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January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility


TalcottWx
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Snowfall amounts have been
increased a bit since the overnight forecast package, especially for
the more southern and eastern areas where snow on the back end of
the system is looking more robust. Though temperatures will be
dropping into the 33-34F range in eastern MA initially, guidance
indicates the chance for some more moderate to heavy snowfall
potential with rates of 0.5-0.75"/hour possible which would help to
dynamically cool the column and allow for accumulation. Generally
thinking 5 to 9 inches in the northern Berkshires and northern
Worcester Hills with 2-4 inches in northern CT through northern RI
and northeast MA, and a few inches for southeast MA. However, we
can`t rule out some isolated higher amounts; the HREFv3 indicates
decent potential for banded snowfall which if it sets up could cause
a localized bullseye. Snow tapers off from west to east from 5-9 pm.
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Snowfall amounts have been
increased a bit since the overnight forecast package, especially for
the more southern and eastern areas where snow on the back end of
the system is looking more robust. Though temperatures will be
dropping into the 33-34F range in eastern MA initially, guidance
indicates the chance for some more moderate to heavy snowfall
potential with rates of 0.5-0.75"/hour possible which would help to
dynamically cool the column and allow for accumulation. Generally
thinking 5 to 9 inches in the northern Berkshires and northern
Worcester Hills with 2-4 inches in northern CT through northern RI
and northeast MA, and a few inches for southeast MA. However, we
can`t rule out some isolated higher amounts; the HREFv3 indicates
decent potential for banded snowfall which if it sets up could cause
a localized bullseye. Snow tapers off from west to east from 5-9 pm.

Oh how we pray

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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Still wondering why they have Litchfield county tolland county Windham county under winter weather advisory and not Hartford county. Hoping they add us in

The Valley is not the place to be in the winter lol

The GFS would be a win IMO. Crushed up in Maine. 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Snowfall amounts have been
increased a bit since the overnight forecast package, especially for
the more southern and eastern areas where snow on the back end of
the system is looking more robust. Though temperatures will be
dropping into the 33-34F range in eastern MA initially, guidance
indicates the chance for some more moderate to heavy snowfall
potential with rates of 0.5-0.75"/hour possible which would help to
dynamically cool the column and allow for accumulation. Generally
thinking 5 to 9 inches in the northern Berkshires and northern
Worcester Hills with 2-4 inches in northern CT through northern RI
and northeast MA, and a few inches for southeast MA. However, we
can`t rule out some isolated higher amounts; the HREFv3 indicates
decent potential for banded snowfall which if it sets up could cause
a localized bullseye. Snow tapers off from west to east from 5-9 pm.

It's about perfect with what I put in.  I had 5-7" in the max axis .. but a couple of 9er's here or there is certainly within error.

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2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

 I'm getting a feeling we may be a bit surprised tomorrow in SNE, getting the feeling we may be a little surprised tomorrow after, wish the temps weren't so marginal up to 850,  

nam3km_z500_vort_neus_22.png

That’s a huge banding sig .. but the question is.. is it real . Many winters it would be.. this winter probably not 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a huge banding sig .. but the question is.. is it real . Many winters it would be.. this winter probably not 

yeah I'm skeptical, but nearly all modeling is showing some burst banding as this wraps up and is departing, I do hate to hang on to wrap around, but I'll take what I can get while I'm back this week, Wed looks like it's slipping away too so this may be the best chance for a while,who knows this winter like you said

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4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah I'm skeptical, but nearly all modeling is showing some burst banding as this wraps up and is departing, I do hate to hang on to wrap around, but I'll take what I can get while I'm back this week, Wed looks like it's slipping away too so this may be the best chance for a while,who knows this winter like you said

Wednesday is like 1-3” of snow to heavy rain . One of those 80’s deals. Looks exactly like a normal 80’s event. With decent cold behind it 

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