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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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From LWX:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the
hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More
specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to
the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance
which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the
cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At
this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these
streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter
weather threat.

 

You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

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  On 1/24/2023 at 5:12 PM, Terpeast said:

From LWX:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the
hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More
specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to
the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance
which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the
cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At
this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these
streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter
weather threat.

 

You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

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that was written for the MA forum to let us know find something else to do next 10 days or so...but just on official letterhead

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in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days

this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open 

 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.thumb.png.5a5c2880edecaeb51c28ffd3e071f7ae.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.thumb.png.dd912ef7b11a3e408090e830fe1e087e.png

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  On 1/24/2023 at 5:18 PM, mattie g said:

I look at them, but only for the laughs.

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There's value in seeing if any type of wave is in sight.  If there was no storm system, then it really doesn't matter what kind of look we have.  I agree with the general thesis lately that a simple W-E gradient/overrunning pattern is probably what we need at this point...especially since we're in prime climo.

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  On 1/24/2023 at 5:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_1day-5425600.thumb.png.2034e9a526130060093bde3c2b169c25.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z200_speed-5468800.thumb.png.50b853ea193d8a7c0109eeb385c69e2f.png

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Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means.

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