January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We’re losing the window on the ensembles, too. Just look at the trends. 

Not really seeing it outside of run to run noise. The window is still roughly the first 8-10 days of Feb.

Better h5 look than 12z yesterday imo.

[CAPE]

Interesting look.

[midatlanticweather]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that is an unrealistic expectation at this range

Seems to have been the story this year though! Hopes in both ensembles and the ops pretty quickly slip and then the next threat becomes the focus.. rinse, repeat. Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find a nut, I just hope we get a good one before the year is done! 

I appreciate the response and get it, but it seems when things start getting worse as a trend, the trend only gets worse in subsequent runs. It is not a good year down this way!

[CAPE]

Remember I claimed all storms in the Feb 1-8 window.

Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

You going to tell them to go play video games too? 

[AtlanticWx]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Remember I claimed all storms in the Feb 1-8 window.

Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

love cancelling a threat 7 days out!

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

You going to tell them to go play video games too? 

Nah that was just for you. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

This doesn’t scream torch to me 

[CAPE]

Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

This doesn’t scream torch to me 

Bad trends!!

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nah that was just for you. 

well don’t you worry, now that I’m on my long weekend I plan to play many video games. 

[mattie g]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I posted the 24 hour trend showing the degrading look on the gefs earlier.
 

 Cognitive dissonance. They really want snow. I get it. If this was 20 years ago I would be guilty of it too.  But now I’d rather face reality head on then do what’s necessary for my sanity. 
 

For example I called off work so my daughter could play in the snow I got Monday. I wouldn’t have done that for 1.7” that melted by afternoon if I felt we were likely to have way more opportunities. I’m planning a trip in 9 days and already looking at where will probably have snow that weekend. I’m not simply kidding myself into the belief the snow will come to me.  If it does great. Bonus. But I’m acting on the assumption it won’t. 

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

[RedSky]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Remember I claimed all storms in the Feb 1-8 window.

Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

Roger Smith reserved the Feb 2-3 one let me tell ya before Ralph

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bad trends!!

So now we got dueling analyses from two top posters! Prof. CAPE vs. Prof PSU. Round 1z: Predict!

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

also, most setups fail in one way or another in the Mid-Atlantic up to NYC. that's why we average 15-30" a winter and not 40-60" like New England. most setups fail and just bring rain. snow is a relative rarity, especially in crappy years

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So now we got dueling analyses from two top posters! Prof. CAPE vs. Prof PSU. Round 1z: Predict!

lol no. I know full well the reality but prefer to track the chances when they present themselves. I know what the odds are and the ways it can't work. No fun beating that dead horse.

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, most setups fail in one way or another in the Mid-Atlantic up to NYC. that's why we average 15-30" a winter and not 40-60" like New England. most setups fail and just bring rain. snow is a relative rarity, especially in crappy years

Yup. Constant negativity is a real downer during a time of year when people are sick, the days are short, there's a relative lack of available outdoor activities, etc. I'm honestly not even a particularly positive person (lol), but when it comes to weather discussion, I need to be able to see or hear about the potential silver lining rather than just being told that the cloud is taking up the whole horizon and bearing down on me.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

so you want me to lie to you and make up BS analysis,  ok 

It's a really good setup, despite a lack of blocking and a SE ridge its going to work, we're going to get wave after wave to take a perfect track and save our season.  There.  Have a good day.  

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Roger Smith reserved the Feb 2-3 one let me tell ya before Ralph

He already informed me lol. Lets just get some snow up in here.

[Wonderdog]

17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

Well put. The naysayers need to remember the last three words of this thread.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

lol no. I know full well the reality but prefer to track the chances when they present themselves. I know what the odds are and the ways it can't work. No fun beating that dead horse.

it's not beating a dead horse its simply analyzing the reality honestly everyday.  When things look good I say that too.  Back in December I was optimistic.  Go back and read my posts for a couple weeks in early to mid december.  Because that look actually was good.  We actually had a pattern close to ones that worked historically in a -PDO so I was optimistic and no one complained oddly enough even though I WAS DEAD WRONG and it didn't snow.

Now in January I keep saying, this just isn't likely to work, these looks are not correlated to snow here in a -PDO, its gonna end up more hostile than it looks day 15 and I have been right over and over and everyone hates me for it lol.   I get it people just want snow.  But each day when I look at the guidance, analyze it, and decide it still isn't what I want to see to feel confident its gonna snow...I'm going to be honest about what I see and think.  I like the analysis, and hopefully the pattern will look better so I can say something truly positive when I break down what I am seeing after a run of guidance.   

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol no. I know full well the reality but prefer to track the chances when they present themselves. I know what the odds are and the ways it can't work. No fun beating that dead horse.

Yeah I gotcha just havin' a little fun, lol But I'm glad other more experienced posters are saying what I rather unsuccessfully tried to say the other day. Like we know the reality, but that don't mean we gotta rehash and rehash. Nothing at all against good analysis--but I think everybody is worn out, and if there be even a slight chance it's better to focus on that than the other (even if it don't work out).

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, most setups fail in one way or another in the Mid-Atlantic up to NYC. that's why we average 15-30" a winter and not 40-60" like New England. most setups fail and just bring rain. snow is a relative rarity, especially in crappy years

This is like saying a .350 batter and a .150 batter are virtually the same because "they both fail most of the time"  

[TSSN+]

[Heisy]

So starting to get a feel on how the pattern might progress. Guess a lot is going depend on how much energy is left behind the front day 7…. Here is euro, gfs, and Canadian at same hour.

