January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[yoda]

DCA soundings show upper 20s for most of the snow... around 31 when it starts

[CAPE]

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

Seems like confluence up in the NE helps us with getting the precip to be snow... but also with pushing the heavier stuff a bit south of us. 

[yoda]

At least... for now... we have gotten snow within Day 7 on both the 00z EURO and the 06z GFS.  Both models suggest for now that the heavier snowfall amounts will be down in C and S VA.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seems like confluence up in the NE helps us with getting the precip to be snow... but also with pushing the heavier stuff a bit south of us. 

That's the nature of this setup with the TPV sliding eastward. The exact position and timing of that feature in conjunction with the disturbances moving east underneath is everything.

[dailylurker]

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

Of course. I can't win lol

[CAPE]

It is looking decidedly more winter-like for next week, with colder air pressing southeastward and placing the thermal boundary clearly in a more favorable position for the first time since probably late December. We have tracked this period for many days and it is now on the doorstep. My expectations were not for some super juiced up wave with a foot+ of snow, but rather a few chances at light to moderate events- we normally need a few shots in any favorable window to hit on one. Signal has been there on the means, and the op runs are now in a range where we can get a better idea on the specifics of how this will evolve. A warning level snow event looks possible next week somewhere in the MA. Hopefully we see a flush hit right across our region. 

[Lucketts Life]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is looking decidedly more winter-like for next week, with colder air pressing southeastward and placing the thermal boundary clearly in a more favorable position for the first time since probably late December. We have tracked this period for many days and it is now on the doorstep. My expectations were not for some super juiced up wave with a foot+ of snow, but rather a few chances at light to moderate events- we normally need a few shots in any favorable window to hit on one. Signal has been there on the means, and the op runs are now in a range where we can get a better idea on the specifics of how this will evolve. A warning level snow event looks possible next week somewhere in the MA. Hopefully we see a flush hit right across our region. 

Nice to be in the game again. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

That fits the current regime. Like that early January thing last year.

[North Balti Zen]

55 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Of course. I can't win lol

You and I need to move back. We’ve Killed it for the northern crew. Not in a good way.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

But holy cow eastern Canada is cold.  468 and I think there is a -52 in there.  

Looks like just a modest trend north would give us a warning level event.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

Just where we want it when PSU land is worried at getting fringed 6 days out.  

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Just where we want it when PSU land is worried at getting fringed 6 days out.  

Pretty much lol. Still a ways to go. The initial wave could be better for northern areas, and the second one more suppressed, leaving places in between in the jip zone. That scenario is depicted on some of the ens members.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS next week sets the bar very low….

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That fits the current regime. Like that early January thing last year.

Not sure it will play out that way. You have the WDI going up that way, along with better snow climo.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This is the range where all season that systems have begun to morph, so I would be surprised if we don't see some sort of changes or fly in the ointment type deal over the next 24 hours. This does seem like uncharted territory this year where we actually have a fairly clean setup and a workable path to victory, so who knows....maybe this one is/will lock-in with just subtle ticks n or s. 

With other prior systems in similar range we either ended up with the SER being more stout, a rogue sw up top mucking things up, or like before Christmas the TPV morphed into an avocado and overwhelmed the wave. Not suggesting a major change here. Just noting that IF we are going to see this thing morph into something different it is going to be over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Otoh, if the looks hold, you guys south of lat 40 are in a really good spot imho where up my way we probably end up fringed.

GL with today's runs.....and may the force be with you.

[BristowWx]

^that is just abysmal.  but you know what...when the GEFS shows awesomeness I don't believe it either.  just roll the bones and hope

[stormy]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is looking decidedly more winter-like for next week, with colder air pressing southeastward and placing the thermal boundary clearly in a more favorable position for the first time since probably late December. We have tracked this period for many days and it is now on the doorstep. My expectations were not for some super juiced up wave with a foot+ of snow, but rather a few chances at light to moderate events- we normally need a few shots in any favorable window to hit on one. Signal has been there on the means, and the op runs are now in a range where we can get a better idea on the specifics of how this will evolve. A warning level snow event looks possible next week somewhere in the MA. Hopefully we see a flush hit right across our region. 

That's 20/20............. After a cold/wet December and warm/dry January I believed the snow drought would end in February. The GFS/ECM and GEM all with run to run variance end the snow drought for much of Virginia before February 5. This has generally been repeating for a few days now, therefore more credence is attached.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is the range where all season that systems have begun to morph, so I would be surprised if we don't see some sort of changes or fly in the ointment type deal over the next 24 hours. This does seem like uncharted territory this year where we actually have a fairly clean setup and a workable path to victory, so who knows....maybe this one is/will lock-in with just subtle ticks n or s. 

