Terpeast Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: @WxUSAF...at 306 on the 12z GFS, the 1009L is about to bully that 1051H. You just wait and see. Pretty funny to see three different low centers. One off the coast, one in the Gulf, and one in KY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: @WxUSAF...at 306 on the 12z GFS, the 1009L is about to bully that 1051H. You just wait and see. lol I literally was coming to post this. It’s 1054mb at 312hrs! But that 1009mb low won’t be denied. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: lol I literally was coming to post this. It’s 1054mb at 312hrs! But that 1009mb low won’t be denied. practically a Cat 1 'cane!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 36 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Cmc shows the potential for late in January into the first week of February. When was the last time the CMC was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: 12z GFS for the next week system shifted about 500 miles to the WNW. The big ones cut early. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol I literally was coming to post this. It’s 1054mb at 312hrs! But that 1009mb low won’t be denied. Gotta love it! WEATHER53's "old-fashioned" way of forecasting is in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When was the last time the CMC was right? You could say the same of the gfs lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 From LWX: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter weather threat. You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: From LWX: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter weather threat. You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh? that was written for the MA forum to let us know find something else to do next 10 days or so...but just on official letterhead 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: You could say the same of the gfs lol None of them are right, right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run. I look at them, but only for the laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol I literally was coming to post this. It’s 1054mb at 312hrs! But that 1009mb low won’t be denied. We obviously just need a 1060 high! My book is full so fuck it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that was written for the MA forum to let us know find something else to do next 10 days or so...but just on official letterhead Written exclusively for Prince William County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 12z GFS was a dumpster fire. Luckily it'll change. Keep the faith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 12z GFS was a dumpster fire. Luckily it'll change. Keep the faith Yeah and like Terpeast said the GEFS haven't changed that much...obviously we gotta wait and see if it continues to hold for that period, but at least that's been a bit more steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 30 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run. Oh I know, but if we're tracking blues this far out, it's only fair. I checked the GEFS as well and noticed it was the same look...for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: I look at them, but only for the laughs. There's value in seeing if any type of wave is in sight. If there was no storm system, then it really doesn't matter what kind of look we have. I agree with the general thesis lately that a simple W-E gradient/overrunning pattern is probably what we need at this point...especially since we're in prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, mattie g said: Gotta love it! WEATHER53's "old-fashioned" way of forecasting is in the mud. HP is always on the move with progressive flow. That thing largely owes its existence to confluence from the strong TPV lobe rotating through, and there is nothing to slow its progress either. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 For illustration purposes only. Look at the split flow. Unfortunately, no interaction between the streams so we are left with surface lows associated with the southern and northern streams. ... and the cold air bottled up well to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 A New Hope my ass. This is what we get … 2 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A New Hope my ass. This is what we get … Sir we have detected a massive ridge coming out of hyperspace... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Our next window … 1 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A New Hope my ass. This is what we get … It's early. The Euro is gonna blow our minds. I can feel it. There's also the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's early. The Euro is gonna blow our minds. I can feel it. There's also the GEFS If it blows anything i'll be thrilled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: You could say the same of the gfs lol GFS has been right every time it showed no digital snow which is 95% of the time this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Is the euro broken. It’s forecast must be bleak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now