Ji Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 It was a super turbulent flight once near Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Hey look! A positive tick inside 200 hrs (and not on an off-hour run either) Not yet a trend, but...we ain't had even this much at this range yet, lol Let's see if it carries over the next couple Zs... @Ralph Wiggum Why sad emoji? SER looks a bit better here, no? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Meanwhile Euro got a little slider at hr 156... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Epic euro run for this winter, The Heisy lives!. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 0z euro is dirty. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 It’s still snowing here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just a beautiful setup on the 00z Euro with a slow moving juicy low running into a stout 1040mb+ high up top and then redeveloping off the coast. Surely shows the potential of the pattern coming up. Can the Euro finally be picking up on the start of something here or is it another mirage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s still snowing here . Bro, 10 days out. This is the Roger Smith storm he mentioned in early January, but let's get this under 120 hrs. I know....nothing else to talk about....I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yep...pretty much a run. Still Day 10 though--very general idea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey look! A positive tick inside 200 hrs (and not on an off-hour run either) Not yet a trend, but...we ain't had even this much at this range yet, lol Let's see if it carries over the next couple Zs... @Ralph Wiggum Why sad emoji? SER looks a bit better here, no? Atl looks slightly improved, pac looks slightly stepped back. They cancel each other out imo. Was supposed to be the confused emoji. Seems when one side trends good the other trends opposite. Couldn't tell you last time we had both side work in harmony. Tho with the early Feb thing the Atl side is probably.more important. If we can score then I don't care if the pac fails and we move into a spring break pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Atl looks slightly improved, pac looks slightly stepped back. They cancel each other out imo. Was supposed to be the confused emoji. Seems when one side trends good the other trends opposite. Couldn't tell you last time we had both side work in harmony. Tho with the early Feb thing the Atl side is probably.more important. If we can score then I don't care if the pac fails and we move into a spring break pattern. Yeah I get ya. But yeah the pac doesn't appear that it wants to go hostile either as of now. But, still a way to go, and yes--I think at this juncture the Atl probably is more important since it's only been our biggest snow nemesis, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum Lo and behold the EPS goes and pops a...PNA ridge (did I identify that right?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Nice signal for a wave moving along the boundary on all 3 global ens means, with cold coming in with/behind the predecessor wave. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: @Ralph Wiggum Lo and behold the EPS goes and pops a...PNA ridge (did I identify that right?) Yes and the GEPS does to a lesser degree too. Pretty nice look here on the EPS for the Feb 2 potential. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6z GFS has more confluence to our north with the timing of the NS shortwave, as a bit of energy ejects eastward out of the southwest. Brings a band of snow across the area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We are in the range now where the operational models are beginning to flash the potential for the period beginning early February that has been depicted on the ensembles for several days. Currently the means suggest the chances for frozen increase around Feb 2nd. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: We are in the range now where the operational models are beginning to flash the potential for the period beginning early February that has been depicted on the ensembles for several days. Currently the means suggest the chances for frozen increase around Feb 2nd. GFS improved pretty dramatically at 06z, especially out west. a bit far too far S, but this is a major overrunning event for the MA verbatim hopefully it's not a blip. seems to be more in line with other guidance. this is our first legit shot IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Should be crowded at happy hour tonight, break out the top shelf stuff 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS has more confluence to our north with the timing of the NS shortwave, as a bit of energy ejects eastward out of the southwest. Brings a band of snow across the area. It then has a follow up wave within the next couple days. Both within 200 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It then has a follow up wave within the next couple days. Both within 200 hours. That's the one we r keying in on but for some reason folks last night were out to day 10+ as the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We ain’t dead yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I hope the overnight runs are keying onto the upcoming potential but there is no trend yet. Just a lot of run to run volatility to keep hope alive. The 0Z EURO run with snow on snow was the best model run of the season but it is just one run with modest EPS support at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 50 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It then has a follow up wave within the next couple days. Both within 200 hours. The second wave is in alignment with what the ens means have been advertising as the initial chance for something other than rain for days now. This place would be a lot less bipolar if folks paid less attention/didn't react to every model cycle of the operational runs at long leads. eta- the ensembles will have some run-to- run variability, but it won't be the wild swings that we see with the higher res operational models. The basic idea is to use them as a tool to reduce the uncertainty in the long range for a given outcome at a specific time. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Thread title checks out. until 12z 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Hey @WinterWxLuvr, some threat possibilities that don't start with a "3" on the forecast hour, finally! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Things started to turn as soon as @GATECH capitulated and gave in to the SER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Root for the EPS and CMC ens in the LR heading towards mid month. Respectable h5 look with ridging along the west coast( neutral/slightly +PNA) and up over AK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: We are in the range now where the operational models are beginning to flash the potential for the period beginning early February that has been depicted on the ensembles for several days. Currently the means suggest the chances for frozen increase around Feb 2nd. I know that @das will eye roll, grind his teeth, and punch a wall when he sees my post, but I’m going to wait until a 12z or 0z model affirms any of this before I get my heart broken again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, IronTy said: Things started to turn as soon as @GATECH capitulated and gave in to the SER. I can’t believe the gfs shows snow. What a disaster! #springdenied! On to 12Z. Come on SER, flex to Cleveland! 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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