January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Watches already out for VT

Winter Storm Watch

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
604 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023

VTZ013>015-211030-
/O.CAN.KALY.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230121T0000Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WS.A.0001.230122T2100Z-230123T1800Z/
Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Stamford, Bennington,
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, Brattleboro,
Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
604 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible Sunday afternoon through Monday
  afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more
  possible.

* WHERE...Bennington, Western Windham and Eastern Windham
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be hazardous into this evening and
  difficult later Sunday into Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers will continue this afternoon
  before gradually tapering off tonight. Greatest amounts will
  be at elevations above 1000 feet. The actual track of a winter
  storm Sunday into Monday remains uncertain and this will
  impact how much snow occurs

You just need a little tweak to get good snow, the rest of us down here need a big one.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam keeps tickling 

[Chris12WX]

34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam keeps tickling 

Don’t do it lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z NAM matches my first call pretty well....ignore the 10:1 clown.

[mahk_webstah]

Nice overnight trends for CNE and far western SNE:

WPC

Recent 00Z guidance has shown a little stronger confluence over 
Quebec than previous runs that is limiting the northerly extent of 
the precipitation field. Guidance does maintain a potent upper 
trough over the Mid-South on approach, but the aforementioned 
confluent flow is forcing the trough to remain more 
positively-tilted in the 500mb layers by 06-12Z Monday. This is 
leading to the best frontogenetical forcing and strongest vertical 
ascent beneath the right-entrance region of the 250mb jet streak 
to become positioned more offshore rather than over central New
England, rather than a more robust, intense FGEN setup over 
northern New England. Think the latest PWSSI is showing a 
reasonable swath of >40% probabilities of Moderate impacts from
the Catskills and southern Adirondacks to the Green and White 
Mountains of VT and NH respectively, and across central ME. These 
areas can still witness some banding on the northern flank of the 
850mb low as it tracks south of Long Island and off the 
Massachusetts Capes by early Monday morning. 
 

GYX

The keys to this forecast, especially the rain/snow line, will be pinning down the track of the low- and mid-level circulations amid only a marginally-supportive air mass for snow. Ensemble consensus brings the surface low SW to NE across Cape Cod or just beyond it before deepening over the Gulf of Maine; tracks closer to the coast introduce warmer air through the low levels... although it would be an outlier solution to come close enough to the coast to jeopardize snow accumulation over the interior, especially when considering the 21.00Z solutions flowing in this morning trending southward. Thus fairly strong confidence exists for interior zones to remain all-snow, except in the warm Merrimack Valley and toward the Mass border as a whole. Even slightly more southern tracks bring snow to the Maine coast with more favorable northerly drainage flow reinforcing sub-freezing conditions in the low-levels. Latest ensemble solutions also favor a near- or just-south-of- the coast track for the mid-level circulation... leaving the coast-ward half of the forecast area in a favorable region for classic deformation/FGEN forcing... most pronounced over central/southern Maine, where the amplifying low over the Gulf of Maine will increase forcing overhead. Regardless of the circulation`s track... UVVs are likely to be concentrated in the mid-levels with a fair amount of DGZ overlap before snow falls through a deep isothermal layer...likely to be right around freezing closer to the parent circulation. Latest ENS/GEFS solutions show about a 50-70% chance of keeping this layer below freezing at the coast; while I don`t think this is enough to include the Midcoast in the watch just yet, this would be the area to look at for trends favoring a more southern low track, which may allow strongest forcing to tap into cooler air and produce strong snowfall rates on Monday.

[TalcottWx]

10 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ha just stumbled on to his thread for the 23rd, Surprised by who started it, QPF distribution is quite thin, Ribbon thin but if you end up in that sliver, Its going to rock.

Trying to keep the SNE enthusiasm alive. 

[masonwoods]

8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam keeps tickling 

I picked up 9” yesterday and I’m hoping I can build on this next week and not see it washed away.  

[dryslot]

Almost a carbon copy of yesterdays.

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Almost a carbon copy of yesterdays.

And they hint at this possibly slipping a bit s and e, and their discussion implies a zone of heavier wolf.  I bet we see more orange in the next map.

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Almost a carbon copy of yesterdays.

Looks pretty good for now. Overnight runs a little better for just N&W of MHT to SW NH. There may be a burst on the front and back ends south of the gradient, but well have to see how the 12z stuff looks. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Looks pretty good for now. Overnight runs a little better for just N&W of MHT to SW NH. There may be a burst on the front and back ends south of the gradient, but well have to see how the 12z stuff looks. 

Have to watch for an earlier intensification at the surface, Right now, That doesn't happen until its near DE Maine in the GOM.

[dryslot]

It still has the bulk of the precip east at the surface on the 06z Euro.

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Have to watch for an earlier intensification at the surface, Right now, That doesn't happen until its near DE Maine in the GOM.

Then there's the 12k nam, subfreezing down to ORH the whole event with IP/ZR. Selling it, but its funny how cold it is at the sfc. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Then there's the 12k nam, subfreezing down to ORH the whole event with IP/ZR. Selling it, but its funny how cold it is at the sfc. 

There is some confluence showing over QUE that looks to bleed SE so we have to watch that too coming up, Models really struggle recognizing CAD early on until we start getting inside 48 hrs or so.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah.  Toss that NAM run as much as I’d like another 6”.   I wonder if Hippie gets some snows out of this though

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  Toss that NAM run as much as I’d like another 6”.   I wonder if Hippie gets some snows out of this though

You are still in the game for a quick thump man!

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It still has the bulk of the precip east at the surface on the 06z Euro.

If that’s mostly front end I approve.  Could be 8 in 8 hours

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You are still in the game for a quick thump man!

If I was a little closer to the NH border maybe.  Winchendon, Ashburnham.   But I’m south of Gardner.   Expecting rain with maybe an inch

[mahk_webstah]

Some of you SNE folks should pick a cool pub in the Monads and go up for lunch and then a snow hike one afternoon.  It’s not far away and if you go during a storm could be awesome.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, TalcottWx said:

Trying to keep the SNE enthusiasm alive. 

The 6Z GFS should at least give the weenie something to quiver over, let's see if it has a clue

[Great Snow 1717]

29 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Then there's the 12k nam, subfreezing down to ORH the whole event with IP/ZR. Selling it, but its funny how cold it is at the sfc. 

George broke into the Nam 12 K control room and he is now in charge!

[Winging_it]

1 hour ago, masonwoods said:

I picked up 9” yesterday and I’m hoping I can build on this next week and not see it washed away.  

Looking more and more like a net gain for you. Hoping to at least break even here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  Toss that NAM run as much as I’d like another 6”.   I wonder if Hippie gets some snows out of this though

I am skeptical I see much of anything from this. I’m not sure how much my lat/long helps without elevation and either way it’s turning to rain.

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am skeptical I see much of anything from this. I’m not sure how much my lat/long helps without elevation and either way it’s turning to rain.

Looks like another inch of rain for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Almost a carbon copy of yesterdays.

Not for me.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is pretty warm. So different from Hrrr.

[dryslot]

Going to get a slammy on the 12z Nammy.

[dendrite]

Nice run here verbatim, but no wiggle room. That’s an isothermal pasting.

[512high]

Clear out storm drains............

[dryslot]

I better get more gas for the tractor.