January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[JJBASHB]

Still some snow mixing in on the Manchester/Bedford line but the flip is here.

[TalcottWx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM going for a wild finish in MA and Kev’s area now. 

Am I too far west? I'm like 8-10 miles NW of Hartford ish

[ineedsnow]

NAM looks great later on

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM going for a wild finish in MA and Kev’s area now. 

It did at 00z too

[TalcottWx]

This wasn't issued until early this morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

CTZ002-232145-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230123T2200Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow late this morning and continuing
  into the afternoon, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, highest
  totals across northwest Hartford county, in the hilly terrain.

* WHERE...Hartford County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

[Modfan2]

.58” of rain, temp steady at 35, 4.26” of rain for the month so far.

[moneypitmike]

3K or bust.

[TalcottWx]

Not in love with this transition west of CT river. We will flip, but looks better over to Kevin.

[FXWX]

25 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This wasn't issued until early this morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

CTZ002-232145-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230123T2200Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow late this morning and continuing
  into the afternoon, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, highest
  totals across northwest Hartford county, in the hilly terrain.

* WHERE...Hartford County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Some Litchfield County districts have decided to close given uncertainty about trying to have early dismissals during the transition period, as well as the most active snow period.  Local DPW crews want no part of trying to work around bus routes during late morning to mid-afternoon period.  Many times it is not about how much is going to fall; almost always about timing.

[TalcottWx]

This needs to be watched very closely today given the timing. Could be a real mess on the roads.

[ineedsnow]

2.5 and zr/rn  now

[Chris12WX]

And power is out

[moneypitmike]

33*.......oy.

[klw]

3.0 so far

[TalcottWx]

r/s line has made it's furthest punch north and west I believe. Starting to see some signs that the mix line is beginning to consolidate for a march to the SE. 

[mahk_webstah]

Not sure how much.  Looking out window maybe4-5?  Gyx very enthusiastic for the day.

starting to ge breezy

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

r/s line has made it's furthest punch north and west I believe. Starting to see some signs that the mix line is beginning to consolidate for a march to the SE. 

Would love to transition before noon here.  33 and rain just sucks.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

About 5” so far at 900’ SvT. A couple power flickers but still on so far. 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Would love to transition before noon here.

Good luck with the hormones. Have your pronouns changed?

[dendrite]

Looks like the mix line is running roughly from AQW-EEN-CON-DAW-PWM-RKD

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Would love to transition before noon here.  33 and rain just sucks.

Looks like it slides ESE. Berks and Litchfield first of course. NAM says we switch further SE around 14-16z/9-11AM.

Quite the flip in Eastern MA.

It's 5c at 925MB at 9 PM last night over Logan. Per the NAM, 925mb will drop to -3F by 1 P.M. 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good luck with the hormones. Have your pronouns changed?

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the mix line is running roughly from AQW-EEN-CON-DAW-PWM-RKD

I noticed snow growth has improved in the last 15 minutes. Hope we can hold off the changeover, although it will change back to the higher ratio deformations know if GYX is correct.

[UnitedWx]

22 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

r/s line has made it's furthest punch north and west I believe. Starting to see some signs that the mix line is beginning to consolidate for a march to the SE. 

Just drove into Simsbury via Granville. There were some mangled flakes starting to mix in up there about 20 minutes ago

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the mix line is running roughly from AQW-EEN-CON-DAW-PWM-RKD

All these years and I still can't remember all those identifiers... I need a chart lol

[moneypitmike]

HRRR moving the line to my doorstep at 10:00.

[TalcottWx]

Hopefully a nice closing shot on the backside of this thing is ultimately a sign that we have turned the page toward actual snow in SNE.

[TalcottWx]

Suggests many of us see 2-4" of snow from this. 

Then after 12z, approaching positively tilted trough amplifies, with
height falls across SNE. This will provide column cooling from top
down, and rain-snow line will begin to collapse NW to SE, reaching a
BDL-ORH-LWM around 16z/11am, then into BOS-PVD around 18z/1pm. As
mid level trough evolves into a closed circulation this afternoon,
impressive comma-head forms, with all guidance indicating moderate
to heavy qpf across the region this afternoon from west to east.
Good model agreement that comma-head precip moves across northern CT
and northern MA, including Boston. Some uncertainty how far south
heavier qpf will track, possibly clipping northern RI to just south
of Boston. This matches up nicely with previous configuration of
winter headlines, with warnings continuing for northern MA, where
high terrain and colder surface temps will promote accumulating snow
more quickly. Winter weather advisories continue southward into
northern CT, northern RI and northeast MA, including the city of
Boston. Lower amounts here as it will take sometime for snow to
accumulate on paved surfaces. Snow amounts unchanged from previous
forecast, storm total approximately 4-8" across northern MA in the
winter storm warning, and 2-4" in the advisory, I-90 corridor
southward into northern CT/northern RI and northeast MA, including
Boston.

Hi res guid in good agreement on a 2 to 4 hour window of moderate to
heavy snow as the comma-head moves across the region. Snowfall rates
of up to an inch per hour (some pixels of up to 2" per hour) is
possible during this time, as modest omega becomes collocated within
the DGZ. As the surface low moves offshore this afternoon, winds
shift from NNE to NNW, and this will help surface temps cool, along
with moderate to heavy snow providing diabatic cooling via melting,
lowering ground temps, and snow accumulating on paved surfaces.
Thus, expecting the late day commute to be impacted with moderate to
heavy snow at times, across much of the region, mainly along and
northwest of I-95.

[dryslot]

Its just dumping snow out here, Looks like 5" or so.

[TalcottWx]

R/S line is starting to progress SE nicely now, to our W.