With other prior systems in similar range we either ended up with the SER being more stout, a rogue sw up top mucking things up, or like before Christmas the TPV morphed into an avocado and overwhelmed the wave. Not suggesting a major change here. Just noting that IF we are going to see this thing morph into something different it is going to be over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Otoh, if the looks hold, you guys south of lat 40 are in a really good spot imho where up my way we probably end up fringed.

GL with today's runs.....and may the force be with you.

you  are in a similar boat as us...too far north south east west almost always...just better overall snow climo over the long haul averages...which doesnt mean much lately if NNE is the only place in the east that can still have epic winters...but you do have easy access to cheese steaks so there is that

[Interstate]

28 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You and I need to move back. We’ve Killed it for the northern crew. Not in a good way.

I was going to say. MOVE NOW!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding.  It is what it is. We will have our day.  Still a lot of time left. 

[GATECH]

Ugh not liking the overnight trends.  GEFS still looks good for nada though.  Still plenty of time for the models to adjust to us smoking cirrus. Not happy about it getting cold though next week, 60s delayed but not denied! Gonna be super pissed if it snows, still don’t have a snow shovel after I broke it.  

[Weather Will]

What the WB 6Z GEFS is selling right now for next work week is slightly below temps for the DMV with the best precip. south of the area.  Let’s see where things are on Monday.  Nothing is locked in yet, but there is not a strong signal for snow on GEFS at this time.

[jayyy]

you  are in a similar boat as us...too far north south east west almost always...just better overall snow climo over the long haul averages...which doesnt mean much lately if NNE is the only place in the east that can still have epic winters...but you do have easy access to cheese steaks so there is that

I know it’s been rough the last several years around these parts (not for everyone - northern crew had a solid 2020), but you’ll have a great winter again. Hopefully sooner than later


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[jayyy]

What the WB 6Z GEFS is selling right now for next work week is slightly below temps for the DMV with the best precip. south of the area.  Let’s see where things are on Monday.  Nothing is locked in yet, but there is not a strong signal for snow on GEFS at this time.

How many 7-10 day signals have panned out verbatim though? We’ve seen most storms end up going north of where they’ve been depicted at that range. Still in the game. Don’t need much of a change up top to get that heavy snow in VA up to these parts. We have a week to get that half inch+ precip blob to trend north. Not the worst place to be given seasonal trends.

[jayyy]

What the WB 6Z GEFS is selling right now for next work week is slightly below temps for the DMV with the best precip. south of the area.  Let’s see where things are on Monday.  Nothing is locked in yet, but there is not a strong signal for snow on GEFS at this time.

If we had a flush hit on the models at this range, we’d probably be saying there’s too much time for this to trend away and it’ll be snowing in PA and NY by the time we get to game time. Glad to see cold air around with snow to our south. That’s step one IMO.


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[jayyy]

Oops. Not sure why that post doubled up. Editing it out. (Where’s delete on this dang app)

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If we had a flush hit on the models at this range, we’d probably be saying there’s too much time for this to trend away and it’ll be snowing in PA and NY by the time we get to game time. Glad to see cold air around with snow to our south. That’s step one IMO.


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Only 1 Member of the GEFS has a heavy snow band through central VA next week, not a strong signal….

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What the WB 6Z GEFS is selling right now for next work week is slightly below temps for the DMV with the best precip. south of the area.  Let’s see where things are on Monday.  Nothing is locked in yet, but there is not a strong signal for snow on GEFS at this time.

A 5-day anomaly doesn't tell the story here though. The initial wave gets precip further north, but the cold air is just advancing southward through our area- comes in towards the tail end. For the second wave colder air is entrenched and the wave tracks further south. Both waves are relatively weak, and the lower res ensembles might not be accurately depicting the degree of lift into the cold air. With a tight thermal boundary even a weakish wave can generate some decent precip.

[North Balti Zen]

57 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Just where we want it when PSU land is worried at getting fringed 6 days out.  

Except, we have gotten fringed up this way for about 7 years now. 

[jayyy]

Only 1 Member of the GEFS has a heavy snow band through central VA next week, not a strong signal….

I totally get that and you’re just speaking to what you’re seeing - as you should. However, I’m not too worried just yet by what lower resolution ensembles are showing verbatim at range. They aren’t necessarily going to pick up on the specifics of a boundary wave at this range - IE: extent of how far north precip gets or the intensity of said precip.

Plenty of time for things to change. If we get to D5 and OPs show no signal, I’ll move on.


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