January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yeah but if if I say that at the beginning of the season and then only say “No changes” on my show each week, you’re not tuning in to watch, I’m adding nothing. 

That's because the poor guy only has five posts a day

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha that’s like a Giants fan that hates the Patriots saying “Screw the Pats, they are going 0-16 this season. F*ck ‘em.”

I guess they would be correct if the Pats go 0-16?  But no one is patting them on the back saying “Hey, solid analysis. Your deep understanding of football teams there really showed.”

I pride myself in glazing eyes over with excessive data to support what is sometimes fantastically incorrect.

  

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think this event has ever really been a true SWFE. It’s mostly been a coastal (albeit a hugger at times) once we were inside of 4-5 days. It just has no high pressure so most of the solutions have been pretty warm. 

Its not a SWFE because the confluence does spur redevelopment, but the primary still hangs on a bit longer than we would like with such a marginal airmass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I pride myself in glazing eyes over with excessive data to support what is sometimes fantastically incorrect.

  

I could have written a book (actually, I did) on why I'd be burpn', fartn' and trackn' all January, but 'alas....all I have really tracked is @qg_omega's daily post count.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

On the flip side, the guy who predicted the Patriots going 16-0 is out a job. Correct analysis (at least in his head) be damned. That New York douchebag would likely be hired as a coordinator.

One would hope there would be more critical thinking involved there by the people analyzing a prediction, ha.  I think that’s what we are getting at.

Like someone in summer who is obsessed with heat and dews, saying it’ll be hot and humid this summer, especially July and August…then wanting credit for that skillful “call.” If that person were to exist of course.

[wx2fish]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z 

Yeah I thought that too at first glance. Still slamming Monday too 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z 

That's a wrap....around

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah I thought that too at first glance. Still slamming Monday too 

Yeah starting to get hard to ignore the Monday stuff. I’d still like to see the sfc low hand back a little more. The more low level support for that CCB, I think the best chance it can go nuts….help keep the BL from trying to dry out a little. 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One would hope there would be more critical thinking involved there by the people analyzing a prediction, ha.  I think that’s what we are getting at.

Like someone in summer who is obsessed with heat and dews, saying it’ll be hot and humid this summer, especially July and August…then wanting credit for that skillful “call.” If that person were to exist of course.

All right you got me!

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wonder if there was damage around here due to the first part of the storm having the snow/sleet/rain combo. That built up a thin layer on branches etc. the snow on Friday during the day was low ratio but it clung to the branches like it was heavy and wet.  Saw some big branches down.  

Went thru that in March 18

[mahk_webstah]

So the GFS is progging a strong WCB push for CNE NNE and then CCB that’s more for southern New England? In other words, a storm that in the end gives a lot of us at least a few inches?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah starting to get hard to ignore the Monday stuff. I’d still like to see the sfc low hand back a little more. The more low level support for that CCB, I think the best chance it can go nuts….help keep the BL from trying to dry out a little. 

Sone serious Omega and TTs. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

So the GFS is progging a strong WCB push for CNE NNE and then CCB that’s more for southern New England? In other words, a storm that in the end gives a lot of us at least a few inches?

Need to get off the schneid here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

So the GFS is progging a strong WCB push for CNE NNE and then CCB that’s more for southern New England? In other words, a storm that in the end gives a lot of us at least a few inches?

Yeah the GFS run does share the wealth pretty good. Obviously that requires both parts of the storm to go as advertised but it’s a good solution to make snow lovers fairly happy 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Need to get off the snide here.

I hope you do.  I can’t tell you how much I’ve enjoyed walking in the woods with a nice snow cover lately.

[mahk_webstah]

What did the gfs ultimately show?  Accumulations?  How far south does some decent snow get?

[kdxken]

Just get the poor kids some more snow.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/21/metro/flurries-thick-flakes-snow-is-welcomed-by-many-massachusetts-especially-younger-set/

[mahk_webstah]

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

That will come north. 

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

That will come north. 

Because?

[Typhoon Tip]

Trend ended from what I’m seeing. Or slowed.

Best hope is to have the low level cold sort of missed again… 

Im not a big fan of the old backlash idea for the end game  … too many painful memories growing up with that con lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

So normally one should expect half what those snow products show.  
 

3-6”?

[George001]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Because?

The h5 energy is strung out some but it looks like it favors a track inland, not offshore due to how far NW the energy is.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This winter is so depressing in SNE. You literally could Not draw it up worse 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

The h5 energy is strung out some but it looks like it favors a track inland, not offshore due to how far NW the energy is.

I don’t think we’re getting an inland track.  The problem is no high to hold cold in for long even with a coastal track

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So normally one should expect half what those snow products show.  
 

3-6”?

That 10:1 I thought

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don’t think we’re getting an inland track.  The problem is no high to hold cold in for long even with a coastal track

When the track goes west of the benchmark, it usually isn't good for much of SNE without decent cold locked in at all levels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

Funny of my area into se NH is catching the bullseye in this run....same region that has taken it on the chin over the past several years.

'Bout time-

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

When the track goes west of the benchmark, it usually isn't good for much of SNE without decent cold locked in at all levels.

Wrong. My ideal track is between the BM and ACK....ORH hills out to Berkshires over the cape.