Can see GFS leaves most energy behind which formed that event day 10 or so.




.

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Remember I claimed all storms in the Feb 1-8 window.

Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

I don't think its dead.  Ive said repeatedly its the best chance we've had.  But that's a super low bar.  My larger point is...That is unlikely to be a truly snowy period for the mid atlantic.  Look at the GEFS snow probabilities...

its still way below 50% for 3" across our area...even up here I am below 40%.  That's actually below climo!  So yes its above the level of recent threats which were near ZILCH...but still its a below climo period overall.  

But is it possible SOMEWHERE in our area might get a weak wave from this...sure.  The GEFS has some hits, enough to cause that little increase in the mean to our SE.  That could end up anywhere.  But that looks like more of the same crap to me...kinda like last year...

2021-22 snowfall anomalies

where one little area got lucky with one wave and if you lived in that small geographic area you felt like it was a decent winter...but in reality it was a god awful snowfall year for the mid atlantic and a crap pattern but the one little area that got lucky with one wave just happened to be right across some of our region.  But it was never a pattern that was ever going to lead to a truly snowy year or period in a larger sense.  Just one good enough to allow someone to maybe get lucky.  

So could this upcoming pattern produce that one lucky progressive wave, sure, and could that wave end up somewhere across our area, sure.  But its going to be another thread the needle progressive wave, where the "win" zone is relatively small and the odds of any one location getting significant snow is very low and when its over 90% of the mid atlantic is probably still going to be looking at severe negative snowfall anomalies.  So I am not getting excited by it.  

I remain more interested in seeing if the -NAO looks later in Feb are true.  There are even hints on the extended GEFS, although the GEFS continues the raging SER even with the next blocking episode later Feb, but if we can time up a less hostile PNA with a -NAO later in Feb that is when maybe we could actually enter a period that I could feel more confident there is a larger percentage chance we actually make up some ground and put down some significant snowfall across a larger area of this region.  I want that.  If and when I see any hint of it I will be screaming halleluiah from the roof tops.  I just don't see it yet.  

[stormtracker]

Now when we want the energy to hang back, the models move it out quickly.   lol...We're gonna win one day.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

so you want me to lie to you and make up BS analysis,  ok 

It's a really good setup, despite a lack of blocking and a SE ridge its going to work, we're going to get wave after wave to take a perfect track and save our season.  There.  Have a good day.  

I don't think anybody is asking you to do that, man. The "dead horse" effect is there because I think everybody knows how bad it's been and how hard it is to snow this year. Don't gotta lie (wouldn't want ya to) but like...if there's no good news to report...sometime it's better not to have the reminder and just get an update if/when it gets better (I know that's what some posters do on here. If it's bad ya don't hear from 'em as much, lol) Maybe I'm wrong for thinking that, though...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't think anybody is asking you to do that, man. The "dead horse" effect is there because I think everybody knows how bad it's been and how hard it is to snow this year. Don't gotta lie (wouldn't want ya to) but like...if there's no good news to report...sometime it's better not to have the reminder and just get an update if/when it gets better. Maybe I'm wrong for thinking that, though... 

So you're saying I shouldn't analyze the pattern unless its what you want to hear?  

[psuhoffman]

Now I know why JB does what he does 

[Blizzard Hunter]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think its dead.  Ive said repeatedly its the best chance we've had.  But that's a super low bar.  My larger point is...That is unlikely to be a truly snowy period for the mid atlantic.  Look at the GEFS snow probabilities...

its still way below 50% for 3" across our area...even up here I am below 40%.  That's actually below climo!  So yes its above the level of recent threats which were near ZILCH...but still its a below climo period overall.  

But is it possible SOMEWHERE in our area might get a weak wave from this...sure.  The GEFS has some hits, enough to cause that little increase in the mean to our SE.  That could end up anywhere.  But that looks like more of the same crap to me...kinda like last year...

2021-22 snowfall anomalies

where one little area got lucky with one wave and if you lived in that small geographic area you felt like it was a decent winter...but in reality it was a god awful snowfall year for the mid atlantic and a crap pattern but the one little area that got lucky with one wave just happened to be right across some of our region.  But it was never a pattern that was ever going to lead to a truly snowy year or period in a larger sense.  Just one good enough to allow someone to maybe get lucky.  

So could this upcoming pattern produce that one lucky progressive wave, sure, and could that wave end up somewhere across our area, sure.  But its going to be another thread the needle progressive wave, where the "win" zone is relatively small and the odds of any one location getting significant snow is very low and when its over 90% of the mid atlantic is probably still going to be looking at severe negative snowfall anomalies.  So I am not getting excited by it.  

I remain more interested in seeing if the -NAO looks later in Feb are true.  There are even hints on the extended GEFS, although the GEFS continues the raging SER even with the next blocking episode later Feb, but if we can time up a less hostile PNA with a -NAO later in Feb that is when maybe we could actually enter a period that I could feel more confident there is a larger percentage chance we actually make up some ground and put down some significant snowfall across a larger area of this region.  I want that.  If and when I see any hint of it I will be screaming halleluiah from the roof tops.  I just don't see it yet.  

FWIW, I think your analysis is fair. I also don't deem it to be overly negative. This winter it is extra hard to read some of your analysis given how sucky the winter has been, but it's reality.