Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 It's too bad that the airmass with this system isn't colder. Southern Lake Michigan water temps are running around mid 30s near the shore to about 40 farther out in the lake, which seems to me like it's probably warmer than average. It looks cold enough to get some lake enhanced precip going, especially later on in the storm, but this is not likely to be a big contributor to totals along the western shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Today's CPC "cone" of expectations: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 DTX less descriptive than GRR by a long shot although given the timerange there is reasonable agreement among the deterministic models.A meaningful snow for SE MI becomes increasingly possible if thistrack can hold going forward in upcoming forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 00z GFS - not what you want to see in northern IL and points west. Short wave gets buried too far south in the desert southwest. It's also a hair less robust so it stays positively tilted for longer and results in a farther south low path that isn't able to track more sharply northeast. Still ends up good for farther south and east in the subforum, because other favorable aspects remain in play. The GFS isn't exactly a paragon of consistency, but it can be used to demonstrate what we don't want to see happen to get a good event up to Chicagoland. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 What we're all waiting for is final call time from Alek. Should get it tomorrow one would think, though weekend casts some doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 00z GFS - not what you want to see in northern IL and points west. Short wave gets buried too far south in the desert southwest. It's also a hair less robust so it stays positively tilted for longer and results in a farther south low path that isn't able to track more sharply northeast. Still ends up good for farther south and east in the subforum, because other favorable aspects remain in play. The GFS isn't exactly a paragon of consistency, but it can be used to demonstrate what we don't want to see happen to get a good event up to Chicagoland. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Hopefully not a "trend" and maybe just a bad run. But definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. Probably going to see a lot of flip flopping until the system gets sampled which I'm guessing won't be till end of weekend or early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 As you stated too many pieces all have to fall in place just right. At least the miss SE is showing up early. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Despite the unfavorable GFS OP, the GFS ensemble members look fairly similar at least for now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 As you stated too many pieces all have to fall in place just right. At least the miss SE is showing up early. Yep, this idea was already firmly in the realm of possibility per the ensemble members. It's a pretty fine line - was hoping to convey that to AFD readers today, in simplest terms, the surface low track with respect to the Ohio River will loom large in determining the haves and have nots. Unsurprisingly, the GEFS ticked slightly south vs. 18z, but honestly not bad at this range, with still a solid # of members with a good hit up into the metro. I don't feel any worse locally because of this run, other than that we remain in a precarious spot, and north metro even more so vs. my location on DuPage/Will border. The Canucks need to get their act together with the GEM running late, so us junkies have another data point for the 00z cycle lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep, this idea was already firmly in the realm of possibility per the ensemble members. It's a pretty fine line - was hoping to convey that to AFD readers today, in simplest terms, the surface low track with respect to the Ohio River will loom large in determining the haves and have nots. Unsurprisingly, the GEFS ticked slightly south vs. 18z, but honestly not bad at this range, with still a solid # of members with a good hit up into the metro. I don't feel any worse locally because of this run, other than that we remain in a precarious spot, and north metro even more so vs. my location on DuPage/Will border. The Canucks need to get their act together with the GEM running late, so us junkies have another data point for the 00z cycle lol. And the Europeans even more so making us staying up so late to see 0z runs at almost midnight. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Hopefully not a "trend" and maybe just a bad run. But definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. Probably going to see a lot of flip flopping until the system gets sampled which I'm guessing won't be till end of weekend or early next week. The GFS was a fast outlier with our main wave going back to the model runs 24-36 hours ago - it's now closer to the consensus, with main issue being how far south it digs the wave. Something to watch vs. getting overly concerned at this point. With the latest GEFS showing the spectrum of plausible outcomes better than it seems to do usually, the Euro suite should be a little more helpful given the sheer number of members, plus the better overall performing op model. RAOB sampling wise, should get partial sampling 00z Sunday and close to full 12z Sunday. The satellite derived stuff is so much better now, plus any over Pacific aircraft data can help, so this might be a more stable forecast (big picture) than some of our events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The GFS was a fast outlier with our main wave going back to the model runs 24-36 hours ago - it's now closer to the consensus, with main issue being how far south it digs the wave. Something to watch vs. getting overly concerned at this point. With the latest GEFS showing the spectrum of plausible outcomes better than it seems to do usually, the Euro suite should be a little more helpful given the sheer number of members, plus the better overall performing op model. