January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[TalcottWx]

Should be snowing out in the far NW corner of CT now, in the Salisbury area.

[jbenedet]

  On 1/23/2023 at 12:32 PM, TalcottWx said:

My temps haven't gone over 35F though. It helps that we aren't at 40F, right?

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I mean…very marginally. But you are going to lose a lot in terms of poor ratios vs those clown maps.

[Typhoon Tip]

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/23/2023 at 12:44 PM, alex said:

7” here. Not bad given we just had an advisory 

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Is there a difference between 7" of advisory snow compared to warning snows? Asking for a friend.

[Damage In Tolland]

33.1 as it slowly slides down . Seems like 11AM or so for the flip 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2023 at 12:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

32.7 at home...had risen to about 33.3.

Different world here at work in Chelsea....barren of snow, save for a few meager piles that scream "We have a contract and needed an excuse to use the plow for once".

Guessing still about a 4" soggy pack at home with still a decent amount on trees.

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Yep. Sad times.

[dendrite]

Growth picking up with the mid-level goodies starting to crank. 

[wx2fish]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:06 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pouring snow now. Hopefully this continues to progress Southeast and everybody gets in on it.

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That heavier banding kicked is kicking it east kinda in steps with better lift

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:23 PM, dendrite said:

Growth picking up with the mid-level goodies starting to crank. 

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The real stuff is coming, and the snow growth continues to improve here as well.  Going out to walk and measure. Will send pics for the needy.

[wxeyeNH]

27.8F  Light snow  4.25"

[dryslot]

More often then not.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
735 PM Update...
Not much to update at this hour... have simply loaded in
observations and blended into the forecast. As usual, the
interior is holding onto cold air better than any model
predicted, so have kept temps below freezing for the most part
where they are now. According to modeled thermal profiles...
right about now is the greatest extent of rain and mixed
precipitation. Now that low pressure is entering the Gulf of
Maine, cold advection will bring thermal profiles back below
freezing in the coming hours.

[wokeupthisam]

27.3/27.1 with snow picking up again and better growth.  Heard sleet against the windows around 5am, power blinked about 5:30a just as wind kicked up suddenly from the N NE, eyeballing 5.5in new since yesterday at the snow stick

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

33.1 as it slowly slides down . Seems like 11AM or so for the flip 

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I think you may flip sooner than 11:00. My gut is you may be flipped to snow around 10:00 10:30. That line is falling pretty much to the south and east pretty quickly when I look over to the west side of Connecticut. Once that new batch starts coming in, that Ryan's going to change quickly to snow

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

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Agree!!..

[Lava Rock]

5.75"

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

I was surprised we kept our snow cover overnight.  I guess that’s the difference between 33* rain and 40* rain.

Based on waking up to the mouse, I think we had done sleet overnight as well.  
 

at work in Dudley (CT line) now.  Hoeing yo see flakes.

[Professional Lurker]

Decided at 630am to head out to breakfast. Went north to the Putney diner. The flip to snow happened at the vt line, and by the time we were heading home, we saw trees down, branches snapping. Got off at exit 2 to hit the vt County deli and heard a couple of shotgun blasts in the woods.

The trees are struggling with this.

Time to shovel. Lol

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[alex]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:16 PM, dryslot said:

Is there a difference between 7" of advisory snow compared to warning snows? Asking for a friend.

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Lol. I prefer 7” advisory. Less space for disappointment. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:39 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think you may flip sooner than 11:00. My gut is you may be flipped to snow around 10:00 10:30. That line is falling pretty much to the south and east pretty quickly when I look over to the west side of Connecticut. Once that new batch starts coming in, that Ryan's going to change quickly to snow

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Could be. Down to 32.9

Would like to see radar look a little better to the SW though 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be. Down to 32.9

Would like to see radar look a little better to the SW though 

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I think the better forcing is north for awhile until it wraps up. But you want to see a nice slug of echoes vs banded stuff. HRRR tries to wrap it up good this aftn so we shall see. 35.6 here now.

[ineedsnow]

Snow sleet mix now

[Typhoon Tip]

I get the impression looking at rad trends like this phase 2 might be oversold a bit for this afternoon.

Guess we'll have to now cast our way to either glory, or falling back to seasonal trend of ever diminishing returns ... which this latter has about a 10-0 record ...  

[wx2fish]

12k Nam definitely not as wild as 6z. Seems to favor the CEF-ASH axis for the highest amounts after 15z

[CoastalWx]

12z NAM came back down to Earth.

[Spanks45]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

Expand  

once, what was marginal is no longer it seems....Doesn't mean it will be this way all of the time, just more often than not. I always enjoyed the rain to snow events, staring at an evergreen in the distance, hoping to catch mangled flakes mixing in. Sitting in a car, watching the rain begin to splatter, knowing the the changeover was coming! Hope to see that down here today, but the temp continues to increase here, now 37.8° No way we are dropping 5 degrees without some heavy bands moving through later.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

12z NAM came back down to Earth.

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Kraft got pulled over after the 06z run

[powderfreak]

4” at home and 5” at the mountain.

Just caked on everything.  What a scene from past two events.

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/23/2023 at 1:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be. Down to 32.9

Would like to see radar look a little better to the SW though 

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Just got to work in West Hartford and we do now have snow mixing in with the rain. Just started to come down when I came in about 10 minutes ago. 

[wxmanmitch]

7.0" as of about 20 minutes ago. There was a slight crunch a couple of inches down so we had a touch of freezing rain overnight. Double digits should be attainable here, maybe a foot depending on how the CCB performs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Throw up the 3k snow map if anyone has