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January 22nd Winter storm threat


clskinsfan
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Why.. why why.. is it so warm! LOL! The track is not bad, but the warmth is annoying. Maybe can tick down on the temps a bit and be happier. GFS has been terrible, so I hope it still is, but we do know, we fail easily in these parts so that door is wide open, and we are likely to walk into the failure. 

 

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GFS / NAM showing some snow for my area. Therefor I keep some hope alive I see an inch or two out of this. Any accumulating snow would be nice at this point honestly. I need some snow in my life. That 4-5” I saw up in Rochester NY held me over, but I need some hometown snow.

Would I prefer an advisory to warning level snow? Of course. Will I celebrate a slushy 2” out of a low chance threat? Fucking right I will.


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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

GFS / NAM showing some snow for my area. Therefor I keep some hope alive I see an inch or two out of this. Any accumulating snow would be nice at this point honestly. I need some snow in my life. That 4-5” I saw up in Rochester NY held me over, but I need some hometown snow.

Would I prefer an advisory to warning level snow? Of course. Will I celebrate a slushy 2” out of a low chance threat? Fucking right I will.


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Haven’t seen a flake since my trip to WY in October. Imagine reach prim climate before thanksgiving.

 

Anyway, I feel you on this.

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The differences between some of these models 72hrs out is embarrassing. 

Agreed. I know it’s not a perfect science and technology is improving as we go along… but my god. 45 and rain and 33 and 2-3” of snow IMBY is a pretty big spread 3 days out. Really hope 00z tonight into 12z tomorrow brings some clarity.


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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You guys can count on the NAM. It’s reliable.

If there was a sole model that could be counted on then this job would so easy a monkey could it.

Instead, we have models that I can only imagine were created by a monkey fucking a football.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s close here, so noise matters.

Ya it might matter but it’s still noise when the rain snow line moves 7 miles lol. It’s random error not necessarily a trend.  It’s also hard to compare bevstaw 12z dropped like 1-2” on northern areas with that late development and 18z ends before we see that part. But comparing up until then they are close in terms of where the snow is. 18z upped totals an inch or two in some banding. I saw nothing that looked like a real significant change. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s close here, so noise matters.

Brother we are so close. Probably the worst place to be in all honesty. We will track and create threads and dream and still get crushed in the end most likely. Would be better off to the east where you know it is over. This winter sucks. And I will say it again. If we have another Nina next winter I am going to just go play golf all winter. F this shit. 

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Brother we are so close. Probably the worst place to be in all honesty. We will track and create threads and dream and still get crushed in the end most likely. Would be better off to the east where you know it is over. This winter sucks. And I will say it again. If we have another Nina next winter I am going to just go play golf all winter. F this shit. 

we’re soooo close. I’m going to be of the same mindset if our area gets near shafted the rest of the winter


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