January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[stormtracker]

This is it.  If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is it.  If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. 

Just keep Jar-Jar Binks out of it, or any of the prequels/sequels to the original Star Wars trilogy and we should be fine!!

Seriously, though.  Others have elaborated some on this but I kind of have to like the overall look of things near the end of this month and into the first part of February.  Is it another rug pull?  Who knows.  But there's been some really good cold air advertised nearby and the PV perhaps dipping south more in that time frame.  We'll see, I guess.

[BristowWx]

Let’s get some good mojo going in here. GFS looks awful through 240.  Let’s do this.  

[psuhoffman]

Maybe if we’re really lucky we’ll get a track like this 

[jayyy]

Maybe if we’re really lucky we’ll get a track like this 

So depressing to see that type of track and your area over to mine not getting any snow out of it


.

[SnowenOutThere]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is it.  If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. 

We should be taking bets on how many long range threads we are going to have before getting an inch of snow at all three airports. 

[jayyy]

We should be taking bets on how many long range threads we are going to have before getting an inch of snow at all three airports. 

.

[dallen7908]

21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Just keep Jar-Jar Binks out of it, or any of the prequels/sequels to the original Star Wars trilogy and we should be fine!!

Seriously, though.  Others have elaborated some on this but I kind of have to like the overall look of things near the end of this month and into the first part of February.  Is it another rug pull?  Who knows.  But there's been some really good cold air advertised nearby and the PV perhaps dipping south more in that time frame.  We'll see, I guess.

This is how most of these threads start - with the best look of the season in the day 10-15 period!  Fortunately, climatology is a weaker enemy than usual in early February.  ... and it's great to finally see some cold temperatures in the northeast.  

[Heisy]

Let’s get some good mojo going in here. GFS looks awful through 240.  Let’s do this.  

Looks like next viable pattern won’t be until around Feb 5-10, everything getting dumped into SW before then, but it has to move east eventually right lol


.

[Heisy]

OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath



.

[dallen7908]

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Looks like next viable pattern won’t be until around Feb 5-10, everything getting dumped into SW before then, but it has to move east eventually right lol


.

Who knows by that point but yes we are quite a ways out it seems. 

[clueless]

 I’m not a throw in the towel person. Maybe we catch a break?  

[psuhoffman]

Northern New England ski season looks to improve at least.   I’ve moved on to planning weekend ski trips. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath



.

It just keeps getting pushed back, first it was after the midweek cutter that things looked to improve and now its past February 5th. 

[Heisy]

It just keeps getting pushed back, first it was after the midweek cutter that things looked to improve and now its past February 5th. 

That’s the way it works sometimes. Just keeping hope alive, this is GFS and CMC
at day 10, we ain’t getting snow out of that pattern.



.

[DarkSharkWX]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It just keeps getting pushed back, first it was after the midweek cutter that things looked to improve and now its past February 5th. 

the best chance for something wintry is still at the very end of the month - the start of Feb

[BristowWx]

New month same theme.  It’s not cold enough at our latitude.  The deep cold never pushes through and the SER lingers to make sure it has no chance.  

[AtlanticWx]

actually, this pattern looks like a pattern that looks bad but could actually work. there's a very good cold source j north of us and even tho 500mb heights show a fairly weak SER 850mb temp anomalies and 2m temp anomalies are both BN

being on the thermal gradient should help us w/ overrunning storms too, we'll see. not a bad pattern in the peak of climo

[Superstorm]

actually, this pattern looks like a pattern that looks bad but could actually work. there's a very good cold source j north of us and even tho 500mb heights show a fairly weak SER 850mb temp anomalies and 2m temp anomalies are both BN
being on the thermal gradient should help us w/ overrunning storms too, we'll see. not a bad pattern in the peak of climo

Agree. Cold near by is better than seeing 850s shoved way into Florida.


.