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Totally agree. I always put more faith in euro and its ensemble guidance over gfs. Though with the Christmas storm every model was a trainwreck. Lol. Curious to see if euro holds where it is or if it goes se like 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Fully expect to ride the northwest fringe with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Come SE, baby. Come to papa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Models have this upper low dipping across the Mexico border. That's simply too far south for Iowa. We need this to move east across NM and into the TX panhandle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum. Think about it, you can only trend north for so long before you run out of room. This slight step back just ensures we have space for the perfect positive trend finish. The pre Christmas storm was literally too far north before it collapsed to shit. Don't worry- yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Think about it, you can only trend north for so long before you run out of room. This slight step back just ensures we have space for the perfect positive trend finish. The pre Christmas storm was literally too far north before it collapsed to shit. Don't worry- yet. That one was ridiculously north days out. At least this one looks realistic. Would be nice to see that 500mb low dig less than it is. Looking at models looks like we could have a sampling by late tomorrow and for sure by early Sun. So hopefully that will help models hone in on track. I'm definitely sucked into this storm already but never got my hopes up fully expecting a downward trend like the Xmas Storm. But maybe this one can surprise us. Not holding my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum. That run was hurt by the h5 low digging a bit farther southwest, but even more so, comparing to 12z, positive tilt of the parent wave valid Tuesday night-early Wednesday vs neutral to negative tilt on the 12z run. The farther south h5 low path hopefully ticks back some on the next model cycles, though might very well be a meaningful data point, while the other element is much more uncertain. Any farther south with the parent wave definitely will make it tougher to get a far enough north surface low track because then you'd need to be more reliant on wave going full negative tilt. The 00z operational runs showed the caution flags in this setup - I think we'll have a decent idea by Sunday on which way things are leaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: That run was hurt by the h5 low digging a bit farther southwest, but even more so, comparing to 12z, positive tilt of the parent wave valid Tuesday night-early Wednesday vs neutral to negative tilt on the 12z run. The farther south h5 low path hopefully ticks back some on the next model cycles, though might very well be a meaningful data point, while the other element is much more uncertain. Any farther south with the parent wave definitely will make it tougher to get a far enough north surface low track because then you'd need to be more reliant on wave going full negative tilt. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Do you think sampling of the upper wave will give any meaningful changes? Seems like anymore it's a crapshoot depending on how many RAOB sites it passes over. Definitely would be more beneficial to get a neutral to negative tilt sooner and an h5 wave to dig less south. Esp since now this storm is being driven solely by the southern stream wave with no phasing with the northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Not only does the main closed wave location factor in, but phasing/shearing with additional waves diving SE in the trough are a significant thing to watch in the coming days as well. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models have this upper low dipping across the Mexico border. That's simply too far south for Iowa. We need this to move east across NM and into the TX panhandle. The 1/25/78 blizzard low dipped into northern Mexico, then to Louisiana, to Nashville, to Columbus. Just saying. I still have old surface maps that I drew at the time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 GFS and EURO trend of digging deeper in the SW and more positive tilt as it ejects is no bueno for a more north path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 it's never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, Baum said: it's never easy. Let's see if we can break the streak and get a system that continues to be respectable and strengthens as it heads NE. I'm still feeling good about this one. Our patience has to pay off eventually... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Even if 0Z CMC verifies that's a southern LOT to DTW track. Seen this rerun too often last few yrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Northwest Ohio getting crushed Hr 114 just means that this is for sure heading for Detroit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Northwest Ohio getting crushed Hr 114 just means that this is for sure heading for Detroit Iol I've always felt bad for toledo/monroe/ nw Ohio cause the bands almost always used to end up further nw but nowadays I'm not so sure. It's hasn't happened in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Northwest Ohio getting crushed Hr 114 just means that this is for sure heading for Detroit Hopefully with it's current trajectory, us in NW OH can only get in the way of DET. The canopy of this storm, as currently projected, looks to be quite large as long as you're NW of the low track.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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