January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[Hoth]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

kind of out there but been a long time.. I wonder if we can get a watch out for wednesday while still under a warning tomorrow

Don't be greedy.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Horrific starts to winter do some damage to people…esp in NNE. Interventions may be required. 

Well between the snow and the Iggles, I am losing it.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Nightmare outcome here. 

[PowderBeard]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay ... in this lecture, ladies and gentlemen, we target Great Snow 1717 for migraine headache.  See if you can identify the exact moment the temple sends a shard of pain behind the eye sockets -

 

Here is the NAM's FOUS grid for Logan off the 12z run ( on right is Laguardia, but ignore that block for the purposes of this pain administration - )

BOS//792733 00513 232405 34999299   LGA//663346 00515 232106 39029500
06000773458 01415 212109 38019600   06000714265 02119 201808 41039800
12003989055 00514 171407 41010095   12007988855 02113 140808 46040200
18032989365 00409 090711 46040400   18039989357 10804 040515 51050702
24057986523 -0208 980325 49040402   24022975905 -1108 003414 45030500
30025987105 16308 953516 39000098   30008969302 04804 013115 31029995
36046978619 02909 003123 30009793   36004726812 00110 083122 28019693
42002783110 -1813 083022 32999694  

 

The data fields I bold'ed above are associated to Phase II, tomorrow into tomorrow evening, and these numeric values are important.   The "25" and "46" on the left, are QPF...  That is .71" liquid equivalence occurring as of 36 hours from 12z this morning, the time of the NAM run cycle.  The fields on the far right, ex "0000098" are the temperatures in C at 980, 900, and 800 mb levels.  00 = 0C.   98 = -2 C.  So you can see... the next interval is 009793, which correspond to 0C, -3C, and -7C at those respective levels.  

I think this is in process of still modulating in the guidance however.. .The reason I suggest that is because of those middle values, "35" and "31" - those correspond to wind direction.  35 = 350 deg around the dial starting from N ( 0 deg/360 deg). And so 31 = 310 deg and so on.   Here's the thing, typically you don't get bigger QPF numbers on wind directions that have backed that far into a W direction. 

When you see a NW wind with QPF, that is part of the notorious ANA fake-out effect.  And, I can tell you from experience, the NAM has no compunctions about lying big numbers with drying flow ( ).  However, since this entire solution is more so trending toward more reliable guidance types ( Euro and ..whatever, they're all better than this model at handling synoptic anything), I would not be surprised if the next cycle has more of a 01 of 02... offering NNE trajectory that fit matters better. 

So, this immediate abv paragraph is just offering some reasoning why we may not want to shed the NAM's .7" snow burst tomorrow.

I also like the fact that at 18 hours ... .32 has fallen with a +4, +4, 0C column.  Once you get NW of the city... that could be +1, +1, -1 say FIT -ASH... that's your bust axis for Phase 1

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

what are you studying?

Not me lol. Kids and school. 
 

Anyways enjoy up there. Should be a good pack by tomorrow night.

[wxsniss]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to poke the hornet's nest but this sorta feels like a 'when does the dam break' scenario. 

We keep seeing these models edging the big deal, and falling short ...but the next series seems to look a little closer to doing that - ... maybe they'll fight to hold back the inevitable right into now-cast when Springfield Mass is in 1/4 mi vis  5::1 pillows falling or something like that...  Talking phase 1.  I mean I'm not forecasting that, but like Will being spooked about positive busts... it does kinda sorta head scratch a last minute cave.

Phase 2 tomorrow, I've never been a fan of the old backlash - to many sorted memories of TV mets in the 1980s.  However, it occurs to me that this situation isn't quite a backlash scenario.  What is actually happening ( synoptic evolution ) is that the models are early in triggering a "main low" along the baroclinic axis as it cross the NJ shore and races by the Islands... The mid level ( 700 to 400 mb) jet mechanics are actually still way the hell and gone back SW ...and as that intense max wind core torpedos by ( 2deg lat S of the Pike and right on climate btw!), physics take over and column goes unstable over the top of a near fully saturated column.  The resulting UVM is over a large area because all of that is spatially largely taking place aloft. And thus establishes cyclonic curvature ... back along/under the N exit-entrance relay of the jet maxing.  

In other words, that's not a backlash scenario.  I don't know what we call that... it's like a smeared out coastal that is trying (the models) to disconnect the WAA phase from a more proper Norwegian cyclone model cross-section.

Thank you - I enjoyed typing this ... despite not many understanding wtf it means.   

Back to the original sentiment.  Phase 1 and 2 being sort of separate chapters in this story, I could picture both just finally going colder.  It seems the correction vectoring has been pointed there and these runs are holding back that weight.  So this part is less analytic and more angels on shoulders I guess.

