Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Now listen...even in all my neurosis about snow, one thing even I don't do too much is take a LR op run as pure gospel. C'mon y'all, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Everyone laughed at Doug K but hes looking pretty smart right about now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, mdhokie said: At least the last couple weekends its been cold up in the mountains Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all. I realize this is blasphemy but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all. I realize this is blasphemy but... Thats why the trends have been terrible. 18Z wasnt even close on any of the potential hits. Its rain all the way to Canada! We have been enjoying the weekends of cold and snow. It appears feb might be a bust even up there. Maybe root for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Do we have an actual shit on the blinds meme? I must look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Do we have an actual shit on the blinds meme? I must look I already did, there isn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 WB Can seasonal….only 10 months to go…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, mdhokie said: We have been enjoying the weekends of cold and snow. It appears feb might be a bust even up there. Maybe root for March? I mean, I am on pace to burn 2 full cords of firewood and most days nobody is even there. Biggest problem is keeping it dry. Last 12" snowfall for Deep Creek? last weekend of March 2022. Warm winters end cold and no reason to think '23 is ending any differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Unhappy hour model bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I already did, there isn’t. Damn it I have to shit on my own blinds. Wife not gonna be happy but these are desperate times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Damn it I have to shit on my own blinds. Wife not gonna be happy but these are desperate times 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Do we have an actual shit on the blinds meme? I must look 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Nice but it’s needs a giant steamer strategically placed on it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 You guys are weard.. GFS will show snow or ice at 00z. 2 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now listen...even in all my neurosis about snow, one thing even I don't do too much is take a LR op run as pure gospel. C'mon y'all, lol Its not just the op … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 GFS will show another SECS/MECS in the next 2-3 runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Its not just the op … Now I did see that...wasn't sure how to interpret what was going on with the pacific and whether that was a bit of a +PNA or something else unrelated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 This thread is an absolute fucking shitshow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, jayyy said: This thread is an absolute fucking shitshow. . Ya hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: This thread is an absolute fucking shitshow. . Only 30 more pages left to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said: Unhappy hour model bad What's the link for this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Only 30 more pages left to go. I’m just curious what the point of having a banter thread is when 90+% of it happens on our mid to long range analysis thread. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: 18Z GFS and GEFS… According to the gefs we are down to about a 4 day window the first week in February? That will get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Thread title fixed January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope No Hope 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 According to the gefs we are down to about a 4 day window the first week in February? That will get the job done. There was no scenario where we had a sustained window of cold and snow chances coming. February was always progged to be a rollercoaster month 2/1-2/9ish, then we warm up. Should be more chances mid to late month, with warmth sandwiched in between. The nature of the beast in a progressive regime with no blocking. We have no pacific ridge and a +NAO. A -EPO alone was never bringing us a 2+ week period of cold and snow. The second half of Feb into early march may actually be our best chance at snow with señorita Niña finally fading to a more neutral state and the NAO forecasted to go negative (it’s been positive virtually the entire time since 12/15) If we get some blocking in place, perhaps we score a late season coup. Not holding my breath til I see it happen though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml ^ ENSO synopsis: Feb - April niña fades to neutral 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: I’m just curious what the point of having a banter thread is when 90+% of it happens on our mid to long range analysis thread. . Good point. And if there was something showing up in the short term I think it would be different. For the most part, there is an earnest effort to see our way through the winter. But seeing some positive trends, only to reverse, gets frustrating . Kudos to @CAPEfor holding the tiller steady 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Color me surprised… not. I knew this would happen. Not trying to be a deb, and you all know I want snow as much as the next weenie. If we do get a good snow, I would go full Jebman on you guys. But tis not our year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB Can seasonal….only 10 months to go…. Start a thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Color me surprised… not. I knew this would happen. Not trying to be a deb, and you all know I want snow as much as the next weenie. If we do get a good snow, I would go full Jebman on you guys. But tis not our year. Hard to believe we get absolutely shut out. I mean...even our lowest year at 0.7" managed 0.5" of those in January, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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