January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take that.

same 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s trend 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take that.

Who wouldn't take that! Rate this winter has gone cut those in half and still would take!

[ineedsnow]

hope we can get the snow to melt from trees.. if not the weight could be a problem

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hope we can get the snow to melt from trees.. if not the weight could be a problem

No. Keep it on and maximize damage. 

[Sled]

Wire up new hitch mounted sander? Figured I wouldn't even have to bother this season at this rate.

[masonwoods]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hope we can get the snow to melt from trees.. if not the weight could be a problem

Good point.  I was outside and noticed all the trees were still covered and the pines were still being weighed down.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

There goes the GFS too with the reach around... much more robust than 12z.

In a quasi analogous way it's similar to this last system we just went through...with a lead sort of burst of isentropic lift rain and snow where-is lucky...then a ball of instability snow burst comes through after the fact.  

interesting -

That also snows pretty darn hard for 3 or so hours in NYC-HFD corridor.  That oughta make Kevina happy

[brooklynwx99]

it looks like we’re seeing the 700mb vort tick farther W, leading to a better chance for legit wraparound precip

[Chris12WX]

Intrigued

[Damage In Tolland]

Man.. I think it might snow 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. I think it might snow 

Funny thing was, this supposedly didn’t have a chance…horrible airmass. 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hope we can get the snow to melt from trees.. if not the weight could be a problem

Don’t worry yourself with such things.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. I think it might snow 

OH it's no question the day's models have heard your bitchin' and are doing their best.  I just don't know if it's highly believable.  I don't know ...I'm not un-confident .. heh. 

The thing is, these needle threaders can wiggle a small amount and have a big impact on gradation of ptypes and amounts therein.   That's A

The second thing, this is legit trending colder in the low levels... It appears the models were too warm in the BL across and as we are nearing this thing, there's some feedback coming from that correction.  So as the system is flattening in the flow, we are getting a superposition of that over top a BL that's correcting.   It's not correcting hugely. ...yet. So let's not get carried away. But it's a marginal system thermally, so it sensy to perturbations.  The last several cycles of entire GEF cluster, including the operational...are actually tracking the low along a like-able trajectory for snow climo.. .But it's been raining clear back to NW CT to the Manadnocks.   ...correcting the BL colder makes that interesting.  Ice and IP are in the discussion, too.  

Lastly, the lagging jet dynamics forcing a new plume of moderate snow burst has been slowly emerging as an end game changer - perhaps.

[CoastalWx]

Still need to see 00z continue the trends. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny thing was, this supposedly didn’t have a chance…horrible airmass. 

I am still terriblly scarred and skeptical and assuming all falls apart 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still need to see 00z continue the trends. 

Yea, glad I'm not doing final until tomorrow

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still need to see 00z continue the trends. 

Other than the fact that most have shifted SE, is there any reason to suspect that should continue furhter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH it's no question the day's models have heard your bitchin' and are doing their best.  I just don't know if it's highly believable.  I don't know ...I'm not un-confident .. heh. 

The thing is, these needle threaders can wiggle a small amount and have a big impact on gradation of ptypes and amounts therein.   That's A

The second thing, this is legit trending colder in the low levels... It appears the models were too warm in the BL across and as we are nearing this thing, there's some feedback coming from that correction.  So as the system is flattening in the flow, we are getting a superposition of that over top a BL that's correcting.   It's not correcting hugely. ...yet. So let's not get carried away. But it's a marginal system thermally, so it sensy to perturbations.  

I do wonder if todays slight cloud induced thermal bust parlays into some of that correction.

[WeatherX]

Let’s vector into February


.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do wonder if todays slight cloud induced thermal bust parlays into some of that correction.

Typically that doesn’t end up mattering much but in a really marginal setup it can be the difference. Tip likes to call it “cold capped”….ala Dec ‘97 storm. If you have trouble heating the sfc, then the adjacent 925-950 layer ends up maybe one half tick colder and that could matter for those on the line. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am still terriblly scarred and skeptical and assuming all falls apart 

Oh I agree.  But this was the one that didn’t have a shot, just found that ironic.  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Other than the fact that most have shifted SE, is there any reason to suspect that should continue furhter?

I think we are probably at the max of that. My guess anyways. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think we are probably at the max of that. My guess anyways. 

I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Other than the fact that most have shifted SE, is there any reason to suspect that should continue furhter?

The forecast went from the relaxation Of a Easy Rainer to now the potential of some snow and palpitations 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though. 

Yeah same lol. But I’m not sure it will keep going SE again at 00z. Would just like to see it hold.

[dryslot]

When messenger says it will stop, It will.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though. 

I don't think we're done correcting the BL cold though.

By the way, the GFS' mid week shift on the 18z is almost pants shitting...  That's a major impact like out near the Quabbin and along Rt 2 ...with 6" thump followed by IP/ice 2010 December style.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

This is looking like a  classic 190/290/495 N/W deal.  An ORH/Dave special

Hopefully a pouring rain for SE of Pike/495.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Typically that doesn’t end up mattering much but in a really marginal setup it can be the difference. Tip likes to call it “cold capped”….ala Dec ‘97 storm. If you have trouble heating the sfc, then the adjacent 925-950 layer ends up maybe one half tick colder and that could matter for those on the line. 

Yes, all I am saying...negligible impact, but sometimes synoptically negligible variations have major impacts on sensible weather.