Great synopsis

We're gun-shy (at least south of NH-MA border) of a positive trend of yore, but guidance is pretty solid now for one.

It's really a stretched out Miller B.

Initial pulse is pretty detached northeast from the main upper level mechanics... check out at 11z:

By 16z, cyclogenesis (with stretched out closing 850/700 lows) continues further southwest:

If we had an additional day for these trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see more consolidation around the later / southwest / better mechanics.

We'll see how this all overcomes crappy BL temps, but good rates should deliver into SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/final-call-for-sunday-night-monday.html

 

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Zoomed in BOX map

 

I like the BOX map.

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks to be caving to the other guidance.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Staying up in southern Vermont for this one. Absolutely worth a vacation day. Currently flurries with a coating that fell over night at Stratton, which should be in a very good spot for this. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks to be caving to the other guidance.

Super flat at 06z. Just like NAM was super amped. Both converging toward the middle. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Super flat at 06z. Just like NAM was super amped. Both converging toward the middle. 

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks to be caving to the other guidance.

...wtf does that mean...  the other guidance looks like ass, but the GFS has always looked like ass.  So.. .yeah, ass looks like ass.

hahaha.

It's funny though, this sort of reminds me of how 52 F in July is "crazy" cold and people shiver and wear jackets... but if that happens in January under tepid sun and no wind?  - short sleeve shirts and gaiety posts of dopamine ...

It's all conditioning.  We've just been conditioned to eating so much shit this winter, here we have a less shitty look that offers mash potatoes - maybe - still likely falling short of "climatological storm profiles" (for this time of year/region) and it is like the short sleeve shirt scenario.  

[DJln491]

A move NW for the gfs, although it was the most SE previously 

[CoastalWx]

Wish the ending wasn’t so flaccid but oh well. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wish the ending wasn’t so flaccid but oh well. 

oh ...this has to be a set up - way too easy.  

[dryslot]

It certainly was a bigger move up here as the SLP tracked over ACK this run and at 06z it was SE of there.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wish the ending wasn’t so flaccid but oh well. 

Violent endings are typically the exception. I’m still envisioning this being like a steady light to moderate 6-8 hour deal on Monday that drops 1-3”. Maybe we get lucky back here with a little more. But the intense 1-2” per hour rates are unlikely unless we really curl that upper air trough south of us…but it seems to be a bit more positively tilted than I’d like to see. There’s still some good jet mechanics there so a heavier band or two embedded may happen. 

[subdude]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... I just took it out the window in my pajamas.  No good pines in sight of my windows.

This one is across the street from me. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Violent endings are typically the exception. I’m still envisioning this being like a steady light to moderate 6-8 hour deal on Monday that drops 1-3”. Maybe we get lucky back here with a little more. But the intense 1-2” per hour rates are unlikely unless we really curl that upper air trough south of us…but it seems to be a bit more positively tilted than I’d like to see. There’s still some good jet mechanics there so a heavier band or two embedded may happen. 

Agree.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Violent endings are typically the exception. I’m still envisioning this being like a steady light to moderate 6-8 hour deal on Monday that drops 1-3”. Maybe we get lucky back here with a little more. But the intense 1-2” per hour rates are unlikely unless we really curl that upper air trough south of us…but it seems to be a bit more positively tilted than I’d like to see. There’s still some good jet mechanics there so a heavier band or two embedded may happen. 

Yeah the north ticks eliminate that. I’d be fine with LGT-MDT steady stuff, but temps blow once again. Probably another C-1” deal here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

that's the needle thread track sensitivity incarnate.  The 06z GFS and the 12z tracks vs that snow axis -

[moneypitmike]

Oh well,  there’s always February.

[radarman]

My local expectations

<350' T

350-500', T-1"

500-650', 1-2"

650-800', 2-4"

>800' 3-5"

[greenmtnwx]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Staying up in southern Vermont for this one. Absolutely worth a vacation day. Currently flurries with a coating that fell over night at Stratton, which should be in a very good spot for this. 

You should score 6 down in the lowlands of Jamaica/W. Townsend, but more like 10+ with elevation. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs yanks the ball away from most, as we’d expect.

[TalcottWx]

Stay patient 

[dendrite]

As usual, the outliers usually lose this close in.

[Cyclone-68]

The 1980’s called. They want their winter back 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

As usual, the outliers usually lose this close in.

Well stated, despite the good looks from the GFS and Euro, they were always headfakes in the end.....Down here anyways

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, radarman said:

My local expectations

<350' T

350-500', T-1"

500-650', 1-2"

650-800', 2-4"

>800' 3-5"

What near you is over 800'?  Pelham?