!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 What a waste of another year of my life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The upcoming period is different in that there are hits to the south and offshore unlike the previous windows of opportunity. Let’s see where we are by the weekend. No snow maps from me until the weekend…(yes, I promise!) That is different for sure. At least we have an alternative failure mode on the table. The cutter thing got boring ages ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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