January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[DJln491]

Definitely leaning towards pessimism as well. Find the model with the worst solution and bank on it- helps to deal with the pain.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Where the 00z hrrr is where I’ll lean. The way this season has gone I definitely have no issue leaning pessimistically. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:18 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Where the 00z hrrr is where I’ll lean. The way this season has gone I definitely have no issue leaning pessimistically. 

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The 18z run was so cold that I find it almost unrealistic that 00z would come in colder or hold serve. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:13 AM, DJln491 said:

Definitely leaning towards pessimism as well. Find the model with the worst solution and bank on it- helps to deal with the pain.

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I’d rather not have expectations but be optimistic that it will come, and appreciate whatever does. No pain. Work the process and have fun. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:20 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The 18z run was so cold that I find it almost unrealistic that 00z would come in colder or hold serve. 

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It’s already much warmer. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:27 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d rather not have expectations but be optimistic that it will come, and appreciate whatever does. No pain. Work the process and have fun. 

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I agree with this approach 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:31 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s already much warmer. 

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Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB

[tunafish]

Is the antecedent airmass colder than progged up here because of the fresh snow cover?  Or does this question make a certain Tolland poster confused?

Didn't expect to be sitting at 16.2°F this early.

[wx2fish]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:44 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB

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Yeah that run is absurd on Monday 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:44 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB

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Lol that’s wild.  12-18” zone.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:58 AM, powderfreak said:

Lol that’s wild.  12-18” zone.

 

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Tough to totally ignore that. I mean...a foot? No, but it senses something.

[Chris12WX]

  On 1/21/2023 at 11:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM NARCAN has 3" at KASH....maybe 2" here.

Seems reasonable.

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Do you have a Euro Narcsn?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:02 AM, Chris12WX said:

Do you have a Euro Narcsn?

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For 12z, yea

[powderfreak]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to totally ignore that. I mean...a foot? No, but it senses something.

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You get like 0.60” QPF as snow in a 3-hr period.

Just crushing 1-2”/hr rates with 5-6” in 3 hours.

[tunafish]

  On 1/22/2023 at 1:58 AM, powderfreak said:

Lol that’s wild.  12-18” zone.

 

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Oh my

(Toss it?)

[40/70 Benchmark]

[dryslot]

0z Nam back to amping up the slp, 4mb stronger at the same hr as the 18z run.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:04 AM, tunafish said:

Oh my

(Toss it?)

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Yeah... that's tossed.  But wish it wasn't

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:05 AM, dryslot said:

0z Nam back to amping up the slp, 4mb stronger at the same hr as the 18z run.

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Can't be good for anyone down here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't be good for anyone down here.

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It's not terrible

[dryslot]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't be good for anyone down here.

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Its not really., There is some front end back towards Northern MA and the berks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:11 AM, dryslot said:

Its not really.

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Still gets Ray's hood 2-3" through hour 36

[HoarfrostHubb]

Through 42 on Pivotal 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:12 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still gets Ray's hood 2-3" through hour 36

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It’s better with the backside stuff too.

[Torch Tiger]

Looks great!

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully we can trend it back N a bit more, very lean for ski country.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 3k NAM gets a little more into Ray land

[wx2fish]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:09 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't be good for anyone down here.

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Thermals look pretty similar here, riding the line for a while. Its definitely juicier further north. Could see it struggling until things start crashing southeast. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:20 AM, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully we can trend it back N a bit more, very lean for ski country.  

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It's ok... TauntonBlizz90210 will be back in Taunton by then

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/22/2023 at 2:22 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's ok... TauntonBlizz90210 will be back in Taunton by then

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what about the snowmobile trails and etc.?  Dryslot?  Winterwolf? 

wishing and willing this one north.  Besides the NAM has 3-4" here, that's too much.  1" would be fine