January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s the furthest north outlier at the moment so it’s prob wrong. But in this winter, I get hedging. 

It always seems to be tossed in these outlier situations and I recall at least several in recent memory where it was more right than wrong . Just hate relying on wrap around rain to snow to get 1-3”

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z hrrr getting rain into SNH. Looks like low goes over the islands. 

I think it'll get close here from like 04z-11z before things slide back south. Wouldn't be surprised if it starts as snow, but then rains for a bit overnight. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

I think it'll get close here from like 04z-11z before things slide back south. Wouldn't be surprised if it starts as snow, but then rains for a bit overnight. 

Cheering on some  for you. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It always seems to be tossed in these outlier situations and I recall at least several in recent memory where it was more right than wrong . Just hate relying on wrap around rain to snow to get 1-3”

Yeah we’ll you aren’t getting much on the front end so most of us are relying on the monday CCB stuff south of ORH-ASH line. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s amazing how borderline temps are. All over New England. I can’t recall anything like it. Winds go NW and it struggles to drop to 32 lol.

[TalcottWx]

9 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

All Hail TalcottWx 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we’ll you aren’t getting much on the front end so most of us are relying on the monday CCB stuff south of ORH-ASH line. 

Surprised there’s flakes flying now. Figured rain to rain and then we’ll see 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still am having trouble with this 

There's a new Reverend in town I'll show u the way

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For Ginx

Oh man that's trouble with a cap T put 1.5 expected water equi of waterlogged snow on that yikes.

[ORH_wxman]

HRRR looks violent on Monday. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Surprised there’s flakes flying now. Figured rain to rain and then we’ll see 

Plenty cold for flakes now. WAA starts this aftn, especially just above boundary layer.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr smokes Monday.

 

Edit ninja’d lol.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Surprised there’s flakes flying now. Figured rain to rain and then we’ll see 

Main precip shield doesn’t get in here until tonight and that’s what will be rain. Any scattered stuff earlier will prob be snow. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we’ll you aren’t getting much on the front end so most of us are relying on the monday CCB stuff south of ORH-ASH line. 

My concern is we get the obligatory tics north today so I am more wet than white from front end snows then too far west for CCB snows. 

I sense one of those winters where Dave ends up with 3X my snow totals even though we aren’t that far away

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Had you voted "no" in the 'willl you need to use your snowblower this year' poll?  I had moved mine to the poll-position a couple weeks ago in advance of some half-assed threat.  Maybe I"ll try to start it today for shits and giggles.

 

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That pic doesn't even do it justice some of the pines and birch trees already crying for their mama's lol for some reason when I go to post pics it says file is to big and no idea how to make it smaller.. 

Screenshot it

[mahk_webstah]

This a nice overnight discussion from WPC

Northeast... 
Days 1-2... 

A deep upper trough traversing the Mississippi Valley on Sunday 
spawning a wave of low pressure in the Southeast will track up the 
Southeast coast Sunday night and off the New England coast by 
Monday morning. Ahead of the upper trough, unusually rich moisture 
for late January races up the Eastern seaboard Sunday night. At 
the same time, a sufficiently cold air-mass will reside over the 
interior Northeast. There is a slight chance (10-20% chance) for 
freezing rain accumulations >0.1" in parts of the central 
Appalachians of WV/VA and the Catskills. There is a rather large 
swath of 40-60% probabilities for at least a very light coating of 
freezing rain from the Blue Ridge and Laurel Highlands to the 
Poconos today as well. Temperatures will not be sub-freezing along 
the I-95 corridor to result in periods of snow Sunday evening, but
their more inland and elevated neighbors to the north and west 
have much better odds of receiving heavy snow, especially from the 
southern tier of NY on north and east into central ME. Strong 
vertical ascent beneath the right-entrance region of a jet streak 
lifting north over ME and southeast Canada, combined with 
anomalous moisture content (PWs >90th climatological percentile
according to NAEFS at 06Z Mon), will account for heavy periods of 
snow from the Catskills and Adirondacks on east to the Berkshires, 
southern VT and NH, and just north of the ME coastline Sunday 
night into Monday morning. After the initial front end thump via 
850-700mb WAA Sunday night, the 850mb low forming over the 
southern New England coast early Monday morning directs low-level 
moisture flux within easterly flow back into southern New England. 
This conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture will lead to a brief 
deformation axis of snow that could result in a couple inches of 
snow across southern New England on Monday morning. Latest WPC 
PWPF shows 40-60% probabilities for >8" of snow in the Catskills, 
northwest MA, and portions of the Green and White Mountains of VT 
and NH. There are also some

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

This a nice overnight discussion from WPC

Northeast... 
Days 1-2... 

