The Appetizer: Light Snow general 1-2 " event 1/22-1/23

[Baum]

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a  the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent. Here's a taste of some local weather offices takes:

LOT:

 BUT THE MESSAGE REMAINS   
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GENERAL 1   
TO MAYBE 3 INCH TYPE EVENT FOCUSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

Quad Cities:

SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE   
POSSIBLE NE OF THE QCA TOWARDS ROCKFORD. BUMPED POPS UP, WITH LIKELY   
POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OR SO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

Peoria,IL:

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. 

 

Fort Wayne, IN:

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH FOR THIS EVENT, BUT TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

Toledo, OH:

THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO APPROXIMATELY 1-2"   
OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH UP TO 3" LOCALLY, 

Milwaukee, WI

KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY 50 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN LOWER   
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY 1-3   
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.   

 

[Frog Town]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a  the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent. Here's a taste of some local weather offices takes:

LOT:

 BUT THE MESSAGE REMAINS   
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GENERAL 1   
TO MAYBE 3 INCH TYPE EVENT FOCUSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

Quad Cities:

SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE   
POSSIBLE NE OF THE QCA TOWARDS ROCKFORD. BUMPED POPS UP, WITH LIKELY   
POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OR SO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

Peoria,IL:

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. 

 

Fort Wayne, IN:

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH FOR THIS EVENT, BUT TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

Toledo, OH:

THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO APPROXIMATELY 1-2"   
OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH UP TO 3" LOCALLY, 

Milwaukee, WI

KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY 50 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN LOWER   
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY 1-3   
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.   

 

Nice summation!  TY

[Hoosier]

7 hours ago, Baum said:

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a  the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent. Here's a taste of some local weather offices takes:

LOT:

 BUT THE MESSAGE REMAINS   
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GENERAL 1   
TO MAYBE 3 INCH TYPE EVENT FOCUSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

Quad Cities:

SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE   
POSSIBLE NE OF THE QCA TOWARDS ROCKFORD. BUMPED POPS UP, WITH LIKELY   
POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OR SO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

Peoria,IL:

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. 

 

Fort Wayne, IN:

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH FOR THIS EVENT, BUT TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

Toledo, OH:

THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO APPROXIMATELY 1-2"   
OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH UP TO 3" LOCALLY, 

Milwaukee, WI

KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY 50 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN LOWER   
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY 1-3   
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.   

 

Kind of tricky to pin down where highest amounts will be in LOT cwa.  Guidance is all over the place.  Some stuff pointing south, other stuff farther north.

[A-L-E-K]

DAB

[Chicago Storm]

DAB

indeed.


.

[Hoosier]

ORD needs 0.3" to reach 5".  Can we do it?

[Chicago Storm]

9 hours ago, Baum said:

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent.

at this point, that doesn't even look to be the case.

[Hoosier]

Non-globals like the NAM/HRRR/RAP seem to have better snow farther south in LOT (though still light)

[Baum]

34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

at this point, that doesn't even look to be the case.

IZZI concurs. I'll have to wait for the next crew to come in and throw out his roque forecast to counter in the morning.

[hawkeye_wx]

The 18z Euro suddenly greatly increased the band of snow up through Cedar Rapids.  We went from 1" on the 12z to 3+" on the 18z.  The 18z H5 maps show a sharper wave over my area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's just a one-run blip.  Other models are much drier.

[RCNYILWX]

The 18z Euro suddenly greatly increased the band of snow up through Cedar Rapids.  We went from 1" on the 12z to 3+" on the 18z.  The 18z H5 maps show a sharper wave over my area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's just a one-run blip.  Other models are much drier.

Not to suggest that this event is going to be anything more than a DAB+ sort of deal, but think that the relative "dryness" of model runs and tick back up from 18z Euro is mostly related to guidance struggling with the rather nebulous forcing in this setup. Good proxy is 850 mb and 700 mb RH, which haven't changed much on the Euro and the global models in general. If you have saturation down to 850 mb and 700 mb is saturated with enough lift, it's usually gonna snow, putting amounts aside.

I think the wonkiness of the NAM is two-fold: struggling like the other guidance with the forcing mechanisms and also having an issue related to its convective scheme parameterization that I think causes it to hold onto insignificant dry layers for too long. This will be the case more often in modest vs. strong forcing. And since the 3km NAMnest is run from NAM initialization, the dry air issue will carry over. This is probably the case too for the other CAMs running off the WRF core. Also, the RAP and CAMs are inherently less reliable farther out in their ranges.

While it's quite possible/probable some areas only get a light dusting, I'd be surprised if there's areas that literally don't snow as implied by runs with 0 QPF response. Otherwise, for eastern IA and Northern IL, thinking 1-2" amounts still attainable, probably not localized up to 3" anymore though.

