CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: What a waste of another year of my life. You own a mountain dude. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: What a waste of another year of my life. Damn Bro…not that bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Other than h5 maps, I check mslp in the ensemble means. There’s a faint signal of lower pressure to the SE with high pressure to the NW. I have not seen a signal like this all winter. Not even for the december cutter or the recent Jan rainstorms. First I’ve seen this. Window feb 3-7. Usual disclaimer - just one run, could change, blah blah, just something to keep an eye on other than h5 and 850s 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I mean this verbatim, is pretty horrible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This is the time frame I’ve been talking about for days now. It’s after the cold arrives, just gotta hope we keep strong confluence. Window is there we just hope and pray. The 12z euro at end of run seemed to hint at same thing forming.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: You own a mountain dude. Stuck in SoMD looking at static pics on the game cam. There's even snow on the ground out there. Don't cry for me Meadow Mountain. I just realized, Citizen Kane died an unhappy man when all he wanted was his little wooden sled. He must've lived in the MA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Other than h5 maps, I check mslp in the ensemble means. There’s a faint signal of lower pressure to the SE with high pressure to the NW. I have not seen a signal like this all winter. Not even for the december cutter or the recent Jan rainstorms. First I’ve seen this. Window feb 3-7. Usual disclaimer - just one run, could change, blah blah, just something to keep an eye on other than h5 and 850s There have been coastal signals repeatedly on ensembles past D7. Just none have made it inside D7. Tomorrow’s storm had a coastal track on ensembles like 8-9 days ago as I recall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There have been coastal signals repeatedly on ensembles past D7. Just none have made it inside D7. Tomorrow’s storm had a coastal track on ensembles like 8-9 days ago as I recall. Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that. Of course we had a coastal 2 days ago… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that. Yep, apparently...at least in this craptastic, lackluster, dud Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that. Would you guys consider D7 as the border between mid and long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Would you guys consider D7 as the border between mid and long range? Go by NWS. D0-1: short range D2-3: med range D3-5: long range D5+: fantasy range 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Now the storm is feb 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Now the storm is feb 10 Rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 hours ago, Ji said: Now the storm is feb 10 Feb 3 it says tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 that Feb 3-4 deal is one hell of an evolution on 6z. Snows for a long duration. we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Feb 3 it says tho Boundary line makes it to the Mid Atlantic by 2/3 and hangs around till a redevelopment occurs and moves out on 2/5. An interesting period for sure only 9 or 10 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Boundary line makes it to the Mid Atlantic by 2/3 and hangs around till a redevelopment occurs and moves out on 2/5. An interesting period for sure only 9 or 10 days away. Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing. This time period has been advertised for a while now so it doesn't appear to be going away. The devil though is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hate to be pessimistic No you don’t. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: This time period has been advertised for a while now so it doesn't appear to be going away. The devil though is in the details. Not much has changed on the means. The GEFS and GEPS hint at an initial wave on Feb 1, then another one right on its heels a day later with colder air involved. I didn't dig into the members so it could just be timing differences, but the upshot is there is a chance for some frozen as the cold arrives in the Feb 1-3 window. There are other chances beyond that with colder air in place. We begin to moderate around the 10th as the TPV lifts out and the NAO trends significantly positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: This time period has been advertised for a while now so it doesn't appear to be going away. The devil though is in the details. Yup. If we flush the toilet one too many times and a giant turd makes it to the Atlantic the boundary shifts west. That much of a thread the needle for frozen. That SER is a mega 570 beast. It would be 107 degrees with that in July. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 There is a neutral PNA look towards the end of the EPS and GEPS runs, with hints of it trending positive. GEFS suggestive of this too. Have to see how that plays out. Looks like the NPJ retracts a bit but haven't looked into it enough to get an idea if that is something of persistence going forward. It sure would help the mid month period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not much has changed on the means. The GEFS and GEPS hint at an initial wave on Feb 1, then another one right on its heels a day later with colder air involved. I didn't dig into the members so it could just be timing differences, but the upshot is there is a chance for some frozen as the cold arrives in the Feb 1-3 window. There are other chances beyond that with colder air in place. We begin to moderate around the 10th as the TPV lifts out and the NAO trends significantly positive. I mean, it's a pretty clean setup and way to score but there are still significant ways to muck up this period, and I know you are aware of how. All going to come down to timing between the moving/progressing TPV to our North and waves along the longwave boundary out ahead. At least we have a legit window again...now we try once more to work in a couple discrete threats/waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing. I hear you Ralph I can see the warm air flooding up the coast and the front being just west of the I-95 Corridor instead.... But in all honesty sometimes this is how we can get the big ones! Stalled boundary overunning 5-10" then the follow up caboose wave causing another 6-12". We shall see I need to see this set up still on the table by this weekend before I get really excited. Knowing our luck this is a cold from rain to some light wet snow then the cold air comes rushing in and that follow up wave is 150-200 miles further east due to a progressive pattern with a flattened SER. Oh I guess I just named another way to fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I mean, it's a pretty clean setup and way to score but there are still significant ways to muck up this period, and I know you are aware of how. All going to come down to timing between the moving/progressing TPV to our North and waves along the longwave boundary out ahead. At least we have a legit window again...now we try once more to work in a couple discrete threats/waves. It's not complicated, so that's a plus. We always have the failure modes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a neutral PNA look towards the end of the EPS and GEPS runs, with hints of it trending positive. GEFS suggestive of this too. Have to see how that plays out. Looks like the NPJ retracts a bit but haven't looked into it enough to get an idea if that is something of persistence going forward. It sure would help the mid month period. What was Chuck bazzing on about yesterday that our best chance in this N Am longwave pattern would be with a ++NAO? I tend not to read some of his stuff too deeply as it often is contradictory. Any truth to what he suggested tho? @CAPE, @psuhoffman, @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: only 9 or 10 days away. This tells the story 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I hear you Ralph I can see the warm air flooding up the coast and the front being just west of the I-95 Corridor instead.... But in all honesty sometimes this is how we can get the big ones! Stalled boundary overunning 5-10" then the follow up caboose wave causing another 6-12". We shall see I need to see this set up still on the table by this weekend before I get really excited. Knowing our luck this is a cold from rain to some light wet snow then the cold air comes rushing in and that follow up wave is 150-200 miles further east due to a progressive pattern with a flattened SER. Oh I guess I just named another way to fail? I was more thinking the boundary sets up too far S and E to do us any good, ie, too much of a good thing scenario (TPV caa push) as one way we dont win. Again, just throwing it out there because we have to be careful too when the TPV gets displaced and starts progressing along. Means are all over the SER flattening and the TPV skirting by to the N pushing in the cold but as I noted yesterday, it's a clean setup but still a thread the needle wrt timing of that push and the waves along the boundary. We can score with the boundary and cold even pushing too far S and E if we time a wave or 2 right. For now we wait because as @CAPE would say, we just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This tells the story Yea, this winter every time we get a good run on the models it’s in the day 9-10+ range and gone 6 hours later. Can we get lucky one time? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now