[DarkSharkWX]

5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

actually, this pattern looks like a pattern that looks bad but could actually work. there's a very good cold source j north of us and even tho 500mb heights show a fairly weak SER 850mb temp anomalies and 2m temp anomalies are both BN

being on the thermal gradient should help us w/ overrunning storms too, we'll see. not a bad pattern in the peak of climo

yeah TPV sits over HB and brings down cold air down and potentially could bring the boundary south enough for a STJ wave to ride it and create an overrunning event. it's what we have been missing the whole year

 

[CAPE]

This marks the beginning of our period of hope, our change of fortune. Direct delivery of Polar air into the pattern, and the TPV is the mechanism to hand it off to the mid latitudes.

[CAPE]

Our first legit chance.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Heisy said:

OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath



.

The look around day 12-15 could work. But it’s not great, still more se ridge than I like to see, especially given the trend for the se ridge to be under represented in long range guidance. I give it a shot but I’m actually more interested in what might happen later given the complete obliteration of the PV coming up.  If the PV does get wiped out I’m not sure it takes the typical 3-4 weeks for effects here.  Most of the times we’ve been waiting on a strat event to help we need cold to build. That’s happening now just not with a mechanism to help is here. But it’s not going to be far away. And this doest look like a wind reversal just a case where the PV severely weakens. So I’m not sure the typical ridge spike effect happens here. Of the PV simply weakens  blocking could resume quickly and at a time of year it helps more and with cold close it’s possible things flip quicker than normal.  Still talking later in Feb but that’s a lot better than into March. Every week counts a lot at that point. There’s a lot of maybe in there but that’s my last hope to get an actual save here.  I could see us licking into one wave maybe early Feb but if we want a truly snowy period I think later if we get blocking is the best chance. 

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The look around day 12-15 could work. But it’s not great, still more se ridge than I like to see, especially given the trend for the se ridge to be under represented in long range guidance. I give it a shot but I’m actually more interested in what might happen later given the complete obliteration of the PV coming up.  If the PV does get wiped out I’m not sure it takes the typical 3-4 weeks for effects here.  Most of the times we’ve been waiting on a strat event to help we need cold to build. That’s happening now just not with a mechanism to help is here. But it’s not going to be far away. And this doest look like a wind reversal just a case where the PV severely weakens. So I’m not sure the typical ridge spike effect happens here. Of the PV simply weakens  blocking could resume quickly and at a time of year it helps more and with cold close it’s possible things flip quicker than normal.  Still talking later in Feb but that’s a lot better than into March. Every week counts a lot at that point. There’s a lot of maybe in there but that’s my last hope to get an actual save here.  I could see us licking into one wave maybe early Feb but if we want a truly snowy period I think later if we get blocking is the best chance. 

Just tell us who we need to sacrifice? 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Our first legit chance.

Just wanted to say your analysis of the look is spot on. It’s a very good look. But my pessimism is that based on trends lately I suspect the TPV displacement will be less severe (we’ve been head faked twice this year so far with that) and if we see any degradation of that feature the SE ridge will end up a lot worse. That’s been a repetitive error in the long range. So if we do get the looks you’re citing I think we do have a great chance. I just am skeptical and feel the most likely adjustments will make the reality not quite as favorable as it looks now. But that’s just me injecting a gut feeling not any guidance. 

[TSSN+]

Ehhh oooo 

[CAPE]

Ten+ days out and this is only a 6 hour panel. You get the general idea.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

This is it.  If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. 

Good title, Leia

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just wanted to say your analysis of the look is spot on. It’s a very good look. But my pessimism is that based on trends lately I suspect the TPV displacement will be less severe (we’ve been head faked twice this year so far with that) and if we see any degradation of that feature the SE ridge will end up a lot worse. That’s been a repetitive error in the long range. So if we do get the looks you’re citing I think we do have a great chance. I just am skeptical and feel the most likely adjustments will make the reality not quite as favorable as it looks now. But that’s just me injecting a gut feeling not any guidance. 

Sounds like big Day 7 runs coming later this week.