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January 22nd Winter storm threat


clskinsfan
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1 hour ago, jayyy said:


I think my area over to emittsburg and points WNW could catch some snow out of the Sunday - Mon event. The odds of a significant event are fading quickly, but I’m not ruling out a couple inches at this juncture. It’s too early to throw in the towel for my area.


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Same for my location in western augusta county

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17 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Not going to hold my breath on the NAM look here, BUT if I'm not mistaken one of @CAPE's big hits last year was a storm that looked certain to be OTS/too far north (can't remember which way the globals had it) and was first brought back to us by... the NAM 12km.

Ya. We will be hoping for the best here, but preparing for the worst. Pinning hopes on the NAM and a very marginal airmass. It will work out somewhere.. get a little elevation and you can start getting a bit more enthusiastic. I am not biting yet. I would think this will be less than 10:1 during the day. Snowfall accumulation should be reduced because it is the NAM, it is not 10:1, and we just are not super cold. NOW, we do have a good sun angle (had to say it!) so that at least is helpful, but falling at night would be better. 

 

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Not going to hold my breath on the NAM look here, BUT if I'm not mistaken one of [mention=1005]CAPE[/mention]'s big hits last year was a storm that looked certain to be OTS/too far north (can't remember which way the globals had it) and was first brought back to us by... the NAM 12km.

Really hoping to see improvements at 00z tonight as we get closer to the 72 hour window. Especially on the GFS. Models should be beginning to line up over the next day or so. Pretty decent spread remains considering it’s D3ish
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Just now, jayyy said:


Really hoping to see improvements at 00z tonight as we approach the 72 hour window. Especially on the GFS.


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12z GFS was colder. PSU mentioned models are starting to meet in the middle which won't get it done. It's not hopeless yet though. This should be the type of system that if it does take a decent track any area that gets heavy precip. and has some elevation would be in the game for some snow.

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