SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Several recent ORD Februarys are insulted by those posts The winter equivalent of getting the severe season in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Because the GFS is more of an outlier now, I'm currently leaning toward the foreign guidance to be more likely on the right track. The warning type event is less likely, but that may not mean a whiff (maybe ALEK was onto something haha). Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Something I noticed on the GFS... look how it's handling the wave coming into the northern Plains around the time that our southern stream system approaches. The other models are more amplified with that, which may help explain the more generous precip distribution farther n/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The winter equivalent of getting the severe season in September. Might as well get used to it - See the Chicago Weather Records thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, mimillman said: This should be close enough Thanks. As others have said, don't expect particularly good ratios with this. I actually think we could be a little under 10:1 for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Seasonal futility is probably off the table since we'll probably nickel and dime our way up into the teens eventually. Long ways off but this looks like a typical wussy 1-2 or 1-3" type event for the majority of the DVN cwa. At least it will look more wintry which is a big change from the unrelenting brown seen 95% of this met winter up to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I remember a time when we would get that last second NW move or a storm over performing where have those days gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Baum said: At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Quote 12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: I remember a time when we would get that last second NW move or a storm over performing where have those days gone. Maybe next year when we get rid of the Niña. The last couple years have been rough. Late Jan-mid Feb 2021 was the last solid wintry period we had in the north/northwest burbs. Things got deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Some of you give up too easy. Caveats aside, 18z NAM looks like it would go somewhat nuke at 84 and beyond. Regardless, think a decent event is still on the table for many. It’s still only Saturday… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Some of you give up too easy. Caveats aside, 18z NAM looks like it would go somewhat nuke at 84 and beyond. Regardless, think a decent event is still on the table for many. It’s still only Saturday… Wait, you are optimistic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 18z nam is looking decent. Taking on a nice neg tilt at h5. But it's also nam and its long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 18z nam is looking decent. Taking on a nice neg tilt at h5. But it's also nam and its long range. don't forget it was the first run of the NAM in range that showed the 12/22-23 event was going to fail. And yes, can be chalked up to the blind squirrell theory but it did happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Wait, you are optimistic? Sure. I'm not calling for feet of snow obviously, but a decent event looks probable to me. The higher upside possibility is probably a longer shot...but again, it's Saturday. We've got plenty of time for this get better, or worse. I get it that some people are big dog hunters, but man I'd take any amount of snow at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, Baum said: don't forget it was the first run of the NAM in range that showed the 12/22-23 event was going to fail. And yes, can be chalked up to the blind squirrell theory but it did happen. That is a valid point. Here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Some of you give up too easy. Ride the seasonal trend. Ready to call it up here… the “double duster”. A dusting tonight that melts tomorrow, and fringe flurry fest for the mid-week system. Can’t wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Updated mood: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, tuanis said: Ride the seasonal trend. Ready to call it up here… the “double duster”. A dusting tonight that melts tomorrow, and fringe flurry fest for the mid-week system. Can’t wait The positive thing is that the GFS is pretty much by itself with its handling of the northern end of the precip shield. Hopefully you can at least pull an inch or two there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The positive thing is that the GFS is pretty much by itself with its handling of the northern end of the precip shield. Hopefully you can at least pull an inch or two there. SHE doesn't want "an inch or two" 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Maybe some mood flakes for saukville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Is this March/April? We shouldn't be fighting to keep temps below freezing so far north of the surface low in the dead of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 43 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro About 3 mb stronger and just a tick north than 12z. Maybe the start of a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Long range NAM gonna NAM? Or some good trending for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Chicago916 said: Long range NAM gonna NAM? Or some good trending for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Chicago916 said: Long range NAM gonna NAM? Or some good trending for once? yep. certainly much more backside snowfall over a good sized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looks like the orientation of the trailing energy that comes onshore will make or break the storm. Looks like that won't make it to the NW until 24-36 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Baum said: yep. certainly much more backside snowfall over a good sized area. The GFS is pretty much on its own with the suppressed precip shield. Like I said earlier, I think it could be in the way it handles the wave coming into the northern US vs the other models. I'n not sure what else it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Look at the differences in the Plains between the 18z GFS and 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Ready 2 b buried* *2.5" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Ready 2 b buried* *2.5" in these times that's buried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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