RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon. Liking the GEM looks and apparently so is DTX. Overnight more bullish than I can remember this office being: The quiet weather comes to an end Wednesday as the next winter storm targets the region. Unlike many of the recent systems that have curled north over the Midwest keeping us on the warm side of the storm, models have held firm with a more southern track with the surface and mid level lows tracking from Texas (Wed 00Z) up to Ohio (Thurs 00Z) with southern MI solidly on the northwestern flank of the system. Many ingredients are becoming favorable for an accumulating snowfall over the area. The surface low will be maturing near the area, favorable mid level deformation noses into the southern Great Lakes, entrance region dynamics from an exiting jet and exit region dynamics from rapidly approaching jet, deformation region passing over the area, and a wealth of moisture to name a few. Just how much snow will fall remains in question as we are still 5 days out and a shift south would keep us more in a light snow scenario, and north could push heaviest snow to the north. For now we`ll highlight the potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday morning through the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2.5 final call 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Liking the GEM looks and apparently so is DTX. Overnight more bullish than I can remember this office being: Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Looks like the energy for this storm didn't quite make it to land prior to 12z runs but might just in time for 18z if that changes anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 57 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Hopefully with it's current trajectory, us in NW OH can only get in the way of DET. The canopy of this storm, as currently projected, looks to be quite large as long as you're NW of the low track.. This type of storm track is typically a solid 6-10” for the region absolutely. Still the model spread won’t be clear until Monday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 46 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs. Personally I think a little bit more N stream interaction will be back in play and shift the swath a bit NW more in line with the 21/0z GEM's portrayal. Can we get a 989 mb curving up just to our east like it shows (ala PV Bliz) Idk. One can hope. 9 minutes ago, nwohweather said: This type of storm track is typically a solid 6-10” for the region absolutely. Still the model spread won’t be clear until Monday night Yep. Solid GRR advisory level system in play for SEMI/NWOH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: 2.5 final call I’ll take the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: 12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive. Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window. I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Consensus track starting to form with the operationals anyways. Not been a good trend for MBY on the past two runs. The naysayers maybe right again. At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Still time. Heads to Michiana or Ohio I'll be headed that way mid week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, Baum said: Consensus track starting to form with the operationals anyways. Not been a good trend for MBY on the past two runs. The naysayers maybe right again. At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Still time. Heads to Michiana or Ohio I'll be headed that way mid week. DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage Even if this one doesn't produce much in northern IL, you know that the big dog futility record won't be broken. Pattern looks too active going forward and lighter events add up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage did you just copy and paste this post from each of the past 5 winters? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Baum said: did you just copy and paste this post from each of the past 5 winters? Definitely in a dead zone. Even Madison has cashed in a little this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Wow. I get it that it's been puke-worthy so far, but give this some time, like a few days before throwing towels (you ORD Peeps). Just need the GEM to hold serve and amp a bit at the last minute. All will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Definitely in a dead zone. Even Madison has cashed in a little this winter Yeah 23” so far this winter. Only 1” below average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Still have to wait on the Euro for our final 12z operational data point, but did want to note that the foreign models (12z GEM and UKMET and 00z Euro) have a more expansive precip shield with light to moderate snow accums farther north. The GFS has the sharp NW cutoff that's seemingly more common in these setups. This is despite relatively similar surface low tracks and mid and upper level depictions. There's probably another physical reason beyond this, but simplest way to see the difference is that foreign models have much higher 850 mb RH farther north than the GFS. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Based on recent trends this should end up being an advisory level event here. But we should build up a decent snowpack with the clipper following right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage Seconded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still have to wait on the Euro for our final 12z operational data point, but did want to note that the foreign models (12z GEM and UKMET and 00z Euro) have a more expansive precip shield with light to moderate snow accums farther north. The GFS has the sharp NW cutoff that's seemingly more common in these setups. This is despite relatively similar surface low tracks and mid and upper level depictions. There's probably another physical reason beyond this, but simplest way to see the difference is that foreign models have much higher 850 mb RH farther north than the GFS. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk It does seem a little strange that the GFS doesn't bring some light precip farther north. The mid level features don't seem prohibitively far south. Also don't really have a robust surface high to dramatically reinforce/suppress the northwest end of the precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Euro has more of a spread the wealth light to moderate snow event for many with a steady state low. Seems like the energy is really going into the costal transfer and ramping up a big nor'easter. But curious if we really will get the snow shield to expand that nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Euro has more of a spread the wealth light to moderate snow event for many with a steady state low. Seems like the energy is really going into the costal transfer and ramping up a big nor'easter. But curious if we really will get the snow shield to expand that nw. I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this. It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Because the GFS is more of an outlier now, I'm currently leaning toward the foreign guidance to be more likely on the right track. The warning type event is less likely, but that may not mean a whiff (maybe ALEK was onto something haha). Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Not sure if any website has this capability, but can someone post a Euro snow map for the entire storm with this weekend's system subtracted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this. It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either) Yeah I have as well. I was speaking more from the low strength perspective. Before it was sub 1000mb and even strengthening. However, now it seems to be more of a steady state low 1000's but in the scheme of things it doesn't really impact how it's going to evolve here in the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 35 minutes ago, mimillman said: Seconded Several recent ORD Februarys are insulted by those posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure if any website has this capability, but can someone post a Euro snow map for the entire storm with this weekend's system subtracted? The closest I could get is 24hr 10:1 or Kuchera on pivotalwx. However it cuts it close on some areas catching everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: The closest I could get is 24hr 10:1 or Kuchera on pivotalwx. However it cuts it close on some areas catching everything Yeah. Perfect would be a 36 or 48 hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah. Perfect would be a 36 or 48 hr map. This should be close enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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