January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like there basing that on a warmer solution up here as they have introduced a wintry mix now and temps on monday in the mid 30's

Well, It kind of goes away from current logic and modeling, I could see them cutting back on accumulations because of these tics SE, But If they think we will be warm here, SNE would be either the same or warmer.

[CoastalWx]

Mark smash.

[mahk_webstah]

Very detailed and thoughtful GYX discussion, and not Chris.  Less snow Sunday night, some mixing, and Wednesday solo Ida a bit more liquid than I’m liking.

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I imagine I look okay if you do..had daddy duty all day.

Yeah it was. Maybe the 0c lines tickled the border briefly. It's still a bit precarious, but can't ignore the trends. I'd like to see 0z have a similar look

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah it was. Maybe the 0c lines tickled the border briefly. It's still a bit precarious, but can't ignore the trends. I'd like to see 0z have a similar look

You do have 420’ as well , that degree May be key 

[CoastalWx]

Man we Reggie.

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k looked great for ORH-ASH line. 

Too bad we're on the wrong side of that line. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Too bad we're on the wrong side of that line. 

Eeyore

[dryslot]

The majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance within the 12Z
model suite favor less phasing of these upper level features leading
to a progressive and weaker area of low pressure. This has resulted
in a continued downward trend in QPF with the Sunday night/Monday
system and lower snow totals. Despite both upper level features now
likely well sampled by the dense RAOB network of North America...
the northern stream wave is still at a relatively high latitude and
the satellite parallax effect can contribute to poor sampling
of the northern wave possibly leading to the waffling seen in
some model solutions. For example the NAM, which has been there
more amplified model, continues to show with a corridor of 6+
inches shifting back and forth between the mountains to the
coast with the majority of model solutions now suggesting the
highest snowfall could fall closer to the coast rather than in
the foothills and mountains. At this time there remains enough
confidence in near warning level snowfall to occur, and with the
onset time still 30 hours out will plan on holding onto the
current Winter Storm Watch as is with the take away message that
this system looks weaker and the magnitude of impacts has
trended downward.

Still, Fgen forcing on the NW side of the low will lead to strong
lift within the DGZ along with good saturation that could produce
snowfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour for several hours
Sunday night. This will lead to the best accumulating snowfall to
occur Sunday night into early Monday morning leading to another
difficult commute Monday morning. In addition to moderate snowfall
impacting the morning commute, depending on the ultimate track of
the low there will be potential for a corridor of mixed
precipitation including possibly some freezing rain. The current
consensus is for this corridor to set up along the coast and
southern NH and possibly pushing inland for a few hours to the
foothills. Overall expectations are for the wintry mix to be less of
an impact with less than a tenth of ice accretion and the most
likely result will be lower snowfall totals. Again, the main take
away is this system has trended weaker with max snowfall amounts
topping out in the 6 to 8 inch range and winds becoming less of an
issue Sunday night with more details about winds in the long term
section as the system pulls away Monday.

 

The weaker low at the surface has been pronounced today starting at 12z, If this goes back to a stronger SLP and a partial phase, Its going to go back to a NW track, We will see over the next 24hrs or so.

[duncanwxnh]

48 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

those MFers are gonna steal our snow...

Just remember, we are in Central NH. There is a reason I got an ulcer before I retired :-) It'll change again

 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  kinda like this HRRR model is telling us to up and shift the entire 'storm' 75 mi or more S of the previous consensus.   

Take those winter storm watches and move them wholesale ?    ooh, NWS can't wait to do that!  LOL

With their track record through the years, there'd be 3 inches down and S+ in Hartford before they changed lol

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Eeyore

Merely citing geography

[WeatherX]

Man we Reggie.

Building support for that


.

[Thunderblizzard]

18z RGEM looks like the Euro... some interest piqued.

[moneypitmike]

This is looking like a  classic 190/290/495 N/W deal.  An ORH/Dave special

[ma blizzard]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

This is looking like a  classic 190/290/495 N/W deal.  An ORH/Dave special

yep, we need another tick SE 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

yep, we need another tick SE 

Can a brother get 30-40 miles?  Not likely.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll just be happy with the reach around  should that materialize. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s a nice curl to the s/w as it almost tries to get pinched off with the positive tilt. 

[moneypitmike]

Congrats Pete/Chris/Hubby

Coastal Maine special.  Pit2 looking good

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Solid shift SE there from 12z 

Let's snow bitches

[WeatherX]

Start Me Up https://g.co/kgs/hVVZBQ


.

[moneypitmike]

Remember the old days before the EC was freely available people, those who had paid access would give the PBP of it?  Just thought of that while awaiting the gfs to fun.

 

Them making it available roughly coinciided with it become a whole lot less reliable.  Coincidencde?

[Thunderblizzard]

There goes the GFS too with the reach around... much more robust than 12z.

[Modfan2]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats Pete/Chris/Hubby

Coastal Maine special.  Pit2 looking good

I mean I’ll take a 4” shot with a chance at a lolli to 6 the way this season has gone.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats Pete/Chris/Hubby

Coastal Maine special.  Pit2 looking good

Yeah but I’ll probably have to hike 30 minutes up the hill behind my house to find better accumulations.    

[masonwoods]

51 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You do have 420’ as well , that degree May be key 

I’ll be up near Gorham the next 2 days hiking in the mountains so I was hoping they would receive the bulk of the snow.  If the Euro holds I’ll have to snowblow to get back in my driveway Mon night.

[Thunderblizzard]

8 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

There goes the GFS too with the reach around... much more robust than 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats Pete/Chris/Hubby

Coastal Maine special.  Pit2 looking good

I'd take that.

[WxWatcher007]

Keep the trend going please