January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z NAM came back down to Earth.

Winter 2022-23 rolls on 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Throw up the 3k snow map if anyone has 

They’re all over the place.  One run it’s up, the next it’s down. It’s a joke. You’ll get snow, 1” or 4”,  but you’ll get snow. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Mount holly radar does look interesting already, or am I hallucinating. Could see that developing into a very solid “krafty ending” by the time it gets to New England  

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Mount holly radar does look interesting already, or am I hallucinating. Could see that developing into a very solid “krafty ending” by the time it gets to New England  

The NAM was like .5 qpf all snow earlier. I think it's just a debate of what one considers to be a disappointment. I am *hoping* to get 2-4", expecting 1-3".

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Mount holly radar does look interesting already, or am I hallucinating. Could see that developing into a very solid “krafty ending” by the time it gets to New England  

Hard to say....because even the meh solutions have the CCB going over SNE later, but its a matter of how intense it is. So we'll likely see this developing to our southwest one way or the other....we'll know as it gets closer probably based on how intense it is if it's going to be good or not.

[DavisStraight]

12k NAM took away a few inches from me, I'll be happy with 2, thought the 6-7 was a pipe dream.

[512high]

Rotting @ 33 for the last three hours drizzle, watching dark blue going west and north of me

[dendrite]

Pounding huge dendies right now. 
 

 

[PowderBeard]

We had a lull from about 7:45 until 10 minutes ago. Getting crushed right now, looks like 2+ an hour rates and 30+ dbz on radar. Just measured 7" on the dot.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Flipping to heavy snow on central pa/nj border temp of 35. Encouraging 

[TalcottWx]

It looks like it's right on time with expected flip and ccb is blossoming to the SW of our region. 

[MuddyWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Throw up the 3k snow map if anyone has 

nam giveth nam taketh

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

once, what was marginal is no longer it seems....Doesn't mean it will be this way all of the time, just more often than not. I always enjoyed the rain to snow events, staring at an evergreen in the distance, hoping to catch mangled flakes mixing in. Sitting in a car, watching the rain begin to splatter, knowing the the changeover was coming! Hope to see that down here today, but the temp continues to increase here, now 37.8° No way we are dropping 5 degrees without some heavy bands moving through later.

Essentially ...yeah.   I've started noticing about 7 years ago ( prior to the 2015 spike anomaly freak) ..that began being the case, as you intimate 'more often than not'

I started referring to it as our "flop direction"  ... I mean if we're entering an event that is for all intents and purposes, even money as to whether it'll end up white or wet in the guidance and too close to have a lot of confidence either direction, we don't end up white as often.  It's like the "marginal threshold" is moving up the EC ...  We might have escaped the Marginal- and crossed into the NJ marginal+

It's possible it is a subtle distinction of CC reported through event behavior.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MuddyWx said:

nam giveth nam taketh

Well 6z gave me 8” which wasn’t happening. 2-4” seems right. Rain/ snow mix now at 32.8

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Flipping to heavy snow on central pa/nj border temp of 35. Encouraging 

Ya that’s surprising/interesting ….let’s see what happens? 

[wx2fish]

11 minutes ago, 512high said:

Rotting @ 33 for the last three hours drizzle, watching dark blue going west and north of me

Some sleet mixing here. Snow line is getting pretty close to ASH. Looks just west now on radar. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Essentially ...yeah.   I've started noticing about 7 years ago ( prior to the 2015 spike anomaly freak) ..that began being the case, as you intimate 'more often than not'

I started referring to it as our "flop direction"  ... I mean if we're entering an event that is for all intents and purposes, even money as to whether it'll end up white or wet in the guidance and too close to have a lot of confidence either direction, we don't end up white as often.  It's like the "marginal threshold" is moving up the EC ...  We might have escaped the Marginal- and crossed into the NJ marginal+

It's possible it is a subtle distinction of CC reported through event behavior.  

I do not think that is debatable.

[ineedsnow]

Light snow. Fat flakes

[moneypitmike]

Ain’t doing anything here in Dudley.  

[JJBASHB]

Flipped back over to snow in Bedford/Manchester.  

[512high]

4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Some sleet mixing here. Snow line is getting pretty close to ASH. Looks just west now on radar. 

Yes, watching on RadarScope, just wondering if its tilting more northwest, whatever at this point, few branches by my shop starting to sag

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do not think that is debatable.

heh.. we should probably take this to a climate thread; we seem to be collecting buns in here LOL

[DomNH]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Some sleet mixing here. Snow line is getting pretty close to ASH. Looks just west now on radar. 

Flipped to sleet about 5 minutes ago. 

[dryslot]

Ripping some large dendrites right now, This is some very good snow growth.

[dryslot]

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh.. we should probably take this to a climate thread; we seem to be collecting buns in here LOL

..only from the people who doubt or do not believe that CC is having an impact on winter..

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ripping some large dendrites right now, This is some very good snow growth.

When it went through here is seemed like really high density stuff and piled up quickly. 

[JKEisMan]

Snowing in Cornwall/Goshen, CT according to Mohawk Mt webcam

[Cold Miser]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

4” at home and 5” at the mountain.

Just caked on everything.  What a scene from past two events.

What a scene indeed. I have been quite busy as well building this...

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

When it went through here is seemed like really high density stuff and piled up quickly. 

Yes, This some good stuff right here.