BristowWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:33 PM, dallen7908 said: EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow Expand Thanks a pant load GATECH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:33 PM, dallen7908 said: EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow Expand Better looking on the 6z eps compared to 0z. Further south low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:33 PM, dallen7908 said: EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow Expand Already been discussed. Chances for frozen on the means increases Feb 2-3 timeframe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:33 PM, dallen7908 said: EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snowNobody on the board is... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 12:47 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm. Expand This is why your posts aren’t viewed as favorably as you’d like. They read as extreme joy for what nobody wants. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 One of the factors that may explain the difference between GEFS and EPS is the MJO forecast. We need to stay out of warm phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:54 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: This is why your posts aren’t viewed as favorably as you’d like. They read as extreme joy for what nobody wants. Expand but is he wrong? lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 2:10 PM, mappy said: but is he wrong? lol Expand He is mostly right. The depicted look in the LR on the 6z GEFS isn't very good. I suppose in the interest of keeping hopes and dreams alive, positive vibes, etc (theme of the thread) there are other ways to say it. I did it in a post earlier by saying to root for the advertised look on the EPS and GEPS in the LR, rather than saying the GEFS looks like shit lol. That said, Chuck's post doesn't bother me at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 10:33 AM, CAPE said: 6z GFS has more confluence to our north with the timing of the NS shortwave, as a bit of energy ejects eastward out of the southwest. Brings a band of snow across the area.Ok, now THIS is in range to pay attention to being around day 5 (1/31) with a second wave on its heels (2/2) The euro was obviously weenie porn for feb 5th, and an appetizer system (or two) to lay down snowpack around 1/31 would be ideal leading into that 2/2-2/5 window. Some models had a 1/31 threat some days back and lost it, but it appears the signal is returning. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 2:34 PM, CAPE said: He is mostly right. The depicted look in the LR on the 6z GEFS isn't very good. I suppose in the interest of keeping hopes and dreams alive, positive vibes, etc (theme of the thread) there are other ways to say it. I did it in a post earlier by saying to root for the advertised look on the EPS and GEPS in the LR, rather than saying the GEFS looks like shit lol. That said, Chuck's post doesn't bother me at all. Expand I interpreted his post as he whining about it just like everyone else. but that's just me. this thread is very much emotional in many ways. everyone is on edge and snipping at each other. its really a chore to have to read it. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 12:47 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm. I only care about the op under 9 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 1:21 PM, GATECH said: I can’t believe the gfs shows snow. What a disaster! #springdenied! On to 12Z. Come on SER, flex to Cleveland! Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 2:48 PM, mappy said: this thread is very much emotional in many ways. everyone is on edge and snipping at each other. its really a chore to have to read it. Expand You must be new here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 2:48 PM, mappy said: I interpreted his post as he whining about it just like everyone else. but that's just me. this thread is very much emotional in many ways. everyone is on edge and snipping at each other. its really a chore to have to read it. Expand That's why I refuse to attempt to interpret his posts. No offense to him, but unless I can comprehend the meaning of the words on the screen within a few seconds, I just shuffle on by. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I'd sign on the dotted line for the 6z GFS and then call it a winter. Nice overrunning 3-6 with no temp issues, followed by a few cold days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:13 PM, mattie g said: That's why I refuse to attempt to interpret his posts. No offense to him, but unless I can comprehend the meaning of the words on the screen within a few seconds, I just shuffle on by. Expand a good suggestion that a lot of us should follow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 You guys are lucky. I got called for a meeting, so no wretched GFS analysis. But don't you worry...if this really is a threat, I'll be back with vague 0 line descriptions and false alarm jaws posts. You're welcome. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:39 PM, stormtracker said: You guys are lucky. I got called for a meeting, so no wretched GFS analysis. But don't you worry...if this really is a threat, I'll be back with vague 0 line descriptions and false alarm jaws posts. You're welcome. Expand this is the most important GFS run since dec 28, 2000 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:48 PM, Ji said: this is the most important GFS run since dec 28, 2000 Expand The mention of this is banworthy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:39 PM, stormtracker said: You guys are lucky. I got called for a meeting, so no wretched GFS analysis. But don't you worry...if this really is a threat, I'll be back with vague 0 line descriptions and false alarm jaws posts. You're welcome. Expand Meeting delayed! Here we go! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:50 PM, stormtracker said: Meeting delayed! Here we go! Expand On this board, delayed = denied. So I guess that's good news for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 3:54 PM, mattie g said: On this board, delayed = denied. So I guess that's good news for you! Expand I doubt it this time. It's a performance review. But it's been cancelled like 6x, so there's a chance? Anyway, no appreciable differences in the GFS through 108 vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Patch of light snow at 123, 0 850 south of us, freezing line just north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Some light snow at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 126: Colder upstairs vs 6z, light snow still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 132: light snow, freezing line just south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like a general 1 to 3 on snow maps from DC south, lighter as you go north. Weird 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 ok, next up. Confluence and TPV further south @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Good trend on temps vs 00z and 06z for Tuesday. 06z had dewpoints at 35 during the event. 12z has them in the upper 20s. Edit - snow depth map is a 0.5"-1" event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Drier than 6z down south tho...sense some squishing of the precip since the confluence is further south. Squishing is a bona fide weather term. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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