January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was thinking mayo, but both images work now that I think about it..

[mahk_webstah]

Don’t you be stealing my snow…them chickens gonna come after you.

[ORH_wxman]

That’s actually a really dynamic look on the euro. That’s what you want to see if you’re trying to flip this into something good further south. That trailing energy really goes to town before the baroclinic zone is too Far East. 

[8611Blizz]

Looks like Boston get about 5" in 6 hours. Those are the best storms.

[duncanwxnh]

Keep our fingers crossed neighbor.

[MaineJayhawk]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Don’t you be stealing my snow…them chickens gonna come after you.

Gonna need some of qg-omega's north tics

[RDRY]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yo

That works for most. A lot depends on the wraparound though.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z compared to 6Z Euro snow 10:1

Nice shift south

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lock these in now.   Although I don’t want another snow day right now

[HoarfrostHubb]

Mark Rosenthal showing the good ol RAP.  Boston pounded on that

[MuddyWx]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yo

Don’t do this to me

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mark Rosenthal showing the good ol RAP.  Boston pounded on that

 

The short term mesos (HRRR/RAP) are really flat with tomorrow. Kind of weird as they are often amped on coastal systems. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Know what's interesting   I didn't know this thread existed first of all - I would have posted those thoughts here.   Not that anyways needs to care, ha

But, I was elaborating how the models have been inching SE with the rain/snow axis, as this system has both been nearing in time, but also tending to weaken and flatten out..   (by weaken ..I don't mean losing identity altogether, I just mean lessening warm thrust ending up W..etc).

Anyway, it seems this run of the Euro stopped inching and took a leap of faith.   I kind of hate this when this happens... This is sort of where this wants to go, so the Euro shows us that solution - but we cannot allow ourselves confidence enough to toss the others in lieu of this. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The short term mesos (HRRR/RAP) are really flat with tomorrow. Kind of weird as they are often amped on coastal systems. 

What do you think about surface temps even up in Mass they are warm? 

[qg_omega]

 

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know what's interesting   I didn't know this thread existed first of all - I would have posted those thoughts here.   Not that anyways needs to care, ha

But, I was elaborating how the models have been inching SE with the rain/snow axis, as this system has both been nearing in time, but also tending to weaken and flatten out..   (by weaken ..I don't mean losing identity altogether, I just mean lessening warm thrust ending up W..etc).

Anyway, it seems this run of the Euro stopped inching and took a leap of faith.   I kind of hate this when this happens... This is sort of where this wants to go, so the Euro shows us that solution - but we cannot allow ourselves confidence enough to toss the others in lieu of this. 

The system has been sharpening up slightly early on, and shifting the R/S line in the mid-Atl. NW... then flattening later on to benefit NE. The cause appears to be increasingly disjointed waves/ areas of vorticity. Overall tendency is a weaker storm with energy hanging back. More snow for places that have been receiving a little of it lately.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you think about surface temps even up in Mass they are warm? 

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

Do it

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

Agreed---little faith on that.  Could use another 30 miles on it in any case.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

Ya 925 is like +2 just before “changeover” here and gets down to 0 to -1C

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. 
 

Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see. 

I'm nosing into this conversation, I know... my experience with this particular BL evolution appeal the Euro is selling this morning, BL warmth is quite fragile with steady fall rates through an 850 mb temperature crash, which that is.  Between 54 and 60 hours,  it goes from -.5 over FIT to -5 C, with a weakly bounded 850 mb pressure contour closing off over Scott's slowly receding hair line.  

I mean...what we're looking at that is the anatomy of a marginal event, whence the flop direction is on the cold side.   If it's 34F at where cat paws go over to soaked cotton balls, they're 32.1 F in about 15 minutes of that happening when the column's imploding the way that run shows that.  Probably finishes at 30- F along Rt 2

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm nosing into this conversation ... my experience with this particular BL evolution appeal the Euro is selling this morning, BL warmth is quite fragile with steady fall rates through an 850 mb temperature crash, which that is.  Between 54 and 60 hours, the it goes from -.5 over FIT to -5 C, with a weakly boundary 850 mb pressure contour.  

I mean...what we're looking at that is the anatomy of a marginal whence the flop direction is on the cold side.   If it's 34F at where cat paws go over to soaked cotton balls, they're 32.1 F in about 15 minutes of that happening when the column's imploding the way that run shows that.  Probably finishes at 30- F along Rt 2

Yeah I’d agree. If rates/lift are robust, then it’s going to produce and lower level temps will respond. If they aren’t, then we get another “white rain” scenario outside of the higher terrain…maybe a couple of slushy inches on the grass but wet roads/driveways. 
 

The earlier closing off of the system would help too…You start the process of ageo drain and also blunt the northward extent of the low level WAA earlier than other scenarios. I’d have more confidence in snowier solutions over interior MA if we had a solid high but we’re working with a high in a terrible spot and relying on in-situ CAD and evaporational cooling on a flatter scenario. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

Fisher also flipped from 3-6" here to 1-3" about 4 hours before I got a shade under 6", yesterday.

No one is perfect. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Rainy 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Long range HRRR coming in awfully cold still loading. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Long range HRRR coming in awfully cold still loading. 

Colder than the 12z run. Not buying them yet though.

EPS also wasn’t really buying the OP run’s vicious ending…though it had a weaker version of it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Long range HRRR coming in awfully cold still loading. 

Hmm   I might be making this up but ...seems to me we've been repeating a theme where about 30 or so hours before some event, the guidance overall make a snap dash attempt at colder solutions.  Then, at 18 hours out, hint back the other way, only to go violently so when it's 6 to 12 hours before go time. 

Not sure if that cinema description is true, however... I feel like I've been to this rodeo this season and we don't have much to show for it.  Ha

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm   I might be making this up but ...seems to me we've been repeating a theme where about 30 or so hours before some event, the guidance overall make a snap dash attempt at colder solutions.  Then, at 18 hours out, hint back the other way, only to go violently so when it's 6 to 12 hours before go time. 

Not sure if that cinema description is true, however... I feel like I've been to this rodeo this season and we don't have much to show for it.  Ha

I haven’t paid too much attention as we get close in, as we are far enough south where it hasn’t mattered either way. However, the 12z euro is the “closest in” a model has had accumulating snow down to the  CT shore since Dec 11 so I have some slight interest now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Colder than the 12z run. Not buying them yet though.

EPS also wasn’t really buying the OP run’s vicious ending…though it had a weaker version of it. 

Lol HRRR gone wild it is a pounding for you guys like 8-12” if you extrapolate. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol HRRR gone wild it is a pounding for you guys like 8-12” if you extrapolate. 

Yeah I’ll maybe bite if 00z big boy models keep trending that way. Literally trying to thread a needle without anything to guide the thread.