Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:15 PM, BristowWx said: Happy hour coming up…prediction? Expand I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:19 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh Expand I was hoping you’d say PAIN. Clubber Lang style 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:24 PM, BristowWx said: I was hoping you’d say PAIN. Clubber Lang style Expand Make. It. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I think the overarching conclusion is that the predictive value of long-term forecasting based on analogs appears to be growing less accurate with time. We may have to come up with new indices or analogs that fit the new paradigm we're in. That super-nino pattern in California shouldn't have happened. Things aren't making sense anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:25 PM, fujiwara79 said: I think the overarching conclusion is that the predictive value of long-term forecasting based on analogs appears to be growing less accurate with time. We may have to come up with new indices or analogs that fit the new paradigm we're in. That super-nino pattern in California shouldn't have happened. Things aren't making sense anymore. Expand Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). (You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:28 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:28 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). (You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).) Expand TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result. Hence the super-nino pattern in California. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:49 PM, MountainGeek said: TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result. Hence the super-nino pattern in California. Expand Thank you for spelling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:49 PM, MountainGeek said: TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result. Hence the super-nino pattern in California. Expand I found no STJ correlation but there was a strong PNA correlation at 0-time.. fwiw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18z GFS says maybe a quick dusting for DC metro region next Tuesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 9:19 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh Expand I will take a stab at it. Feb 2nd to 4th period I will say 18z shows rain to snow 2-4" a lull then a follow up wave dumps 8-16" with temps falling into the 20's along with winds 30-40 mph with windchills single digits to below zero. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 7:37 PM, Heisy said: The 12z Euro control leaves energy behind just like GFS. This is the progression we want models to show if we want a good snowstorm. We pray Wish we could get Op to show this . Expand Can we please ban single ensemble maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Gonna check myself in to Snowblower Anonymous tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18z unhappy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 No happy hour today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Yeeeeah it's drunk alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 That's actually a lot of moisture running into cold air.. my guess would be ice in future runs. +PNA signal starts Feb 5th.. will probably coincide with +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:17 PM, yoda said: 18z GFS says maybe a quick dusting for DC metro region next Tuesday evening Expand No matter what the SER wins.. it’s just what it is…nothing can be done. Wait until next year. But we can keep tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out! Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace. It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money. Happy hour GFS run is awesome today! Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing! After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND! 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:48 PM, GATECH said: It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out! Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace. It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money. Happy hour GFS run is awesome today! Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing! After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND! Expand I’ll take it one step further. Let’s get some 60s and 70s in the long range and start Spring. I have had enough of 39 and rain today for the rest of this winter. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:48 PM, GATECH said: It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out! Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace. It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money. Happy hour GFS run is awesome today! Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing! After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND! Expand If you were looking for a run that is just wonderfully awful that one takes the prize. I see your logic however. Not sure about once in a lifetime however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:48 PM, GATECH said: It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out! Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace. It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money. Happy hour GFS run is awesome today! Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing! After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND! Expand Only 1 more month until it's March Madness tracking season. Later sunsets along with Bermuda High's and afternoon storms sounds pretty great, too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:56 PM, BristowWx said: If you were looking for a run that is just wonderfully awful that one takes the prize. I see your logic however. Not sure about once in a lifetime however. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:55 PM, SnowGolfBro said: I’ll take it one step further. Let’s get some 60s and 70s in the long range and start Spring. I have had enough of 39 and rain today for the rest of this winter. Expand Amen, has it ever been 80 in February. If not I would like to give that shot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I have never been a warmanista…but f it, people change! Let’s burn this mother fucking winter down! Bring on that Bermuda High! I want dandelions in my yard and I want them now! I am opening my pool March 1! Why? because it’s gonna be hot! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 that was a shit the blinds happy hour. At least the last couple weekends its been cold up in the mountains, now it appears we're gonna get driving rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 You guys are funny. You know how it’s gonna go. Cold and blustery and damp in March. Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April. “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?” May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather. It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 10:48 PM, GATECH said: It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out! Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace. It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money. Happy hour GFS run is awesome today! Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing! After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND! Expand The only L depicted at 192 is in North Dakota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/25/2023 at 11:16 PM, mdhokie said: that was a shit the blinds happy hour. At least the last couple weekends its been cold up in the mountains, now it appears we're gonna get driving rainstorms. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18Z GFS and GEFS… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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