January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway... Ptype rads have me over to snow now but it's still raining. Temp is up to 32.7 too -

Helluva finish...   LOL

Just being a little snarky there but it's true. These 5 min obs are trying to do a kind of exit face smack on phase 1 of this event.   It's like that scene in "Air Plane", when Leslie Neilson's character halts like it's an afterthought, turns back around, just so he can get one last smack in on the panicking passenger before heading back to cockpit -  Phase 1 hesitates much in the same way. hahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:16 PM, MuddyWx said:

nam giveth nam taketh

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Looks fine to me...about all I expected.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:32 PM, Cold Miser said:

What a scene indeed. I have been quite busy as well building this...

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With your luck....

[mahk_webstah]

Pounding easily 3”hour.  1” from 8:35-9:30 for a total of 7 but dramatic increase in rates last few minutes and radar looks even better.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks fine to me...about all I expected.

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I’d be surprised if the CP manages 3” today with this airmass 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:30 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

..only from the people who doubt or do not believe that CC is having an impact on winter..

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No, from people who believe that the attribution is sensationalized. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d be surprised if the CP manages 3” today with this airmass 

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Yea. I had my area on the line between 1-3" and 3-6", which I feel good about. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:38 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Pounding easily 3”hour.  1” from 8:35-9:30 for a total of 7 but dramatic increase in rates last few minutes and radar looks even better.

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Concord still snowing , may flipped to a mix of sleet between the times I checked at 6 and 8am but seems like it’s been all snow and it’s definitely over 7” new

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, from people who believe that the attribution is sensationalized. 

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it is certainly having an impact

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:40 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

it is certainly having an impact

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Agreed!!

[Typhoon Tip]

hm  I'll check in later if a late snow total update is needed...

otherwise I'm checking out on this thread/event -

 

[Great Snow 1717]

Thank god they cancelled school in the Merrimack Valley area for light rain and melting snow off of tree branches..

[jbenedet]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway... Ptype rads have me over to snow now but it's still raining. Temp is up to 32.7 too -

Helluva finish...   LOL

Just being a little snarky there but it's true. These 5 min obs are trying to do a kind of exit face smack on phase 1 of this event.   It's like that scene in "Air Plane", when Leslie Neilson's character halts like it's an afterthought, turns back around, just so he can get one last smack in on the panicking passenger before heading back to cockpit -  Phase 1 is hesitates much in the same way. hahaha

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I just came back from a trip out to the Berks - Lee, Great Barrington area. Saw 24 hours of light to mod snow amount to less than an inch. Been a similar story back in Dover. Interior or not, it's BL temps have been a major problem throughout SNE.

People in this area are not used to being laser focused on BL temps. Growing up on LI you lived and died by it for snow total accums.

This year in SNE tracking BL temps >> tracking radar. The former has been the problem, while the latter has been outperforming.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:41 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Thank god they cancelled school in the Merrimack Valley area for light rain and melting snow off of tree branches..

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They are out to lunch sometimes 

Nashua May have been rough . I saw they were frozen thru 4am

[dendrite]

Dayum. +++SN

29.3°

[PowderBeard]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:30 PM, PowderBeard said:

When it went through here is seemed like really high density stuff and piled up quickly. 

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Pounding here again. Looking at the HRRR and NAM it looks like we could break 12"?

[TalcottWx]

That r/s line is trucking east now. Looks like my house in Simsbury will be mixing within the next half hour.

[ineedsnow]

Usually a crap model hope ot can score for once 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:43 PM, jbenedet said:

 

This year in SNE tracking BL temps >> tracking radar. The former has been the problem, while the latter has been outperforming.

 

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I think folks are gonna want elevations in SNE today to accumulate more than 1-2” , unless eastern areas can wait till after 3pm and still see .3 +qpf

[mahk_webstah]

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:45 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think folks are gonna want elevations in SNE today to accumulate more than 1-2” , unless eastern areas can wait till after 3pm and still see .3 +qpf

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Or if it pounds 1-2" per hour S+, then BL temps won't matter....but those solutions haven't really been believable. I'd go 1-2" for most...but there will prob be a few bands that do better.

[mahk_webstah]

69617808614__376D0DE0-658E-49CD-AF95-AD1EEFF3D5AD.MOV

[dryslot]

KLEW 231428Z AUTO 01013KT 1/4SM +SN BKN008 OVC012 A2958 RMK AO2 CIG 005V010 P0000 FZRANO $

That stripe of precip that was modeled is legit.

[dendrite]

IMG_0632.MOVFetching info...  

 

[dendrite]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:48 PM, mahk_webstah said:

69617808614__376D0DE0-658E-49CD-AF95-AD1EEFF3D5AD.MOVFetching info...

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Yup. Big spatial dendritic aggregates. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Or if it pounds 1-2" per hour S+, then BL temps won't matter....but those solutions haven't really been believable. I'd go 1-2" for most...but there will prob be a few bands that do better.

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Right , will be hoping for that . But not counting on it. 

[mahk_webstah]

I think it’s 3” an hour and I’ve cleared a couple of spots to measure

I have missed deformation band snow.

[Kitz Craver]

Mayyyyyybeee a slushy coating to coat the mud and dog doo. Sweet. 

[wkd]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:43 PM, jbenedet said:

I just came back from a trip out to the Berks - Lee, Great Barrington area. Saw 24 hours of light to mod snow amount to less than an inch. Been a similar story back in Dover. Interior or not, it's BL temps have been a major problem throughout SNE.

People in this area are not used to being laser focused on BL temps. Growing up on LI you lived and died by it for snow total accums.

This year in SNE tracking BL temps >> tracking radar. The former has been the problem, while the latter has been outperforming.

 

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People should post 'positive snow depth change' maps instead of total snowfall.

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/23/2023 at 2:23 PM, moneypitmike said:

Ain’t doing anything here in Dudley.  

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Sme here, what you doing in Dudley? Not really a vacation Mecca.