[Baum]

24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not to suggest that this event is going to be anything more than a DAB+ sort of deal, but think that the relative "dryness" of model runs and tick back up from 18z Euro is mostly related to guidance struggling with the rather nebulous forcing in this setup. Good proxy is 850 mb and 700 mb RH, which haven't changed much on the Euro and the global models in general. If you have saturation down to 850 mb and 700 mb is saturated with enough lift, it's usually gonna snow, putting amounts aside.

I think the wonkiness of the NAM is two-fold: struggling like the other guidance with the forcing mechanisms and also having an issue related to its convective scheme parameterization that I think causes it to hold onto insignificant dry layers for too long. This will be the case more often in modest vs. strong forcing. And since the 3km NAMnest is run from NAM initialization, the dry air issue will carry over. This is probably the case too for the other CAMs running off the WRF core. Also, the RAP and CAMs are inherently less reliable farther out in their ranges.

While it's quite possible/probable some areas only get a light dusting, I'd be surprised if there's areas that literally don't snow as implied by runs with 0 QPF response. Otherwise, for eastern IA and Northern IL, thinking 1-2" amounts still attainable, probably not localized up to 3" anymore though.


 

my thread just got street cred. Thank you.

[RogueWaves]

0z NAM came in hot for mby/SEMI with a 3" hit. Would be a fantastic way to start the return to winter

Wider view:

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not to suggest that this event is going to be anything more than a DAB+ sort of deal, but think that the relative "dryness" of model runs and tick back up from 18z Euro is mostly related to guidance struggling with the rather nebulous forcing in this setup. Good proxy is 850 mb and 700 mb RH, which haven't changed much on the Euro and the global models in general. If you have saturation down to 850 mb and 700 mb is saturated with enough lift, it's usually gonna snow, putting amounts aside.

I think the wonkiness of the NAM is two-fold: struggling like the other guidance with the forcing mechanisms and also having an issue related to its convective scheme parameterization that I think causes it to hold onto insignificant dry layers for too long. This will be the case more often in modest vs. strong forcing. And since the 3km NAMnest is run from NAM initialization, the dry air issue will carry over. This is probably the case too for the other CAMs running off the WRF core. Also, the RAP and CAMs are inherently less reliable farther out in their ranges.

While it's quite possible/probable some areas only get a light dusting, I'd be surprised if there's areas that literally don't snow as implied by runs with 0 QPF response. Otherwise, for eastern IA and Northern IL, thinking 1-2" amounts still attainable, probably not localized up to 3" anymore though.


 

Do you think a blanket 1-2", or would you favor the s/se LOT cwa for those amounts?

[RogueWaves]

Not sure what to think about being under SN zone back to back days

[hawkeye_wx]

Unsurprisingly, the 00z Euro did pull back a bit from its 18z run.  However, it still has a decent, light event.  I'd like to get some insulation on the ground before the cold moves in.  I'd take 2".

[Frog Town]

12Z NAM coming in a little more juiced for snow starved parts of the sub, less the lake affect crew....  

[A-L-E-K]

Duster 

[Frog Town]

10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Duster 

Beauty's in the eye beer holder...or however that goes.  

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Duster 

Going to parlay your calls for the next 2 events and take the over here, and the under next week 

[cyclone77]

Will go 1.5-2.0" for here/QC for this one, like as I mentioned previously will be our heaviest event of the season to date.  Should get us to near/over the 7" mark for the season.

[Malacka11]

Top event of the season underway!!

[SchaumburgStormer]

DAB so far. #3 event, start the presses 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Looks like some decent banding over the loop right now, shame it’s transitory. 

[cyclone77]

Well we finally cleared the 2" hurdle with our 2.3" last night/this morning.  Nice to see the grass tips finally covered up.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Been awhile since I’ve checked the ol’ Wrigleyville Earthcam

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville

[IWXwx]

Top 3 event here and maybe #1, as it is still snowing. We had 2.2" on 11/12 and 2.5" on 12/22.

1.9" at my 7AM CoCoRaHS reading, so it might approach the magical 2.5" mark.

[nwohweather]

Definitely looks like a solid 2-4” incoming, snow wasn’t supposed to start until 10 AM yet it’s coming down pretty good at the moment 

[Frog Town]

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Definitely looks like a solid 2-4” incoming, snow wasn’t supposed to start until 10 AM yet it’s coming down pretty good at the moment 

Agreed.  Coming down pretty solid here at 7:30am in TOL

[hoosierwx]

LMK had us at 1/2 inch total and right now at 3 plus and still a couple hours to go. Might end up around 4.  They have been poo-pooing the Wednesday system and saying maybe an inch so that one is looking good for a foot.