January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Breath into a paper bag.

how did you see through me so cleanly?

[UnitedWx]

31 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Take them up I think. 

I agree. 30 being stingy with accumulation, but at this point I understand. Starting to feel this one a little, there's flurries in the air here now

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Reggie has the Monday deal further north and a little more flaccid.

[HoarfrostHubb]

For Ginxy- some pine stuff

 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

how did you see through me so cleanly?

Other then some north tics and some south tics, I think the areas that have been pegged last several cycles do well, And i'm talking about front end snows, Reach around is a wildcard.

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Reggie has the Monday deal further north and a little more flaccid.

Yeah looks like it. Definitely a little colder than the nam on the front side 

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Other then some north tics and some south tics, I think the areas that have been pegged last several cycles do well, And i'm talking about front end snows, Reach around is a wildcard.

Yes I think we are narrowed in and locked for 6-10, but I think 8-12 is very much on the table.  Look at that radar man.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Reggie has the Monday deal further north and a little more flaccid.

Still juicy for my area

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Yes I think we are narrowed in and locked for 6-10, but I think 8-12 is very much on the table.  Look at that radar man.

That's what the reggie has but i'll believe it when other models have it, GFS is pretty far south and right now, Its the southern outlier so lets see if it moves NW at 12z.

[mahk_webstah]

also some random flakes on the walk this morn.  atmosphere is moistened up and snow should come in fast and hard I would think.  temp is low 20s and hard to see it getting too much past 30 today.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's what the reggie has but i'll believe it when other models have it, GFS is pretty far south and right now, Its the southern outlier so lets see if it moves NW at 12z.

lots of the mesos have it, and doesn't the nam?  I think from me to you is probably the max zone in this storm.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still juicy for my area

https://www.google.com/search?q=juicy+frut+song&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS934US934&oq=juicy+frut+song&aqs=chrome..69i57j46i13i512j0i13i512l5j46i13i512j0i13i512.3334j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:6c787daa,vid:nQGRZvOreGY

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah looks like it. Definitely a little colder than the nam on the front side 

Reggie is really good for those who stay mostly snow. Big hits there to ORH. But southeast where they are relying on Monday’s changeover it was kind of weak. Prob like 1-3” of slop finish. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still juicy for my area

Yeah you’re in good shape overall even if you do mix or change to rain for a bit.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

https://www.google.com/search?q=juicy+frut+song&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS934US934&oq=juicy+frut+song&aqs=chrome..69i57j46i13i512j0i13i512l5j46i13i512j0i13i512.3334j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:6c787daa,vid:nQGRZvOreGY

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re thinking under an inch?

For most south of pike, I’d say that is likely

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay ... in this lecture, ladies and gentlemen, we target Great Snow 1717 for migraine headache.  See if you can identify the exact moment the temple sends a shard of pain behind the eye sockets -

 

Here is the NAM's FOUS grid for Logan off the 12z run ( on right is Laguardia, but ignore that block for the purposes of this pain administration - )

BOS//792733 00513 232405 34999299   LGA//663346 00515 232106 39029500
06000773458 01415 212109 38019600   06000714265 02119 201808 41039800
12003989055 00514 171407 41010095   12007988855 02113 140808 46040200
18032989365 00409 090711 46040400   18039989357 10804 040515 51050702
24057986523 -0208 980325 49040402   24022975905 -1108 003414 45030500
30025987105 16308 953516 39000098   30008969302 04804 013115 31029995
36046978619 02909 003123 30009793   36004726812 00110 083122 28019693
42002783110 -1813 083022 32999694  

 

The data fields I bold'ed above are associated to Phase II, tomorrow into tomorrow evening, and these numeric values are important.   The "25" and "46" on the left, are QPF...  That is .71" liquid equivalence occurring as of 36 hours from 12z this morning, the time of the NAM run cycle.  The fields on the far right, ex "0000098" are the temperatures in C at 980, 900, and 800 mb levels.  00 = 0C.   98 = -2 C.  So you can see... the next interval is 009793, which correspond to 0C, -3C, and -7C at those respective levels.  

I think this is in process of still modulating in the guidance however.. .The reason I suggest that is because of those middle values, "35" and "31" - those correspond to wind direction.  35 = 350 deg around the dial starting from N ( 0 deg/360 deg). And so 31 = 310 deg and so on.   Here's the thing, typically you don't get bigger QPF numbers on wind directions that have backed that far into a W direction. 

When you see a NW wind with QPF, that is part of the notorious ANA fake-out effect.  And, I can tell you from experience, the NAM has no compunctions about lying big numbers with drying flow ( ).  However, since this entire solution is more so trending toward more reliable guidance types ( Euro and ..whatever, they're all better than this model at handling synoptic anything), I would not be surprised if the next cycle has more of a 01 of 02... offering NNE trajectory that fit matters better. 

So, this immediate abv paragraph is just offering some reasoning why we may not want to shed the NAM's .7" snow burst tomorrow.

I also like the fact that at 18 hours ... .32 has fallen with a +4, +4, 0C column.  Once you get NW of the city... that could be +1, +1, -1 say FIT -ASH... that's your bust axis for Phase 1

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

lots of the mesos have it, and doesn't the nam?  I think from me to you is probably the max zone in this storm.

Dude you’re going to get good snows. Take an edible. 

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Reggie has the Monday deal further north and a little more flaccid.

snowblower cancel.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

lots of the mesos have it, and doesn't the nam?  I think from me to you is probably the max zone in this storm.

Reggie is 12"+,The other mesos have 6-10"

[Baroclinic Zone]

Jack fetish's

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude you’re going to get good snows. Take an edible. 

I'm high on snow.  The scene is so great up here now.  Long walks in the woods, up to ridge tops, and in parts of the woods that I don't go at other times due to moisture, ticks, mosquitos.  It is so awesome around here, and the thought of a thicker cover, and pack that could last a few weeks has me all fired up lol.  You really should up to the Lakes area this week.  Take the kids snow hiking, or just beg your wife for a day to drive up and chill.

[Damage In Tolland]

So it’s falling apart on the Jack reacher? Sigh 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude you’re going to get good snows. Take an edible. 

I think he's already into some next level drugs, He's having radar hallucinations, Dropped some acid maybe?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm high on snow.  The scene is so great up here now.  Long walks in the woods, up to ridge tops, and in parts of the woods that I don't go at other times due to moisture, ticks, mosquitos.  It is so awesome around here, and the thought of a thicker cover, and pack that could last a few weeks has me all fired up lol.  You really should up to the Lakes area this week.  Take the kids snow hiking, or just beg your wife for a day to drive up and chill.

Well there’s work and school lol. 
 

Hopefully we can salvage something down here. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think he's already into some next level drugs, He's having radar hallucinations, Dropped some acid maybe?

Horrific starts to winter do some damage to people…esp in NNE. Interventions may be required. 

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well there’s work and school lol. 
 

Hopefully we can salvage something down here. 

what are you studying?

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well there’s work and school lol. 
 

Hopefully we can salvage something down here. 

(Cough cough) sick day (cough cough) go skiing at WaWa

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Horrific starts to winter do some damage to people…esp in NNE. Interventions may be required. 

I think its viral, And it looks like it made its way south too.

[ineedsnow]