Baum Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Factual, I think around here GHD II came very close in terms of total snowfall but the duration was longer and the winds were much less extreme. I remember parts of GHD vividly -true core memories- like no other snowstorm despite it being the earliest big storm I can remember. In the industry I'm in along with my love for snow I can recall every major snow event in Chicago since the early 70's(only 5 in the '67 storm) nothing compares to the wind/accumulation/ Lighting/Thunder. It's not close really. And GHD is offended it had so called offspring. My hope is it returns and takes vengeance on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Haha. Cuz I'm more use to disappointment than snowstorms panning out. PTSD. Also there's too many damn GHD day storms to remember. Lol. As much as I want to hope it ends up as nw as gem and gfs I'm not getting my hopes up because a more se like euro also is just as plausible. All comes down to the phasing. My works Christmas party got canceled due to the pre Christmas "storm" on 12/22. Just announced earlier this week it is rescheduled for 1/25. Holding out hope they have to cancel yet again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Baum said: just looking those amounts it should have been called "GHD Mini Me"...if you were in the original ..you know. Even GHD ll was not close IMO as far as a snowstorm event. The 3-part GHD saga is kind of like The Godfather trilogy. First two were great, the 3rd pretty decent but doesn't quite measure up to the first two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The 3-part GHD saga is kind of like The Godfather trilogy. First two were great, the 3rd pretty decent but doesn't quite measure up to the first two. For DTW GHD2 hands down was the winner. GHD1- 10.3" GHD2- 16.7" GHD3- 9.3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The 3-part GHD saga is kind of like The Godfather trilogy. First two were great, the 3rd pretty decent but doesn't quite measure up to the first two. GHD-2 is the last storm where I remember every model cranking it up as we closed in. The good old days…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 49 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I hate where I'm sitting. In a JAN that's acting more like a NOV, fears of UHI screwing me are legit. This thing surges too strong and it's going to push a ton of warmth up with it. I can see most of my qpf wasted on liquid yet again. Talk me out it, lol Track may screw us, UHI will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Track may screw us, UHI will not. I wish I knew what exactly makes you state that? I live right on the western edge of it and it is a legit 3F or more difference in just a handful of miles to my west. Many times since moving here I've watched my car thermo drop those amounts as I head west (county line just 4 mi). One time I've seen it more like a 6 or 8 deg drop. In a marginal situation even a few degrees can make the difference between legit SN and white RN. This place knows how to screw-up a snowstorm, that's for certain. If there's any consolation, a more favorable NE wind is preferable to the dreaded SE like at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, RogueWaves said: I wish I knew what exactly makes you state that? I live right on the western edge of it and it is a legit 3F or more difference in just a handful of miles to my west. Many times since moving here I've watched my car thermo drop those amounts as I head west (county line just 4 mi). One time I've seen it more like a 6 or 8 deg drop. In a marginal situation even a few degrees can make the difference between legit SN and white RN. This place knows how to screw-up a snowstorm, that's for certain. If there's any consolation, a more favorable NE wind is preferable to the dreaded SE like at Christmas. UHI is typically something that's most pronounced on calm clear nights. I can honestly tell you I have never seen a storm that has solely screwed us because of UHI. Again, track is one thing but I wouldn't worry about UHI. Also, you're fairly new to the area so I don't believe you've experienced some of those Eastside specials that you always lamented while you lived further west. At this point of course nothing to do but watch the model mayhem unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: UHI is typically something that's most pronounced on calm clear nights. I can honestly tell you I have never seen a storm that has solely screwed us because of UHI. Again, track is one thing but I wouldn't worry about UHI. Also, you're fairly new to the area so I don't believe you've experienced some of those Eastside specials that you always lamented while you lived further west. At this point of course nothing to do but watch the model mayhem unfold. Ikr. This is my 3rd straight winter of next to nothing to track/watch/be excited for so I've become a rather cynic's cynic! Also likely suffering from a bad case of SAD on top of the lack of snow events. Lets see if Sunday's little thing can do something, anything to increase my outlook on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 No clue why this thread is so active 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Ikr. This is my 3rd straight winter of next to nothing to track/watch/be excited for so I've become a rather cynic's cynic! Also likely suffering from a bad case of SAD on top of the lack of snow events. Lets see if Sunday's little thing can do something, anything to increase my outlook on Wednesday. The last 2 Februaries were rocking though. Snow depth was over a foot here in February of 2021. So basically season snowfall the last 2 winters was around average. This year not so much. I do understand the SAD though, lots of people have it with the constant overcast. I don't expect much Sunday but I'm definitely looking at Wednesday with cautious optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: Factual, I think around here GHD II came very close in terms of total snowfall but the duration was longer and the winds were much