CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, WesternFringe said: Dayum! Look at that abv. CAPE isn’t f-ing around! Love me some high gravity ales! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No mechanism to bring that N whatsoever. The vort was way less robust in the SW early, compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: re: 18z GFS: this model will trend much, much warmer in future runs for Medium Range Storm. -PNA, nasty +NAO. could be 60s is my guess. Hey Chuck. Let me holla at you real quick.... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Meh I know, right?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's plenty big snows....a mecs per NC standards sir Yes upon a second look I edited my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hey Chuck. Let me holla at you real quick.... I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds like a reach.. Around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 How’s sad hour going? I can’t even bother to read above. I just know and can guess. At least Lost Generation Brewing is helping out the “no snow for you” vibes for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Around I was kinda leaving out that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The gfs may nail the 15 days. If it does, it will still be behind by four touchdowns. It has been bad past 5 days all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not hating it at all given the GFS bias of crushing cold southward. Not likely happening, esp not this winter. I tend to agree and the chart time starts with a 1 instead of a 2 or 3! P.S. if I’m betting cutter vs suppressed, I’ll go with the seasonal trend for now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Love me some high gravity ales! After all the suppression depression from the GFS, can we go back to talking about happy hour drinks now? Lol In actuality, we all know ensembles are more important this far out, so the fact the ops are showing chances and nearby snow is the take away. Still love @jayyy’s post from a little while back so I saved it: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. Observing the daily disco of model madness reminds how fragile our intelligence is. 50 - 60 years ago, back in the 60's we at least had the sanity of synoptic weather maps!! A fan sent me an e-mail this afternoon asking my thoughts on a 10 day ECM shout on a MECS. Of course I gently explained that it would be gone the next run. Are there still people that still take this daily Nonsense verbatim?? We are trying to figure out the nuances of mother nature and foolishly connect AGW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too I’m amazed that’s even called a wave. Lol. More like a ripple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. 22 minutes ago, stormy said: Observing the daily disco of model madness reminds how fragile our intelligence is. 50 - 60 years ago, back in the 60's we at least had the sanity of synoptic weather maps!! A fan sent me an e-mail this afternoon asking my thoughts on a 10 day ECM shout on a MECS. Of course I gently explained that it would be gone the next run. Are there still people that still take this daily Nonsense verbatim?? We are trying to figure out the nuances of mother nature and foolishly connect AGW. I’m so glad you two found each other… 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week. Not a horrible spread. Could be better of course, but nice to see some snow to our south on some of these members for a change! I’d rather see some suppression than a flush hit or the rain/snow line over us at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I don't mind this look 7 days out at all. Especially with this seasons tendencies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Scraff said: How’s sad hour going? I can’t even bother to read above. I just know and can guess. At least Lost Generation Brewing is helping out the “no snow for you” vibes for me. @Scraff @nw baltimore wx when we getting together again for beers? It will bring snow to the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too That’s exactly what we want to see, a stronger and slower wave gives more time for the confluence to depart allowing the storm to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 That’s exactly what we want to see, a stronger and slower wave gives more time for the confluence to depart allowing the storm to come north. Not us down here in Richmond . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 We’ve come to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We’ve come to this 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, stormy said: The insanity of today always finds proclamations from those who promote themselves to have a high level of intelligence but who really thrive on self aggrandizement disguised in phantom knowledge . People who create riddles with only one answer. Well you seem to be an expert on insanity. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 His board? I love weather. Love obvious right's/wrong's and pointing them out as these are $$traded commodities. Feel like it's an awesome chance and time of peace.. 384hr gfs ensemble now has a -NAO trying to develop, and I nailed that +PNA Feb5th-> call, as of right now, verifying better and better, vs models at 18z. 384hr of the gfs ensemble looks good. I fear this +NAO pacing our coming +PNA. hopefully the modeled -NAO/+PNA happens in the 2nd week of February. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I thought this thread would make it to 50 pages without going off the rails with insanity psychobabble. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I thought this thread would make it to 50 pages without going off the rails with insanity psychobabble. Nope 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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