January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now the general consensus (at least as it is right now) is indeed for a niño next year, right? (This may be a question for the enso thread though, lol) I've been hearing that things are already warmer deep underneath.

The consensus last year at this time was for a Nino this year.  

[Cobalt]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You better hope next year isn't enso neutral...those are even worse.  This is BWI snow data by esno the last 30 years. 

Neutral			Nina			Nino
Avg	13.1		Avg	17.2		Avg	28.6
Median	11.7		Median	14.4		Median	18.3
% above mean	12.5%		% above mean	25%		% above mean	44.4%
1994	17.3		1996	62.5		1995	8.2
1997	15.3		1999	15.2		1998	3.2
2002	2.3		2000	26.1		2003	58.1
2004	18.3		2001	8.7		2005	18
2013	8		2006	19.6		2007	11
2014	39		2008	8.5		2010	77
2017	3		2009	9.1		2015	28.7
2020	1.8		2011	14.4		2016	35.1
			2012	1.8		2019	18.3
			2018	15.4
			2021	10.9
			2022	14.4

13-14 sticks out to me as the one major anomaly on that list.. why did that winter end up so uncharacteristic at h500 and at the surface? Was it purely a fluke or the fact that the base state was already in transition to a more Nino look as followed with 14-15?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Pray for a Nino.  Do a dance.  Light the candles.  Sacrifice whatever and whoever it takes.  Do it now.  

I offer up my rum to Jobu...

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa don't overthink this.  Keep it simple... our snowiest enso state is el nino.  Second is la nina.  Worst is neutral.  There is variance within all 3 and you see the stats I posted above.   Set your rooting interests and expectations accordingly.  

[brooklynwx99]

the GFS keeps amping the vort up for the second wave… let’s see how it turns out

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa don't overthink this.  Keep it simple... our snowiest enso state is el nino.  Second is la nina.  Worst is neutral.  There is variance within all 3 and you see the stats I posted above.   Set your rooting interests and expectations accordingly.  

Now that I define know (you must've missed my rooting for El niño all this time ). Now I believe the enso this time really is warming...will check other sources for current conditions.

[stormtracker]

First wave shows up on the GFS with some light snow on the doorstep from about DC south

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

First wave shows up on the GFS with some light snow on the doorstep from about DC south

Looks decent for a dusting or so

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS keeps amping the vort up for the second wave… let’s see how it turns out

Less amp'd than 6z at 111hrs now

 

ETA, but confluence shifted a tad norther over the East

[stormtracker]

Yup, confluence is shifted a bit further north with each panel, so maybe a more northern push to the precip?

[stormtracker]

Definitely further north than 6z so far out to our west.  Let's see what does in a sec

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Definitely further north than 6z so far out to our west.  Let's see what does in a sec

do we really want this trend this early?

[brooklynwx99]

i know that the off runs are supposed to be just as accurate as the 00/12z runs, but I can’t even tell you how many times I see crap like this

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's definitely norther...snow is trying to get going.  Snow starts at 144

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, confluence is shifted a bit further north with each panel, so maybe a more northern push to the precip?

That’s playing with fire though. With the upper ridge directly under us no matter how weak the wave is if the confluence lists we risk the whole boundary lifting too much. Also we risk the wave simply being weak sauce and not a significant snow for anyone.  Ideally we want more amped and more confidence. That’s the combo with upside. 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's definitely norther...snow is trying to get going.  Snow starts at 144

What i found intriguing, at least on the 06z run, was that the snow line actually went south as the storm went on

[stormtracker]

Meh..6z was better in terms of area coverage and intensity.  looks good for Central /South VA tho

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Meh..6z was better in terms of area coverage and intensity.  looks good for Central /South VA tho

Nice 3-6 for them

[AtlanticWx]

not minding this look 6 days out. would rather not have been in the bullseye

[mdhokie]

Still looks good in the mountains.

[Paleocene]

sick

 

[Interstate]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

sick

 

We always have issues with a west to east systems making it over the mountains.

[Interstate]

CMC says what storm

[AtlanticWx]

cmc got really close around day 6/7

[Ji]

so far--a disaster in todays runs. When is the SE ridge coming back?

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

CMC says what storm

Wouldn't call that a "What storm?" There just suppressed this run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Betting that most areas east of the mountains currently being shown as snow will end up as rain. From about Lynchburg south.

 

[IronTy]

43 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

First wave shows up on the GFS with some light snow on the doorstep from about DC south

Is it sad that I just sported wood thinking about a dusting?  The grass isn't short enough, I might need to spray glyphosate to kill it all so that the dusting fully coats my lawn.  

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Betting that most areas east of the mountains currently being shown as snow will end up as rain. From about Lynchburg south.

 

i dont think so...we all always get screwed by southern sliders in Nina

 

dont forget....too north for southern sliders, to west for Eastern coastal bombs...too east for clippers...to south for Miller B's

[psuhoffman]

Today's guidance took a step back towards a problem that to me is the biggest limiting factor in this setup and has been a repetitive issue recently.   Lack of interaction between moisture associated with the southern stream and the cold associated with the northern stream.  

I've been mentioning this for years...it was a HUGE problem in 2021 when we had blocking and storm after storm took a perfect track.  I think it gets less attention when we are in periods with a bad storm track because so much else is wrong that we don't pay attention...but this has been a theme for a while now and its a big problem.  Last night we saw some improvement with this but today the guidance seems back to not having any interaction between streams.  

That is what leads to this..

Wave 1 Where is the snow??? look at the pathetic "win" zone

Wave 2

Again where is the win there?  

Wave 3 

And its not just a here problem...the next wave isn't even close for us but it wouldn't matter what the track was because look...

There is really very little to no snowfall with most of the waves, and this has been a theme a lot of the time recently.  

The GFS shows a bit more snow but if you look closer its probably a faulty artifact of its faulty cold bias in the thermals and a liberal precip type algorithm.

  Because look at the surface temps on the GFS when that 2-4" of snow is supposed to be falling to our south.  It's 34-38 degrees and that is on a model with a cold bias.  The CMC precip type output is likely closer to reality if that is the actual track and interaction between streams.  

Not enough attention is being pain, IMO, to this.  It's a big part of our struggles in recent years.  We should not see wave after wave in January and February with virtually no snow on the northern side of the track at the mid latitudes.  When there is almost no snow until you get north of 40* with any wave...well...thats kinda a problem for us given our latitude!