less extreme. I remember parts of GHD vividly -true core memories- like no other snowstorm despite it being the earliest big storm I can remember. You should've been on here for GHD. To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for. The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The last 2 Februaries were rocking though. Snow depth was over a foot here in February of 2021. So basically season snowfall the last 2 winters was around average. This year not so much. I do understand the SAD though, lots of people have it with the constant overcast. I don't expect much Sunday but I'm definitely looking at Wednesday with cautious optimism. Not to be off topic too much, but Marshall was a screw-hole for all but that one single week in mid-February. That was my one legit Storm Warning in the last 4.5 winters. We had deep snow cover for a week, then torched and winter was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You should've been on here for GHD. To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for. The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun. Still remember @A-L-E-K Jeb walking in 70 mph at the lakeshore. Was geeked for mby too when certain outlets were showing maps of 20-25" across SMI. Thought I was going to finally see a legit CAT-5 monster. Was quite deflating when it only delivered about 10 or 11" half of the over-hyped amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 GHD-2 is the last storm where I remember every model cranking it up as we closed in. The good old days…. Best more recent examples of that probably Jan 30-31, 2021 with good near term trends for much of the CWA except far west and southwest, and Feb 14-16, 2021 for Chicago. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, mimillman said: No clue why this thread is so active Because it's something to track whether it ends in heartbreak or not for much of the forum. This 1st disturbance this weekend is meh. This one has real potential but equally high bust potential or just simply a miss for a good chunk of our northern subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 You should've been on here for GHD. To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for. The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun. My personal favorites are Jan 4-5, 2014 and GHD II. I had an account during GHD I but definitely wasn't active in the storm threads for that, if I posted at all. Have read through the GHD I storm threads a few times though. Great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You should've been on here for GHD. To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for. The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun. Unfortunately I was still pretty young for GHD. Believe me, I'll forever be sad that I didn't get to experience that thread first hand. The very first thing I did when I first made my account was go looking for it, and I've read it several times since. Same for GHD II. Don't even know what tools you guys had access to/existed back in 2011, but I can only imagine what it would be like to sit here and watch a storm like that come to life. My dream snowstorm basically comes hand in hand with at least a couple threads filled with hype, shitposts, and professional meteorological insight combined. Alas, I can only provide the first two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 If the pieces come together right, the air mass gives vibes of Feb 24, 2016 - think lower ratio and needing to be in the heaviest banding for good totals. Obviously don't want to repeat that nightmarish gradient in the Chicago metro, though for the areas affected, that was probably a top 10 event since 2010. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z gfs certainly amped. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS is a dream scenario here. I’d take the Canadian too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: If the pieces come together right, the air mass gives vibes of Feb 24, 2016 - think lower ratio and needing to be in the heaviest banding for good totals. Obviously don't want to repeat that nightmarish gradient in the Chicago metro, though for the areas affected, that was probably a top 10 event since 2010. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Was on the good side of that gradient and would certainly put it in the top 10 since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 from LOT this AM: STILL NOTING PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ALREADY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MISS SOUTH. BLENDED OFFERING OF HIGHER- END CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. this is called ride the 3 year trend, and hope for a reversal of fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Wagons west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Wagons west 1/20/23 06Z GFS is the standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 best model of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Baum said: from LOT this AM: STILL NOTING PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ALREADY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MISS SOUTH. BLENDED OFFERING OF HIGHER- END CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. this is called ride the 3 year trend, and hope for a reversal of fate. Wonderful reminiscing about storms of the past. Hard to imagine they ever came to fruition given the tenuous timing and pieces that all need to fall in place to produce snow in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Wonderful reminiscing about storms of the past. Hard to imagine they ever came to fruition given the tenuous timing and pieces that all need to fall in place to produce snow in this region. we're due. Hope springs eternal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Never good when you're rooting for goofus/canadian models to be right. Lol. Would be nice if euro would bump nw more in line with them but that would just be too nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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