A deep upper trough traversing the Mississippi Valley on Sunday 
spawning a wave of low pressure in the Southeast will track up the 
Southeast coast Sunday night and off the New England coast by 
Monday morning. Ahead of the upper trough, unusually rich moisture 
for late January races up the Eastern seaboard Sunday night. At 
the same time, a sufficiently cold air-mass will reside over the 
interior Northeast. There is a slight chance (10-20% chance) for 
freezing rain accumulations >0.1" in parts of the central 
Appalachians of WV/VA and the Catskills. There is a rather large 
swath of 40-60% probabilities for at least a very light coating of 
freezing rain from the Blue Ridge and Laurel Highlands to the 
Poconos today as well. Temperatures will not be sub-freezing along 
the I-95 corridor to result in periods of snow Sunday evening, but
their more inland and elevated neighbors to the north and west 
have much better odds of receiving heavy snow, especially from the 
southern tier of NY on north and east into central ME. Strong 
vertical ascent beneath the right-entrance region of a jet streak 
lifting north over ME and southeast Canada, combined with 
anomalous moisture content (PWs >90th climatological percentile
according to NAEFS at 06Z Mon), will account for heavy periods of 
snow from the Catskills and Adirondacks on east to the Berkshires, 
southern VT and NH, and just north of the ME coastline Sunday 
night into Monday morning. After the initial front end thump via 
850-700mb WAA Sunday night, the 850mb low forming over the 
southern New England coast early Monday morning directs low-level 
moisture flux within easterly flow back into southern New England. 
This conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture will lead to a brief 
deformation axis of snow that could result in a couple inches of 
snow across southern New England on Monday morning. Latest WPC 
PWPF shows 40-60% probabilities for >8" of snow in the Catskills, 
northwest MA, and portions of the Green and White Mountains of VT 
and NH. There are also some

You love those guys.

Can envision you firing up that URL from your book marks and slowly taking off garments of clothing and applying lipstick while reading their discussions.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You love those guys.

Can envision you firing up that URL from your book marks and slowly taking off garments of clothing and applying lipstick while reading their discussions.

All good but the lipstick baby.  They do a good job with continuity and have done well recently.  I also like the technical discussion and helps reinforce what youse Mets are sayin.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the HRRR has the right idea for Monday. 

[ORH_wxman]

You can already see the 12z NAM will be south of 06z through 6 hours. Question is how far south. 

[TalcottWx]

3-6" please 

[HoarfrostHubb]

34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That pic doesn't even do it justice some of the pines and birch trees already crying for their mama's lol for some reason when I go to post pics it says file is to big and no idea how to make it smaller.. 

Yeah... I just took it out the window in my pajamas.  No good pines in sight of my windows.

[NorEastermass128]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR looks violent on Monday. 

 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr smokes Monday.

 

Edit ninja’d lol.

How violent?  I’ve got a 7:30pm flight out of Logan tomorrow. Risk of delay/cancellation?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

 

How violent?  I’ve got a 7:30pm flight out of Logan tomorrow. Risk of delay/cancellation?

Probably a delay at worst. Might just be fine. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

 

How violent?  I’ve got a 7:30pm flight out of Logan tomorrow. Risk of delay/cancellation?

Yes. Though the worst of it may be little before that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

HRRR gets 3-6" into Boston/128 area

[dendrite]

This should be more Krafty than 6z

[CoastalWx]

Nam still looks warm to me.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

My p/c forecast is basically ranged at 2”-7” so that’s helpful…

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam still looks warm to me.

Way north rains to Ray