January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’ll maybe bite if 00z big boy models keep trending that way. Literally trying to thread a needle without anything to guide the thread. 

Think we need some more thread

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol HRRR gone wild it is a pounding for you guys like 8-12” if you extrapolate. 

Still several hours of moderate to heavy snow for all. Weenie run of the year for CT. That will end up being the 10 minute highlight of my winter. Digital or not , I need a cigarette now and I don’t even smoke. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still several hours of moderate to heavy snow for all. Weenie run of the year for CT. That will end up being the 10 minute highlight of my winter. Digital or not , I need a cigarette now and I don’t even smoke. 

Looks like the UK

[CoastalWx]

Then it tries to curl in a CCB. What is that model doing?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still several hours of moderate to heavy snow for all. Weenie run of the year for CT. That will end up being the 10 minute highlight of my winter. Digital or not , I need a cigarette now and I don’t even smoke. 

watch ill end up being to far north now lol   awesome runs so far at 12z

[radarman]

Winter Storm Watch for the east slope, advys for E Franklin/ORH county

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still several hours of moderate to heavy snow for all. Weenie run of the year for CT. That will end up being the 10 minute highlight of my winter. Digital or not , I need a cigarette now and I don’t even smoke. 

 

mm  kinda like this HRRR model is telling us to up and shift the entire 'storm' 75 mi or more S of the previous consensus.   

Take those winter storm watches and move them wholesale ?    ooh, NWS can't wait to do that!  LOL

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM coming in colder but 12z was pretty torchy/north so not a shock. We’ll see just how far south it comes. 

[dryslot]

18z Nam is 4mb weaker at the surface @09z monday so that there will make it want to track further south too.

[ineedsnow]

NAM looks great

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM looks great

Nice shift south.

[wx2fish]

Solid shift SE there from 12z 

[Typhoon Tip]

well that 12z run was toss-able though.  I thought anyway.   I've been barking about that model having NW bias tendencies for years  and that run was incarnate for me.

[moneypitmike]

Woud like to see a few more tics as this may well be the inevitable head-fake.

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam is 4mb weaker at the surface @09z monday so that there will make it want to track further south too.

those MFers are gonna steal our snow...

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

those MRers are gonna steal our snow...

Ha ha, Its going to track where it wants too, Will have to wait and see, All guidance other then the Nam at 12z trended weaker and the SLP instead of tracking into the GOM it is tracking over ACK to east of Nova Scotia, If it works out fine, If not onto the 25th.

[mahk_webstah]

This new zone makes no sense.  They cut snowfall to 3-6, but then put in more rain and ice.  If the trend is south we might have less snow, but it would be all snow.  Implies no warnings coming in the update.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

Ha ha, Its going to track where it wants too, Will have to wait and see, All guidance other then the Nam at 12z trended weaker and the SLP instead of tracking into the GOM it is tracking over ACK to east of Nova Scotia, If it works out fine, If not onto the 25th.

It is a hard lesson for many.

We should at least get a good advisory and build the pack some more.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Solid shift SE there from 12z 

I’d be officially invested where you are now. I still need to see another bump to convince me but it’s looking more likely that even my area gets a little in the CCB. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think we are gonna see an elevation dependent system Take shape for northern 1/2 of SNE  . The weaker / flatter this is then the further SE It keeps trending . I’m not counting on heavy rates in a weak system , but even light to moderate wet snow at 33 Is better than this looked

I think you may see areas that got 8” or so yesterday to the west of Nashua really capitalize down toward Rte 2 elevations and of course NW Mass. I’m selling any heavier rates being more than transient during Monday 

I wouldn’t anticipate more than a inch or maybe 2 ..under 500’ at this point in Nashua or N ma.

Im watching the Kraft reach around and treating it mostly as a fraud / nuisance variety due to BL temps and not buying the precip intensity needed to accumulate much at this point 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM looks great

For who?

[PowderBeard]

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, PowderBeard said:

 

My guess is Their confidence is that of a soggie weenie right now , taking em down and maintaining a semblance of continuity with a sprinkle of  maybe  the trend reverses a bit  

[ORH_wxman]

3k looked great for ORH-ASH line. 

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is Their confidence is that of a soggie weenie right now , taking em down and maintaining a semblance of continuity with a sprinkle of  maybe  the trend reverses a bit  

Looks like there basing that on a warmer solution up here as they have introduced a wintry mix now and temps on monday in the mid 30's

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k looked great for ORH-ASH line. 

Ran that one out of my basement. Guess I have to put atleast one foot in 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Ran that one out of my basement. Guess I have to put atleast one foot in 

One foot in, one leg out of pants?

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like there basing that on a warmer solution up here as they have introduced a wintry mix now and temps on monday in the mid 30's

I don’t understand that reasoning given trends but I am not a met.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Ran that one out of my basement. Guess I have to put atleast one foot in 

I imagine I look okay if you do..had daddy duty all day.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For who?

NAMs are like 1-3” for you