CAPE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Gimme that and I’ll call it good Sleet-fest here. Pass. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: So it looks like delayed, not denied on this tanking of the EPO, which begins close to the 25th, but peaks near the 27th-28th (so entering the short range). Impressive poleward ridging too. In fact, the Euro is so extensive with this ridging that it ends up intruding the AO domain near the end of the run, which is in clown range but has some decent ensemble support. Now I guess the question would be whether this EPO tank does what the previous two did not, which is produce snow potential in our area. Both the November 13th-20th and December 20th-27th periods saw average temperatures ~9-14F below average for all of the Mid Atlantic region, but the few events that took place during those stretches put us into the warmer sector of those systems. Hopeful that prime climo and that stout PV lobe can help get us on the board. I also recall reading that extreme November -EPO events were correlated with high latitude blocking returning later in the winter, so maybe we will see a return of that some time in mid-late February. We have a favorable pac already. Problem is cold takes a while lately to build. So we wait. But also an epo alone won’t do it. We need some other mechanism. Either AO or -NAO help or a TPV displacement that can serve as a proxy. We got the tPV help in 2015 for example. We got some AO help in 2014. I highly doubt, at least until later Feb, we get NAO help. But we might get a tpv displacement. The holy grail save would be if we get a tpv displacement early Feb then roll into a -NAO after it lifts and with a cold regime established. That’s the way we could pull a rabbit from a hat here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just want to get waxed so Doug K is wrong lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It would be comical if we went above climo for snow this winter. Our area is crazy enough to do it in one storm even...Now folks complained about 2016 being one and done, but I think anybody would take something even in the ballpark of that now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Finally a model run that times a shortwave right after a TPV dive. GFS and euro still differ, but GFS has been good lately at picking up the large scale features. Models really differ around day 7, few camps. 12z gfs had a mild version of this which impacted Ne, so we’ll see if we can build on this on 00z for once. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Gimme that and I’ll call it good I leave for work travel 1 Feb…get your shovels ready…this one is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ya I don’t think we will see -23 air temp here but hey who knows lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I don’t think we will see -23 air temp here but hey who knows lol I think that possibly Joe B was hinting around to this type of cold a day or so ago. I believe that it was the Euro, but showing 850 temps in the sub zero range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 JI hacked into the GFS this run. Snow and vodka cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: JI hacked into the GFS this run. Snow and vodka cold. The 2m temp anomaly would need another color…at the bottom…it can’t go any lower as is…ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Paging @Roger Smith paging @Roger Smith....the 18z gfs called for you. That is all! 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 looking like gfs trying to cook up another snowstorm what's w 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: Normally you would be right, but I don't think GFS is only one sniffing this out. I have more faith than usual for this timeframe. User name checks out. The big ones are sniffed out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sleet-fest here. Pass. Soundings look good IYBY starting at 246 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 happening 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: User name checks out. The big ones are sniffed out early. we've said that about 3 headfakes so far, 12/16, 12/22-23 and 1/16 all of which never happened. the big ones are sniffed out, just big rainstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: looking like gfs trying to cook up another snowstorm what's w 18z runs Also of note the SER returns with a vengeance 1036 near Bermuda. This should be fun to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I don’t think we will see -23 air temp here but hey who knows lol Funny thing is I think the latest GFS update was, in part, to fix issues with surface temps. 9 minutes ago, windycutter said: I think that possibly Joe B was hinting around to this type of cold a day or so ago. I believe that it was the Euro, but showing 850 temps in the sub zero range. Is there ever a time in winter when JB is NOT hinting at arctic cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Funny thing is I think the latest GFS update was, in part, to fix issues with surface temps. Is there ever a time in winter when JB is NOT hinting at arctic cold? If you get snow pack and 498 thickness I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: we've said that about 3 headfakes so far, 12/16, 12/22-23 and 1/16 all of which never happened. the big ones are sniffed out, just big rainstorms! You might've said it, but I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 What's interesting is that the thicknesses aren't all that impressive, but the lower-level cold push is killer. Really nice to see a system arrive as cold air is pressing...and that is some serious fresh cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: That would right the ship as they say in the Navy. Tonight is the one night I did not drink during the happy hour runs because I had to work late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: What's interesting is that the thicknesses aren't all that impressive, but the lower-level cold push is killer. Really nice to see a system arrive as cold air is pressing...and that is some serious fresh cold. That cold push with that precip would be explosive to watch…snow becoming steady after midnight heavy at times temps falling to upper teens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Funny thing is I think the latest GFS update was, in part, to fix issues with surface temps. Is there ever a time in winter when JB is NOT hinting at arctic cold? It was and it largely worked which is why the Gfs doesn’t tease blue every run anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 There are still other major issues. And it’s possible “fixing” the temps if it required bastardizing other sound equations to do it, was a net negative. I’d rather a known bias than a wildly inconsistent and inaccurate mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1899! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The holy grail save would be if we get a tpv displacement early Feb then roll into a -NAO after it lifts and with a cold regime established. That’s the way we could pull a rabbit from a hat here. Well, this is the year of the Rabbit! Also, speaking of Holy Grails... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: 1899! That must have been fun for those poor bastards. We turn up our heat and watch Netflix…they were setting themselves on fire to keep warm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame. Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs. Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here.Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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