January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z nam doesn’t look south to me 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Way north rains to Ray

Rains to MHT lol

[Snowcrazed71]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please please be wrong NAM. For the love if God.. just once be wrong 

Although mostly everything this winter has gone in the wrong direction .... The Nam always the leader of the pack... So asking it to be wrong for once implies it's always right. The good news is.. it is not always right. We pray!

[dendrite]

It looks like the hrrr through 21hr. I think the flash to snow in Mass will be better.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z nam doesn’t look south to me 

It looked like it would be at first. 

[radarman]

Folks can discard the nam leading a late charge north at their peril, especially after it doubled down.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Rains to MHT lol

Rains to PWM rains to Maine

[ORH_wxman]

Sfc low is hanging well back from 06z so this will be better for Monday. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc low is hanging well back from 06z so this will be better for Monday. 

Yeah that’s the one thing that might be good. 

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh man that's trouble with a cap T put 1.5 expected water equi of waterlogged snow on that yikes.

Guess I just have to download to my phone took this 10 minutes ago coming home from walmart

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rains to MHT lol

After an initial burst I think it'll be dicey here until like 10-12z. We hope for a good kraft

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

Folks can discard the nam leading a late charge north at their peril, especially after it doubled down.

I feel like it’s more often right then wrong this close in with marginal set-ups.   Certainly does well nailing transitions to sleet and rain wrt warm mids. 

[dendrite]

There it is… pounding Worcester county by 15z tomorrow

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Guess I just have to download to my phone took this 10 minutes ago coming home from walmart

Do you have an iPhone or android?

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

After an initial burst I think it'll be dicey here until like 10-12z. We hope for a good kraft

It’s coming. 

[dendrite]

Snowing at BOS @18z

[wx2fish]

Yeah looks much better tomorrow

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Do you have an iPhone or android?

 

Android old and cheap lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m selling more than flakes at the end here. Isn’t this a fraud five? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Android old and cheap lol

Just screenshot your picture, crop it and then post it.  That should make it a considerably smaller file size.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m selling more than flakes at the end here. Isn’t this a fraud five? 

Not necessarily. Mid levels close off.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not necessarily. Mid levels close off.

What is going on , I.e the mechanism for the back side snows of high intensity hanging back so far west 

[ineedsnow]

Thats a ton of precip on the NAM

[CoastalWx]

The initial WAA stuff wasn’t south, but the CCB stuff did shift quite a bit. 

[dryslot]

12z Nam looks good.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s amazing how borderline temps are. All over New England. I can’t recall anything like it. Winds go NW and it struggles to drop to 32 lol.

mm ... roughly along a line from Portsmouth NH to Springfield VT and N are < 25 F, with DPs in the upper teens and lower 20s.  That's a bit below 'marginality'  - that has me wondering actually.  Particularly as this weak low along the front is passing roughly 75 W longitude, and that modestly denser low level air may get tapped and tucked.   

You're right in the general sense that it is marginal everywhere below that approximate latitude above, but that's also nearby and could affect phase one of this QPF "if" ageo were to even 10kts.   I wouldn't bother mentioning if that cold BL lurking/hanging over top wasn't there...  This is a pretty classic "cold capping" scenario in that area as they are quickly/densely overcasting as of dawn with zip gradient for mixing.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is going on , I.e the mechanism for the back side snows of high intensity hanging back so far west 

The nrn part of the trough moving in starts to pinch off and close. When that happens, the CCB starts develop and you get a nice happy ending.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

mm ... roughly along a line from Portsmouth NH to Springfield VT and N are < 25 F, with DPs in the upper teens and lower 20s.  That's a bit below 'marginality'  - that has me wondering actually.  Particularly as this weak low along the front is passing roughly 75 W longitude, and that modestly denser low level air may get tapped and tucked.   

You're right in the general sense that it is marginal everywhere below that approximate latitude above, but that's also nearby and could effect phase one of this QPF "if" ageo were to even 10kts.   I wouldn't bother mentioning if that cold BL lurking/hanging over top wasn't there...  This is a pretty classic "cold capping" scenario in that area as they are quickly/densely overcasting as of dawn with zip gradient for mixing.  

I was more talking  about tomorrow, but I do know what you mean. You wonder if the lower levels are modeled a little warm by a few degrees. That typically can/does happen, but lately hasn’t really materialized due to the lack of cold. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Does the happy jerker stay north of 90 or does it squeeze any south?

[wxeyeNH]

NAM way south   Here is 10:1 clown from 12Z compared to 6Z