OHweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle?? ILN largely did that due to concerns that snowing an inch an hour during the commute in Cincinnati and Dayton would be a mess as opposed to any confidence in reaching warning criteria snow totals. We'll see if it pays off, as if it trends north the thump of snow would occur north of Cincinnati. Not everyone would've issued that watch but I appreciate the reasoning. I didn't have the confidence to go with a wider watch for "impacts" into our CWA today, though some models certainly suggest it's not impossible that northern OH gets good snow even east of the low track. Front end thumps can be sneaky when the forcing is robust. I'm just excited that it looks to snow half decently for a wide area, especially on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, OHweather said: ILN largely did that due to concerns that snowing an inch an hour during the commute in Cincinnati and Dayton would be a mess as opposed to any confidence in reaching warning criteria snow totals. We'll see if it pays off, as if it trends north the thump of snow would occur north of Cincinnati. Not everyone would've issued that watch but I appreciate the reasoning. I didn't have the confidence to go with a wider watch for "impacts" into our CWA today, though some models certainly suggest it's not impossible that northern OH gets good snow even east of the low track. Front end thumps can be sneaky when the forcing is robust. I'm just excited that it looks to snow half decently for a wide area, especially on the front end. I just finished reading their updates. Agree with the impact-based reasoning/decision. I remember some awesome front-enders years ago and it is a traffic nightmare that a simple last-minute WWA headline or SWS doesn't do justice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 This really could have been a special storm with just a bit less confluence over Ontario/Quebec. Oh well... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 44 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Lol hrrr also has the screw zone over me. Peoria dome lives on. But obviously mesoscale banding impossible to nail till the day of. ILX cracking me up. Sadly I don't know if they are correct and LSX is a bit agressive, but the advisory map lools funky Think they could have at least issued an advisory this afternoon. Lackluster system at best for here regardless, don't want a 2nd half of winter 1st half spring winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: This really could have been a special storm with just a bit less confluence over Ontario/Quebec. Oh well... For here, the old saying that it's always something applies. Hard-hitter storms for Detroit Metro proper are a rare breed. Feb '65, Jan '92 are the only two that come to mind where they were free to shoot north in Canada without the dreaded dry slot or WTOD mode so common. Don't remember if 2/5/11 kept going north in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 59 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: HRRR is solid for the Detroit area and points south! Out to what hour? Only goes to h18 on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 WPC seems to be going with the NAM camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: For here, the old saying that it's always something applies. Hard-hitter storms for Detroit Metro proper are a rare breed. Feb '65, Jan '92 are the only two that come to mind where they were free to shoot north in Canada without the dreaded dry slot or WTOD mode so common. Don't remember if 2/5/11 kept going north in Canada? Feb 1965 was definitely a good storm in a fairly boring decade, but I don't get the whole love affair with it from so many people. It dropped 11 to 12" and was fairly long duration. You hear about that more than here about 1974 with almost 20". The 17" storm in 2015 was from a bowling ball type storm though. Maybe that's why those are my favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Out to what hour? Only goes to h18 on TT 00, 06, 12, 18z go to 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: ILX cracking me up. Sadly I don't know if they are correct and LSX is a bit agressive, but the advisory map lools funky Think they could have at least issued an advisory this afternoon. Lackluster system at best for here regardless, don't want a 2nd half of winter 1st half spring winter. They always wait last second to issue waa. Idk why. You definitely aren't in a bad spot for a solid advisory snow. I'm thinking probably 1-2in more likely with 3-4in absolute best case scenario here in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: For here, the old saying that it's always something applies. Hard-hitter storms for Detroit Metro proper are a rare breed. Feb '65, Jan '92 are the only two that come to mind where they were free to shoot north in Canada without the dreaded dry slot or WTOD mode so common. Don't remember if 2/5/11 kept going north in Canada? It's funny you mention January 1992. There are synoptic similarities with this storm and that one, with the big difference being the SE ridge is more surpressed. So yeah, this one gets sheared apart. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1992/us0113.php#picture As far as 2/5/11, it did track further SE than this one looks to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Feb 1965 was definitely a good storm in a fairly boring decade, but I don't get the whole love affair with it from so many people. It dropped 11 to 12" and was fairly long duration. You hear about that more than here about 1974 with almost 20". The 17" storm in 2015 was from a bowling ball type storm though. Maybe that's why those are my favorites. This is my first time hearing about that 1965 storm, lol. 1974 was by far the more exciting storm based on everything I've heard/read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 15 minutes ago, Powerball said: This is my first time hearing about that 1965 storm, lol. 1974 was by far the more exciting storm based on everything I've heard/read. Very dynamic and cold storm w/high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 0z NAM reflecting CLE's mention of the SLP "drifting east" as it occludes and x-fers. Lingers snows here all night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 ..aaand we've lost the ORD crew 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Can't say I blame them. Doesn't look great there nor for my area. But with how crappy