Chambana Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Kurchera vs. 10:1. Pick your fighter. Either works for me. Solid event. The ole 8”er would be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Kurchera vs. 10:1. Pick your fighter. Now post the snow depth map from pivotal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! It's odd when I'm the more tempered one. At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa. But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's odd when I'm the more tempered one. At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa. But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite. I’m thinking 2-4” in my hood. I know that’s wild and crazy thinking! But, I think the southeast 1/3 of LOT’s CWA warrants an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's odd when I'm the more tempered one. At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa. But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite. Still lots (LOT's) of time for Chi-town Peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 You would think the NAM would’ve started backing off, the closer we get. Instead, it’s doubling down. Just a junk model. Well, most of them are it seems… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle?? 18Z GFS says SW OH is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 the NAM is an easy toss for around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle?? would love some more of it here in cincy but i have no room to complain thanks to sunday's surprise. local mets are steadily trying to raise awareness with each new model run but i dont want to bite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: 18Z GFS says SW OH is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle?? Dtx sneakily issuing watches for the city but leaves out macomb. Macomb thanks them cause areas that see less headlines, always end up with more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 38 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I’m thinking 2-4” in my hood. I know that’s wild and crazy thinking! But, I think the southeast 1/3 of LOT’s CWA warrants an advisory. We're actually pretty similar in thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think another issue with this system is it's very compact. That sfc low track is normally good for much of the Chicago metro, but the 850 mb and 700 mb lows are tucked in closer to the surface low than typically occurs. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: 18Z GFS says SW OH is in the game. Front-end thump snow like we used to get a lot of in late 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nobody in Michigan is getting more then 4 or 5 inches. This is a midwest low moisture storm, classic poor performer. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I'm riding Malacka11's favorite model at 10:1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: I think another issue with this system is it's very compact. That sfc low track is normally good for much of the Chicago metro, but the 850 mb and 700 mb lows are tucked in closer to the surface low than typically occurs. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Solid observation. Not the best tilting with this system. We've had surface lows way down in southern/eastern Kentucky that produced good snows into the southern metro (2/13/07 is one example). Can probably find even more dramatic examples than that in storms w/a good inverted trough extending well north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Jonger said: Nobody in Michigan is getting more then 4 or 5 inches. This is a midwest low moisture storm, classic poor performer. A man called jonger (otto). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, WXMan42711 said: So what you're saying is Cincy is back in the game? LET'S GOOO! (and I'm going to hope like a weenie that this map is right; I want more snow!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Would love to ride the nam but I know better. Lol. Gfs/euro make more sense esp given trends of this winter. Plus gfs shows a max se of me and nw of me with Peoria in the lull so definitely bank on that happening. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 40 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said: So what you're saying is Cincy is back in the game? LET'S GOOO! (and I'm going to hope like a weenie that this map is right; I want more snow!) Nam says Cincy ( and me ) getting next to nothing! Gfs is still hopeful though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 For the crazy SREF watchers, going to get a LOL worthy run at 21z. Going to be interesting if by some miracle the American models end up being correct about a stronger more NW storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 18z Euro bumped north very slightly, but not in a meaningful way, and remains very different from the NCEP guidance. In fact, since temperatures will be around to even above freezing, could make a case using the Euro as a perfect prog that we wouldn't need an advisory for most of our counties. The places that have the snow start earlier tomorrow night are probably gonna have enough impacts Wednesday morning to justify an advisory though.While the latest ECMWF is generally a bit lower QPF wise farther north than the foreign guidance, it's probably not a meaningful difference. It's the NCEP guidance that stands out, particularly the NAMs. The GFS is not very different farther north, but it is farther north with the heavier banding across central IL and Indiana than the other globals.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Nobody in Michigan is getting more then 4 or 5 inches. This is a midwest low moisture storm, classic poor performer. If it stays on track Monroe & Wayne County could easily see more than 5". We got 3.7" yesterday with a few good bands from a much, much weaker system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: For the crazy SREF watchers, going to get a LOL worthy run at 21z. Going to be interesting if by some miracle the American models end up being correct about a stronger more NW storm. The spread is bi-modal with a cluster of MB members at 2-4” and a cluster of AR members at 6-8” Not so crazy if you believe one over the other which gets you closer to globals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Ironically enough 21z SREF mean increased from 3.7” from 15z to 5”. Excellent lift in the DGZ for most of the duration of the event, wonder if heavier rates will lead to some dynamic cooling to help ratios out a bit. Going to go with 4” of concrete locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 0z HRRR Indiana looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 HRRR is solid for the Detroit area and points south! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Lol hrrr also has the screw zone over me. Peoria dome lives on. But obviously mesoscale banding impossible to nail till the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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