Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Only we can accomplish lows of single digits followed by 50s and rain just hours later. We have one he'll of an anti snow dome in these parts. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I would think that we want the low to be open on the CMC? Not sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Suppression is the last of my worries this season. Congrats Atlanta is fine with me a week out lol. Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Looks like some kind of Miller B Setup starting to unfold......details aren't important at this stage, run to run consistency and of course ensembles are more important I wouldn't call this a Miller B. This wave is coming straight from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 this is nice from the GEFS. better ridging showing up out west and lower heights initially. it'll be easier to snow from that first wave if the SE ridge is pressed a bit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I wouldn't call this a Miller B. This wave is coming straight from the south. not on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Looks like some kind of Miller B Setup starting to unfold......details aren't important at this stage, run to run consistency and of course ensembles are more important Miller B? Not seeing that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: not on the Canadian Even on there--that's just a regular cutter that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season If the other two global were on board with this suppressed look I would be happy but that cmc is just too much like what we have been seeing all this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not a bad place to be a week out on an op run considering the winter tendencies. Just to play devils advocate here....but this is very different in that we have a displaced TPV and cold air pressing as the SJ wave rolls along so can we really say this is coming North 100%? I see what you are saying, believe me I do....but this setup is uncharted territory for this year and if the ens individuals weren't showing a decent clustering sliding under us I would be more inclined to side with y'all here. As you were.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Even on there--that's just a regular cutter that run Eh the primary (which cuts) dies in ohio then redevelops off southern NE but why am i dissecting a 240 op run of the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Even on there--that's just a regular cutter that run True.....The previous Euro transferred the Low from Tennessee to the coast.....just saying thats on the table from everything the Big 3 are showing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Everything has trended north this year. Not upset with the current presentation on the 12z GFS. Ya I rather have it south of us than north any day at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 GEFS is on the right track for the first wave. both colder and wetter 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season See my other post. Gotta stop with the "no way this can be suppressed" talk. All options on the table still but nothing set in stone. Could cut or could slide...we just can't know (sorry to borrow your line @CAPE) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I rather have it south of us than north any day at this range. I'd rather have it under 120 hours so we have a clearer picture of the camps presented, but that's just me. The whole "it's right where we want it" thing is a weenie fallacy tbh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Ravens94 said: Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 GEFS has certainly been moving in a more favorable direction for the window around the 3rd with a much better located PNA ridge showing up in the last 24 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: See my other post. Gotta stop with the "no way this can be suppressed" talk. All options on the table still but nothing set in stone. Could cut or could slide...we just can't know (sorry to borrow your line @CAPE) Yeah you right...it's very early. So I'll just say suppression would be befuddling--because that SE ridge would have to be flattened even further down to an extent we haven't seen this year, right? But again, anything is possible at this range and it's not a good idea to take anything off the table. Got suspicions, but no certainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: not on the Canadian I think you're either misinterpreting what you're seeing on the run or you're getting mixed up regarding the term "Miller B." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 looks... moist. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Well we can see whos personality is half filled and whos is half empty on this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 So...I've seen the overnight and morning guidance, I've looked at the points being made on both sides...and I've seen the data and indicators that I think are actually important here... who want's my honest assessment of the current threat window and who would rather just not know. I'll put it to a vote.... Hearts=YES Weenies=No ETA: voting closes at 1pm 23 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 It will come north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just to play devils advocate here....but this is very different in that we have a displaced TPV and cold air pressing as the SJ wave rolls along so can we really say this is coming North 100%? I see what you are saying, believe me I do....but this setup is uncharted territory for this year and if the ens individuals weren't showing a decent clustering sliding under us I would be more inclined to side with y'all here. As you were.... I would bet yes emphatically this entire set up is further north in a few days. I know you know this but models seem to overdue the cold push from distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Oh yeah, that is a SoMD special...basically from DC south. I don't think it'll pan out that way, but who knows I'm gonna go out and cut the lawn extra short on Saturday, just in case... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So...I've seen the overnight and morning guidance, I've looked at the points being made on both sides...and I've seen the data and indicators that I think are actually important here... who want's my honest assessment of the current threat window and who would rather just not know. I'll put it to a vote.... Hearts=YES Weenies=No No frosted poop emoji anymore! But seriously, I can take a wild guess that you're not overly enthused about the upcoming window (such as it is), and I honestly couldn't blame you if that's truly how you feel. It has been frustrating, and we can only hope that one of these will actually work! (I suspect you're getting ready to throw the book at us!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 squished, plowed, moist, push I'm thinking cupcakes and white frosting But we just won't know how this will go unless there is consistency the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'd rather have it under 120 hours so we have a clearer picture of the camps presented, but that's just me. The whole "it's right where we want it" thing is a weenie fallacy tbh. I don't think the north trend is weenie fallacy lol. We've seen southern VA/NC hits a week out turn into hits for our area many of times over the years. Ussually there's incremental shifts north the last 48 hours. I can't remember 1 time when it looked like a Pittsburgh hit 4 days out that ended up trending into a hit for us. I remember plenty of central VA hits 4 days out that turned into PSU land bullseye at game time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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