this winter has been I will take what I can get. At least pattern looks active after this and colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Powerball said: This really could have been a special storm with just a bit less confluence over Ontario/Quebec. Oh well... I think without the confluence, this thing prob tracks through west Michigan so I guess it's atleast giving us the chance at a decent snowstorm. Still not big enough for me to hop on a plane for and fly home. There hasn't been one worthy storm the past 4 years to get me to fly home. Sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Lol 0z euro. Very anemic on snow totals and can see why. It gets temps into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. Feel like with its larger resolution it may be underestimating dynamic/evaporative cooling somewhat. Temps will definitely be at or a little above freezing but not sure about upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 00z Euro has the upper energy digging southward into Iowa pulling some moisture back northwestward through cyclone and into northeast Iowa. Models have been teasing this a bit, but it comes and goes. It wasn't there on the 12z Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 00z Euro has the upper energy digging southward into Iowa pulling some moisture back northwestward through cyclone and into northeast Iowa. Models have been teasing this a bit, but it comes and goes. It wasn't there on the 12z Euro.Yep have been noting that on other guidance too. The Euro as you noted had kind of lost that look for a few cycles. It's going to snow over a large area due to that northern stream influence vs. the classic sharp cutoff northwest. Pretty interesting forecast in that the heaviest banding will be tucked in atypically close to the surface low while the lighter accumulating snows will expand well north and west. Also tricky from a headline perspective because I think the snow falling Wednesday beyond mid-late morning will be pretty low impact due to the temps at or above freezing. I think we're probably starting out with an advisory for the I-80 and south counties and then the day shift can make adjustments northward if needed. Some of the metro counties and into Chicago are a tougher call. The initial snow could come down at a decent clip, so if confidence grows in impacts to the commute, we may need an advisory for at least up to central Cook zone and probably DuPage. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep have been noting that on other guidance too. The Euro as you noted had kind of lost that look for a few cycles. It's going to snow over a large area due to that northern stream influence vs. the classic sharp cutoff northwest. Pretty interesting forecast in that the heaviest banding will be tucked in atypically close to the surface low while the lighter accumulating snows will expand well north and west. Also tricky from a headline perspective because I think the snow falling Wednesday beyond mid-late morning will be pretty low impact due to the temps at or above freezing. I think we're probably starting out with an advisory for the I-80 and south counties and then the day shift can make adjustments northward if needed. Some of the metro counties and into Chicago are a tougher call. The initial snow could come down at a decent clip, so if confidence grows in impacts to the commute, we may need an advisory for at least up to central Cook zone and probably DuPage. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The Cook/Lake IN area has been the most interesting for me as to what your office will decide to do from a headline perspective. There's an added complication for Cook though in that even if rates are decent initially, temps may be just above freezing especially closer to the lake, thus calling into question how bad the road conditions would actually be for the commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Shit like this causes mental illness around here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Guess it's almost time to see if we can awaken the nw last min trick for the first time in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 call looking $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Still riding 1.5" Might have mood flakes for Sunday Norgi ski jump event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Models in pretty good agreement around here now. QPF range from 0.20-0.30". Looks like we'll be stuck in a subby zone between the northern fgen band and the system bands to the south/southeast. Lowering my call to 1-3", will go with 2.2" final to be exact. Only question is whether I'll have any snow left on the ground by the end of Wednesday, as it looks to torch in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Still riding 1.5" Might have mood flakes for Sunday Norgi ski jump event. kinda want to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I feel like this is a storm where 1-2 degrees is going to matter immensely, and I wonder if there's a chance that these models are overdoing the temperature a tad bit. I don't deny that it's likely we will see rain in this system somewhere, but what I'm sitting here thinking is we have a few inches of snow on the ground here in Cincy, so I wonder if that will help keep the temperature cool. Upper 30s isn't necessarily hard to believe, don't get me wrong, but 1-2 degrees could be the difference between 4-6 inches of snow (the ILN office is calling for that) and a mostly rain-only event, so I'm just not certain I'm confident at this point in that 4-6 inch call. The ILN office has us reaching 39 degrees, but if snowpack affects that enough, I could see us topping at the 36 degree range. I guess TLDR, I have a hard time believing ILN after looking at these models, and while I do think that warm air bubble is going to matter and certainly will reach Kentucky in some fashion, I could see it being overdone for sure. All I know is that gradient over Cincinnati is gutwrenching. My call, if I had to make one, would be 3-6 inches, but I wouldn't bet on it. There are just too many unknowns. But it'll certainly be exciting, if nothing else, to see how it progresses through the midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looks like the 6z Euro bumped a little north. Been watching that STL to LAF to FWA area on the models. Think that corridor may be the jack zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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