mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: My guess is that there’s a reason there’s no 6z euro posted its actually pretty good for the N&W folks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Won't post because of what model it is at the end of its run but... HRRR says "Choo choo snow train!" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Where that warm front is Wed morning is gonna be critical to whatever snow may fall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where that warm front is Wed morning is gonna be critical to whatever snow may fall here. where do we want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: where do we want it? Just to our south would be my guess. Maybe someone else can chime in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just to our south would be my guess. Maybe someone else can chime in on this. I believe the further south it is, the better for most. As the warmer air aloft moves over the colder surface air, that's when we get our front end thump. Closer the actual front gets, the warmer the surface gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Not bad and probably realistic the way things stand now. Would be nice to a slow tick south with that initial "nose" of WAA precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 58 minutes ago, George BM said: Won't post because of what model it is at the end of its run but... HRRR says "Choo choo snow train!" Yep end of run but HRRR kind of outlines my post above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line Good post. I feel like WAA never happen as modeled. Either it flips sooner than we all hope, or it lasts longer than forecast and we score an extra few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 is this a CAD event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: is this a CAD event? I don't think so. Low to our west, with precip out ahead of it. colder air here that precip will move over, and enhanced by the warm front that will be coming from our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit. Agreed, the 0z euro and gfs would lay 4-6" over us just to see the slow rug pull at 60 GD hours. Fitting right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Agreed, the 0z euro and gfs would lay 4-6" over us just to see the slow rug pull at 60 GD hours. Fitting right? Don’t worry, the 12z euro will probably reel you back in for a moment, just to pull the plug at 00z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I’m out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m out 12z GFS is like, snow in winchester? What snow in Winchester lololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Don’t worry, the 12z euro will probably reel you back in for a moment, just to pull the plug at 00z . his area is still doing pretty good on models, he's just north of the MD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line Yep... they are usually to far south with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Tony Pann is posting the 48hr HRRR. It’s happening 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: Tony Pann is posting the 48hr HRRR. It’s happening I saw that on his FB lol, I commented. He's talking about the speed/timing but the placement of that nose of WAA precipitation is what is key. The timing and placement kind of go hand in hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Tony Pann is posting the 48hr HRRR. It’s happening He will find the snowiest model and post it. Even if he has to dig up the Korean. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I haven’t found a model yet that has improved. Maybe that’s a good thing. Save the improvement for close in. Kind of a Jan 2000 sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: Good post. I feel like WAA never happen as modeled. Either it flips sooner than we all hope, or it lasts longer than forecast and we score an extra few inches. There are 2 factors to watch. Guidance is bad at accurately predicting both. The first is where the best area of WAA precip sets to north of the warm front. Often this is where the best mid level SW flow meets adequate cold air resistance. This will be that streak of precip that breaks out from WSE to ENE north of the boundary ahead of the storm. We know the drill…if that’s aimed north of us it’s game over. But guidance isn’t good at placing that until inside 24 hours. The second is the intensity of the banding inside that feature. If you get heavy enough precip it can hold off the WAA a bit longer by mixing the column d also because the inflow created by the banding can create a bit of a northerly flow and temporarily resist the larger southerly flow. This combo can cause a good bust where 1-2” becomes 3-5” quick. Hard to ever really predict that though. Kinda just happens usually. But first we need factor 1 to go our way to have a shot at 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Tony Pann is posting the 48hr HRRR. It’s happening It's not a real Tony Pann post until it's the GRAF. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit. Cincinnati picked up 5-6 inches yesterday. At least systems appear to be gradually traversing further SE. Hopefully an overall trend for the next couple weeks. Not banking on it though in this lackluster "Winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Unfortunately the euro doesn’t agree with the Hrrr and sends that overrunning finger into central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Unfortunately the euro doesn’t agree with the Hrrr and sends that overrunning finger into central PA. See my post above. This usually trends further north as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Right on cue the Euro shifts the WAA precip 100 miles north and cuts precip here by 60%. Easy to predict 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Right on cue the Euro shifts the WAA precip 100 miles north and cuts precip here by 60%. Easy to predict snow wise though, you only lost a half inch. at least per pivotal's 10:1 snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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