Heisy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Run still may be able to produce if the wave out west is timed well with TPV dive. Need proper timing and spacing to get the confluence out ahead of any shortwave that comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Still gonna be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Ya that’s more like it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Still gonna be good Ya if you like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Still gonna be goodNah the pv phases with the low so there’s no confluence ahead… this is more in line with how other models/ensembles have been showing progression. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Nah the pv phases with the low so there’s no confluence ahead… this is more in line with how other models/ensembles have been showing progression. . Thanks, I see it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 CmC seemed ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: CmC seemed ok Ya it’s more in the 18z gfs camp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said: You have excellent taste in beer. I’ll also be ordering one for myself I’ll have what he’s having Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 15” of snow to a rainy fropa in just 6 hours. Man I love the GooFuS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Models are trying....but we are still in 240 hour land so it dosent matter now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Can't parse any details on an op run in fantasy range. We know this, and yet...lol But seriously...all you can look for is a general idea of where the pattern could be headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Scraff said: 15” of snow to a rainy fropa in just 6 hours. Man I love the GooFuS! Obviously surface weather will have huge run to run variability at 200hr. What do you expect? The mid-range models have had an excellent season overall. For the most part there have been very few major head fakes to get our hopes up inside of 5 days. Models have been pretty much locked in after settling onto an outcome in the 5-7 day range. Unfortunately they have correctly locked in on rain storms. Meteorological modeling has improved tremendously over the past 3 decades... and it continues to improve further. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Obviously surface weather will have huge run to run variability at 200hr. What do you expect? The mid-range models have had an excellent season overall. For the most part there have been very few major head fakes to get our hopes up inside of 5 days. Models have been pretty much locked in after settling onto an outcome in the 5-7 day range. Unfortunately they have correctly locked in on rain storms. Meteorological modeling has improved tremendously over the past 3 decades... and it continues to improve further. You are joking right? Models can’t even get stuff right 72hrs out anymore. We seen huge jumps even inside 3 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I found the front cover for my book 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: You are joking right? Models can’t even get stuff right 72hrs out anymore. We seen huge jumps even inside 3 days. Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I found the front cover for my book "SERs I Have Known And Loved"? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons. It does seem that this winter we've seen less volatility inside Day 6...there has tended to often be one model which holds out but overall the models have been locking onto generalized storm track ideas at that range and not changing much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: "SERs I Have Known And Loved"? How to get a SER despite a displaced PV trapped under a ridge bridge! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Ohhh the pattern wants to change...the cold is now closer than it's been all winter. So it wants to change...but will the SER let it? Or I guess the bigger question is can the cold overpower the defending champion SER? Match starts this week...ding ding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ohhh the pattern wants to change...the cold is now closer than it's been all winter. So it wants to change...but will the SER let it? Or I guess the bigger question is can the cold overpower the defending champion SER? Match starts this week...ding ding! Hope it’s not like last year when Texas froze and we barley saw any cold air from that arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Hope it’s not like last year when Texas froze and we barley saw any cold air. I believe that was year before last...but yeah that, lol (I really didn't understand how that happened...I think it was an unlucky position of a PV split) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3rd-4th with an actual cold airmass in place. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Hope it’s not like last year when Texas froze and we barley saw any cold air from that arctic outbreak. You guys can have that! Our water lines froze solid! We got 7 inches of wind-driven pow in 11 degree conditions. Northerly winds gusted to 40 mph. The miniature donkeys nearly froze to death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3-4th with an actual cold airmass in place. You guys are about to get snow and very frigid weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 hours ago, eduggs said: Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons. clown maps is what we do. let us do it please. thanks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 When does the -20° air get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 And the 25” blizzard? I just want to put it in my calendar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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