Chris78 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 That storm around the 240hr mark is something else. Starts Wednesday morning and wraps up Friday morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 WB 18Z GFS on February 4. Find the puffy coat, and firewood….throw in the windchill…. 1 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 56 minutes ago, Heisy said: I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame. Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs. Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here. Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models. . It's hard to say if the GFS is "rushing" things, but yeah that period in early-mid February may well have legs. I do remember the models have been advertising a similar kind of overrunning attacking the pressing cold air starting sometime about the very end of this month into the first couple of days of February. Maybe it was last week's runs? There was a similar such event as what the 18Z GFS is now showing, just earlier (end of Jan.). And that kind of scenario has shown up on various days in this same general time frame. It may have gotten pushed back from last day or two of January but that signal has appeared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS on February 4. Find the puffy coat, and firewood….throw in the windchill…. Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC. Absolutely! LOL!! It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015. Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario. But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 53 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That storm around the 240hr mark is something else. Starts Wednesday morning and wraps up Friday morning. Longest modeled since the great 60-hour fantasy blizzard of Dec 2018...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC. Absolutely! LOL!! It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015. Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario. But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level. Ha Was thinking the same...If that's the fantasy range cold we're starting at...you'd think that could be a signal for I don't know...not 33 degrees or higher? And now we wait to see if the general idea holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 eric webb saying the flow is too fast for anything 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 eric webb saying the flow is too fast for anythingHe just wants to crush our dreams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: eric webb saying the flow is too fast for anything Excellent, here comes the snow 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC. Absolutely! LOL!! It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015. Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario. But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level. No way DCA verifies anywhere close to that. There's a reason that the majority of all the DC winter record lows are from 90+ years ago. The site of that station simply won't allow for it, but if we get decent snowcover and relatively calm winds, it could at least threaten record lows there. But get a little bit outside the real UHI and we could see some negative temps if it all comes together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: eric webb saying the flow is too fast for anything The absurd temps should be a hint somethings off. It was 15mb too deep with the arctic high in December so I suspect it's having a similar issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 35 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS on February 4. Find the puffy coat, and firewood….throw in the windchill…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: No way DCA verifies anywhere close to that. There's a reason that the majority of all the DC winter record lows are from 90+ years ago. The site of that station simply won't allow for it, but if we get decent snowcover and relatively calm winds, it could at least threaten record lows there. But get a little bit outside the real UHI and we could see some negative temps if it all comes together. Of course. I was being sarcastic with my comment. In the ~22 years that I've been in this area, there hasn't been a below zero temperature in the immediate metro area in the places I've lived. Maybe close...single digits...but not below zero. And like I said, looking back at Feb. 2007 and Feb. 2015...two of the coldest months in that time...we didn't get there (at least around DCA where I was). But yes, if that "signal" of extreme temperatures is real, we could well see some bitter cold all the same and threaten record lows as you say. And if there is any decent snow pack, outlying areas surely could dip into the negatives. I mean, look at Christmas weekend, how cold it got, and not even a coating of snow cover anywhere near here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame. Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs. Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here. Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models. . It’s Feb before DC and Balt get any snow and it’s “rushing” things. God help us if it ever takes it’s time. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s Feb before DC and Balt get any snow and it’s “rushing” things. God help us if it ever takes it’s time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS on February 4. Find the puffy coat, and firewood….throw in the windchill…. If the temperature ever reaches -6 degrees in Bowie, MD I will buy every member of this subforum a beer. I’m not joking. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the temperature ever reaches -6 degrees in Bowie, MD I will buy every member of this subforum a beer. I’m not joking. I’ll hold you to it. You can’t go wrong with sending me a belgian dubbel or better yet, a quadrupel. I’m a reasonable man - I accept mail deliveries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: I’ll hold you to it. You can’t go wrong with sending me a belgian dubbel or better yet, a quadrupel. I’ll hold you to it. But I’m a reasonable man - I accept mail deliveries. You have excellent taste in beer. I’ll also be ordering one for myself 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the temperature ever reaches -6 degrees in Bowie, MD I will buy every member of this subforum a beer. I’m not joking. It has happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, anotherman said: He just wants to crush our dreams. We don’t need him to crush dreams, wait for GFS 0Z to do that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Now I get why 18z is called happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: eric webb saying the flow is too fast for anything What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not. He was backtracking on his flamethrower prediction for Feb. just a few days ago when there was model consensus for SSW event. He is usually very good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said: You have excellent taste in beer. I’ll also be ordering one for myself one thing i've noticed over the years on these boards is that folks know their beer. I second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not. he got into it with some NE snow weenies earlier this season. I hope that is not coloring his analysis here, but I say this as someone who spent years mostly participating in the NYC sub - with some folks it's just best to ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not. After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative. In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter. So he's been objectively correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, cbmclean said: After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative. In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter. So he's been objectively correct. Edit: At least so far. I hope he faceplants hard in February but I still give it a better than even chance of the SSW effects going somewhere else and leaving us toast with our old friend the SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 00z gfs going with the other models with burying the energy in the west, so it will have a completely different solution than 18z…. Still could be good for early Feb we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 As you can see vs 18z…. Knew it was a long shot it would hold, we’ll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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